Thursday, February 18, 2010

Zone 1- Micro Analysis- UK Summit on Afghanistan

Week #104 – Dated 23rd to 29th January 2010
One-day international conference in London
January 28th, 2010
The London Conference on Afghanistan was held last month on the 28th of January, 2010. It was largely perceived as an opportunity for European leaders to showcase their civilian and foreign aid contributions to Afghanistan, convincing a highly skeptical public of the functionality of their Afghan policy and continued troop contributions. The Conference also marks a phase commencing plans for the transition of power, reconciliation and reintegration in the war ravaged nation. According to Gen Stanley McChrystal: "We're here to give time and space to the Afghan people to build a nation"

The conference was attended by regional leaders and representatives of the US led coalition. Iran however was missing from the meetings, reportedly because of its stance that the summit was primarily still aimed at increasing military action in the region. Critics too have pointed out the conspicuous lack of a time table despite ambitious targets for rapidly expanding the Afghan National Army and the police force. Since the American review of its afghan strategy under the Obama regime, a number of international interactions have been underway focusing on a way forward for the destabilized region.

Last year on June 11-12 an international conference entitled, "Afghanistan, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Eurasian Security and Geopolitics," took place in Kyrgyzstan. It focused on proposed participation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in an Afghani crisis resolution and future development.

More recently, leading up to the London summit a one day regional summit was held in Turkey on the 25th of January 2010. The summit was the fourth in a series of high level meetings between the three nations and primarily focused on economic and security issues pertinent to regional stability. The summit was later extended to another cooperation initiative called the ‘Summit of Friendship and Cooperation in the Heart of Asia’. High level officials from China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Iran were in attendance; however India was excluded from the proceedings in lieu of Pakistan’s reservations.

At an earlier date Ministerial level talks were also held in Islamabad on January 16, 2010 where Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan affirmed their trilateral cooperation as a key to peace and stability in Afghanistan, while proclaiming that any regional arrangement for resolving the Afghan conflict should co-opt only immediate neighbors of the war-ravaged country.

Among the regional stake holders Iran’s reserved stance towards the international summit and its refusal to participate has been attributed to the view that the event aimed at “focusing on more military action rather than exploring the real roots of the problem.” British Foreign Secretary and conference chairman David Miliband criticized Tehran’s decision and termed it "inexplicable." However, according to one analyst Iran’s stance towards the London Conference reflects the concerns of regional stakeholders who are deeply concerned about the ambitious policy of the US to encourage India, marginalize Pakistan and use ‘moderate’ Taliban against ‘hostile regional players’ in Asia.

Meanwhile on the Indian front the national debate has been divided regarding the extent of Indian involvement in Afghanistan. One segment is of the view (reflected in the words of C. Raja in the Indian Express)that following India’s great run in Afghanistan in Phase One (2001 till until recently), stasis has gripped India’s security policy in recent months and maneuvering by the Pakistan army now threaten to ‘marginalize Delhi in Phase Two.’ Contrary to this view another analyst in the Indian daily ‘The Hindu’ opined that the London summit has exposed India’s ‘flawed Afghan policy’. According to him in 1997-98 Delhi perhaps made a ‘strategic mistake’ by regarding Afghanistan as a ‘theatre of India-Pakistan rivalry’. Citing Pakistan’s strategic location, he deems Afghanistan’s priority ties with it a logical eventuality.

With the recent developments Pakistan has come forth as a pivotal player, openly asserting its reservations regarding Indian involvement in post war Afghanistan. Pakistan, according to Foreign Minister Qureshi, is of the opinion that the existing mechanisms in place are ‘adequate and working well’, hence there is ‘no need for new regional architecture’. He added that as India has no border with Afghanistan, it does not fit into the scheme, accept perhaps in assisting development. In the recent NATO Military conference in Brussels, COAS General Kiyani too stressed an openly India centric National stance while voicing Pakistan’s willingness to reconsider and renounce its traditional understanding of ‘Strategic Depth’ in the region. The general said “if Afghanistan is peaceful, stable and friendly, we have our strategic depth because our western border is secure.”

According to official sources the aim of the conference, co-hosted by the UK, UN and Afghanistan, was to agree on a clear international plan for the next 18 months in Afghanistan and move forward towards an ultimate transition of power to established local authorities. Where it may have defined the parameters of success and failure and chalked out a co-operative path, critics have still voiced concerns regarding the efficacy of the new strategy in the face of ebbing western optimism. The concluding communiqué declared the conference as a “decisive step towards greater Afghan leadership to secure, stabilize and develop Afghanistan,” an assertion that only time will test.

Bibliography/Related Links:
http://csis.org/publication/regaining-european-foreign-policy-visibility-and-london-conference-afghanistan
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Afghan-Neighbors-Key-Players-Prep-For-London-Conference-82707607.html
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2010/01/2010128165738518879.html
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1957537,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8480368.stm
http://www.rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/derrick/2010/01/london-conference-afghanistan-rebranding-unpopular-war
http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page22313
http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page22312
http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/33129
http://beta.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article100379.ece?homepage=true February 4, 2010
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C01%5C29%5Cstory_29-1-2010_pg7_37
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=222988
http://www.hindustantimes.com/rssfeed/europe/India-a-mute-spectator-at-Afghanistan-summit/Article1-503209.aspx
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/towards-a-grand-summit/573832/
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100202_pakistan_emergence_new_approach_afghanistan
http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/20100128_brief_communique_speaks_withdrawal_afghanistan
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15409496
http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2399
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/04-tripartite-meeting-qs-08
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2010/01/mil-100116-irna01.htm
http://beta.thehindu.com/news/international/article81320.ece
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-199676-turkey-afghanistan-pakistan-summit-focuses-on-stability.html
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/96403/presidents-of-turkey-afghanistan-and-pakistan-meet-.html
http://theglobalrealm.com/2010/02/08/pakistans-military-sets-afghan-terms
http://www.nato.int/ims/news/2010/n100127e.html
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_55016.htm?selectedLocale=en
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/TheLondonConferenceItistimeforIndiatoreassessitsAfghanPolicy_agupta_010210

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
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Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 105

Week # 105, Dated 30 to 5 February 2010

TURKEY

Political Front: In the stead of the democratic initiative the Turkish government has established a state institution to deal with human rights violations and make proposals to prevent them. Furthermore Turkey has lifted a controversial security protocol that sanctioned a military coup in case of domestic security risk, after a coup plot report surfaced publicly known as EMASYA.
Sixteen former members of the now-banned Democratic Society Party have been taken into custody in an operation under suspicion of being part of an urban branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.
Geo-strategic Front: Defense Ministers of NATO held an informal meeting in Turkey last week. The US envoy appreciated Turkey’s role in Afghanistan. Turkey has also granted $1 million in aid to Haiti.
Iranian FM in a recent visit to turkey reaffirmed strong relations between the two states; He deemed any threat against Turkey as a threat against Iran and vice versa.
A senior U.S. official has called on Turkey and Armenia to ratify protocols signed last year to normalize relations. Meanwhile the Turkish Foreign Minister said that Turkey's criticism of Israel targeted the offensive on Gaza and had nothing to do with anti-Semitism. Turkey has also reiterated its intention to strengthen ties with Russia. Meanwhile the Turkish PM gave warm welcome to his Bulgarian counterpart. The premier also promised support for Kosovo’s recognition internationally. He also stressed Turkey’s determination in its efforts for EU accession despite adversity.
Social Front: Workers in Turkey began a nation-wide one-day strike to support workers of the Tobacco and Liquor Administration. Government reiterated its stance and declared the strike to be ineffective. All the while snowfall has halted flights and traffic in Turkey.
Economic Front: Turkish State Minister for foreign trade announced Turkey's export target for 2010 at $ 111 billion USD.
Turkey’s hazelnut export sector has yielded more than $728.87 million this year. Turkish tourist and property markets have also revived. Inflation in Turkey accelerated in January because of tax increases and higher energy prices. Meanwhile Turkey and Azerbaijan have agreed on the price of natural gas imported from the latter.

FERTILE CRESCENT


Political Front: At a protest held outside Egyptian parliament Protestors have called on the Egyptian People’s Assembly to take decisive action against sectarian acts of violence.
Iraq's Shiite-led government has alleged as illegal a decision by an appeals panel to suspend a ban on candidates with alleged ties to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Ba'ath Party until after an election. Meanwhile in a Gaza meeting the rival Fatah and Hamas movements have formed a committee in charge of discussing field issues that are preventing reconciliation.
Geo-strategic Front: Egyptian police shot dead a sub-Saharan African migrant and wounded another as they tried to enter Israel illegally. Meanwhile Hamas' exiled leader Khalid Meshaal, in a recent statement said that a reconciliation deal with rival Palestinian faction Fatah was "within reach", and called on Egypt to host a meeting to seal an accord.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Lebanon of allowing Hezbollah to develop its military force by smuggling weapons "in violation" of the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. Meanwhile Israeli Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, warned of the possibility of military confrontations with Syria due to the lack of progress during indirect talks with the country.
A UN Human Rights Council report compiled by a team led by the South African judge Richard Goldstone has accused both Israel and Hamas of war crimes during the three weeks war in the region. Hamas however has rejected accusations of having committed "war crimes" during last year’s Israeli offensive against the Gaza Strip.
Social Front: Female students at Cairo University have started challenging religious and state efforts to ban the so-called controversial Niqab from schools and colleges. The battle between the Ministry of Higher Education and university students entered a new phase following last week's Supreme Administrative Court ruling that university administrations could not ban female students from wearing the niqab during exams.
Economic Front: Iraqi rice harvest has experienced a record decline where agricultural officials have blamed the slump on the falling water level of the Euphrates River

GCC

Political Front: A senior official of the Yemeni ruling party has said that military operations against Al Houthi rebels would cease only after the rebels start implementing the six conditions set by the government.
Geo-strategic Front: Tehran has slammed plans by the United States to beef up defenses in the Gulf against potential Iranian missile attacks, with the Islamic republic insisting it posed no threat to its neighbors.
Saudi Arabia has retaliated against US decision to place special security checks against people of 14 countries including Saudis. Meanwhile a leading Bahraini lawmaker has expressed "tremendous concerns" that claims about the alleged threat of Al Qaeda in Yemen may prove to be as baseless as the reports of WMDs in Iraq.
Qatar and Iran are expected to sign agreements in oil and gas industry, tourism, investments and other important fields to boost their economies. Meanwhile Kuwait has claimed that it would not allow anyone including the US to use its territory for launching attacks against any country.
Social Front: GCC member states are making concrete efforts for increasing job opportunities. Meanwhile Kuwait's immigration bureau has directed to not allow maids into the country without police approval for the sponsors.
A Bahrain women's rights group has stepped up pressure to make the citizenship issue a top priority in the application of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW). Meanwhile the Ministry of Labor has made a proposal to the cabinet laying out the framework for a new employment system for expatriates.
UAE has maintained in 2009 its third spot on the press freedom Index among Arab countries, following Kuwait and Lebanon. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia's Assistant Minister of Education for Girls' Affairs has vowed support for the ongoing pay parity drive for almost 100,000 female teachers with their male counterparts.

CENTRAL ASIA

Political Front
: The ruling party of Azerbaijan has expressed joy over the registration of its 500,000th member as the number of party members crossed that of the Communist party in Soviet era. Meanwhile leaders of the Kazakh Communist Party and the unregistered Algha (Forward) party are demanding an immediate investigation into accusations of corruption against President Nursultan Nazarbaev's son-in-law.
President of Kyrgyzstan has fired the chief of Culture Agency for permitting the U.S. photographer Sergei Melnikoff (who has been critical of Russia) to hold a photo exhibit in Bishkek. Meanwhile an enlarged meeting of the Tajik Cabinet to review the results of the past year’s work opened in Dushanbe last week. Also three judges from the Tajik Supreme Court and a Dushanbe court filed lawsuits against three independent newspapers.
Geo-strategic Front: Azeri Parliament has confirmed the agreement on mutual visa-free travel between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Kazakh protesters collided with police at a rally against their government's burgeoning ties with neighboring China. Meanwhile Kazakhstan has recently offered to hold joint military exercises with Turkey. Also Russia remains Kazakhstan’s main strategic partner in space exploration.
Kyrgyz nationals in the United States have established a group called the Kyrgyz Movement for Democracy.
President of Turkmenistan recently held a meeting with his French counterpart.
Social Front: Nearly 23,000 people have been vaccinated against H1N1 virus (swine flu) in Azerbaijan’s capital.
Two Kazakh newspapers criticized a libel suit brought by President Nursultan Nazarbaev’s son-in-law against them, calling it an attack on the country's independent media. Meanwhile a private foundation has urged Kazakhstan to free Yevgeny Zhovtis, a prominent government critic and civil rights lawyer, jailed for four years over a road accident late last year, saying he was imprisoned in "an unfair trial". Also around 200 protesters rallied in a southern Kyrgyz village demanding the release of imprisoned former Defense Minister.
Increase in infectious and parasitic diseases rate has been registered in Kyrgyzstan in 2009. Meanwhile in Tajikistan 71of 81 religious groups and organizations functioning have been able to reregister by January 1 deadline.
Europe's main democracy and security watchdog has sharply criticized Uzbekistan for jailing and harassing journalists, saying there has been no real improvement in its media freedom.
Economic Front: Azerbaijan and Turkey have agreed on price of the Azerbaijani gas in the first stage of the Shah Deniz project. Meanwhile Kazakhstan has announced its plan to increase the assets in its sovereign fund to $90 billion by 2020 from current $24.4 billion, while allocating $8 billion a year from it on industrial development.
The International Monetary Fund has granted Kyrgyzstan $337.5 million for 17 years of cooperation. Also the Cabinet of Ministers of Uzbekistan held a session on 29 January to consider the results of the socioeconomic development of the country in 2009 and the main priorities for 2010.

EAST ASIA

Political Front: Analysts have claim that the Indonesian Finance Minister enjoys real authority and power as a consequence of weak presidential leadership. Currently the nation’s vice president is the only potential challenger for such political weight.
The Thai PM has denied any chances of a coup in his country while expressing satisfaction with his party’s popularity in Central and Northern regio. Meanwhile in the Philippines Presidential candidate Aquino’s popularity has declined while that of Villar has gained momentum according. All the while in recently held talks with rebels, Philippines’ government has offered ‘enhanced autonomy to Moro Islamic Front in order to resolve Mindanao’s issue.
Geo-strategic Front: The Cambodian government has sent a strongly-worded letter to US internet giant Google, complaining that its online Google Earth map has incorrectly placed parts of the 11th century Preah Vihear temple in Thailand.
Social Front: In Indonesia, following protests by thousands of people a bronze statue of President Obama, previously erected in the National Park has been relocated to the school that the American president attended as a child. Meanwhile Rights activists have termed the new anti-pornography laws in Indonesia a crusade against regional traditions and religious minorities, where some fear it to be a push by some Islamic parties for Shariah.
Meanwhile a huge death-toll of ducks in southern Cambodia has raised concerns of the government.
Economic Front: Statistics of World Bank Economists evince that the Indonesian economy has almost recovered from the effect of the Global economic crisis. The process of economic recovery has also started in all of the East Asian states including Vietnam and Malaysia. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for Malaysia rose by 16 points to 112 in the fourth quarter of 2009, lifting the figure above the neutral point of 100 for the first time last year. Malaysia’s exports rebounded in December, climbing the most in 17 months amid a global economic recovery that led the government to predict higher overseas sales this year.
SABAH economic and business planners have expressed interest in forming alliances with Brunei in the halal business in a bid to strengthen trade ties. Meanwhile Vietnam has launched its first dispute at the World Trade Organization with a case against US anti-dumping measures on its key exports of shrimp.

SOUTH ASIA

Political Front: Bangladesh’s Supreme Court declared as illegal a Constitutional amendment that had allowed religion-based political parities to flourish in the country, paving the way for the government to ban such groups. On the Sri Lankan Independence Day, amidst allegations of electoral rigging, President Mahinda Rajapakse vowed to build an efficient, advanced nation through commitment, discipline and elimination of corruption.
Maldives Department of Information has collected an audio recording of a radio station in its investigation, consisting live coverage of a protest which sparked outside the president’s palace and Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF) head quarters. Meanwhile Nepali Maoists have asked former PM Koirala to play his role in constitution making and bring an end to the ongoing political crisis.
Geo-strategic Front: Bangladesh has hinted at handing over a top jailed Indian separatist leader, but wanted New Delhi to reciprocate by deporting some of its wanted terrorists allegedly hiding in India.
The third edition of the India-Bhutan Friendship Car Rally was flagged off from Kolkata. Meanwhile India has announced $2.7 million worth material donation to war-hit Sri Lanka.
Maldives has claimed that it would not allow any terrorist group to use its land for any kind of terrorist activities against India. Meanwhile the UK Immigration Service, now known as "UK Borders Agency" has suspended the applications process for student visas from northern India, Nepal and Bangladesh after a dramatic upsurge in numbers and allegations of fraud.
Apart from India, China too intends to play an effective role in Nepal. Meanwhile the US government has proposed that no military aid be made available to Nepal unless the secretary of state certifies that the Nepali Army is fully cooperating with investigations related to violation of human rights by its officials.
The interrogation of a top Maoist leader Kobad Ghandy, currently in the custody of Delhi Police's Special Cell, has confirmed the Nepali link to the Maoist movement.
Social Front: The Sri Lankan government has announced to increase the salaries of its security forces.
Meanwhile in Bhutan the ban on worship by Christians and other minorities continues despite wide spread prevalence of ‘western’ practices such as ‘discos’. The main reason cited for this is to prevent any cause for fragmentation in the small kingdom. The promotion of the tourism industry has also been at the forefront in the government’s agenda.
At environmental front ‘climate change’ has become a serious source of concern for developing countries including Bhutan. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) too has added climate change as a primary concern in Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Nepal along with strengthening peace and good governance.
Maldives has sought the help of CBI to help tackle attempts by international drug cartels to smuggle in contraband using Indians.
Economic Front: Bangladesh has been trying to attract $7 billion of foreign investment to boost its electricity generation, a shortage of which has slowed the country's economic development. The nation’s tea exports sank by slightly more than two thirds in 2009 as most of the crop produced was consumed locally, a trend expected to continue this year. Bangladeshi workers abroad sent home a record $6.48 billion as remittances in the first seven months of the current fiscal year, registering a 20.89 percent growth.
Opening of the first Commercial Bank in Bhutan has become a source of delight for the entrepreneurs. Meanwhile Sri Lankan shares rose 0.24 percent led by hopes of better earnings due to post-war economic recovery. Also after more than a year of slack, Malaysia has placed a record high demand for 100,000 Nepalese for blue collar jobs within the next six months.

INDIA

Political Front: Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Mumbai and his statement ‘Mumbai for all Indians’ has provoked Shiv Sena who have been at odds with the Congress party over the immigrant’s issue. Meanwhile the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) criticized Congress leader Dig Vijay Singh’s visit to the family of an alleged Indian Mujahideen (IM) operative, accusing him of "vote bank politics". The visit was also opposed by the Muslim Ulema Council. Meanwhile the Sangh Parivar has asked its volunteers in Maharashtra to try to prevent the spread of anti-north Indian and anti-Hindi sentiments.
Regional Front: The BJP in Madhya Pradesh has elected 100 Muslim representatives in urban local bodies. 82 Muslims, including 36 burqa-clad women, were elected on the BJP symbol in the recent elections to 268 urban bodies. Meanwhile Samajwadi Party expelled Amar Singh and Jayaprada from the party on the charges of indulging in anti party activities and damaging its political interests and image.
Meanwhile a dispute over formation of the new state of Gorkhaland disrupted the law and order situation in Darjeeling, West Bengal.
Geo-strategic Front: India has proposed the resumption of talks with Pakistan, while Pakistan has sought clarity of the content of the talks. Meanwhile India and Germany have expressed keenness to enhance bilateral ties.
Social Front: Hindutva activists damaged minority worship places and institutions in Kampala. They threw stoned Mosques, Churches and an orphanage. In the meantime Bollywood actor Shah Rukh Khan has come under severe criticism of Shiv Sena for his sympathetic support to Pakistani cricketers against the IPL decision of their exclusion from the league.
Chief Justice of India (CJI) has stressed on an urgent need to ban websites that circulate pornography and hate speeches, and has emphasized the need for cyber law enforcement in India.
A recently published report claims that almost 45,000 children die in Maharashtra every year due to malnutrition.
Economic Front: The Trinamool Congress opposed increase in the prices of LPG and other petroleum products recommended by an expert panel; saying a new burden of raised prices would hit the common people hard. Also Indian firms have made plan to increase hiring remarkably.

CHINA

Political Front: Chinese PM paid a visit to a village and an urban community in order to get feedback from the people for his work report that he has to deliver at the annual session of the National People's Congress, in March.
Chinese vice Premier stressed that civilians and army should develop favorable interactions to secure both economic and defense development. Meanwhile a senior leader of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has urged party organs, government departments and law enforcement departments to make more efforts in solving social conflicts, promoting innovative social management and law enforcement in a just manner.
The mayor of Urumqi, capital of northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, has promised a persistent crackdown on the "three forces" of terrorism, separatism and extremism.
Geo-strategic Front: Chinese Foreign Minister has asked the US to stop selling arms to Taiwan and has warned to ban companies involved in arms sale. China also suspended its plan to have military exchange with US. Meanwhile the US has been highly critical of China’s Internet policy after Google threatened to pull out of China, citing problems of censorship and hacking attacks.
Chinese high officials held meetings with their counterparts from Jamaica, France, Serbia, Vietnam, Russia and Britain and focused on bilateral ties. China has also expressed positive hopes regarding peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue.
Social Front: President of China's Supreme People's Court has asked to speed up efforts to fight corruption in the country's court system. Government has started focusing on rural development along with that of the urban areas. Chinese central and local governments have poured money into the building of national cultural information and resources sharing network.
Last week the State Council of Ch ina issued an urgent notice urging relevant departments and local authorities to settle pay disputes involving migrant workers as millions of them are heading home for lunar New Year reunion. Meanwhile one of the China's top political advisors called on the country's Buddhists to contribute to ethnic unity, social stability and national unification.
13 more Swine flu deaths have been reported in China, while 74 million people have been vaccinated against the influenza. Meanwhile on the environmental front Chinese State Councilor has urged northern Shanxi Province, China's main coal mining hub, to adopt low-carbon technologies.
Hong Kong & Macao: A total of 101,298 people in Macao have been inoculated with the A/H1N1 vaccines so far. Meanwhile Police of Hong Kong and Chinese mainland has agreed to join forces in security, especially to enhance cooperation in training.
Economic Front: The Bank of Communications (BoCom) has claimed that China would enter a new round of upward economic growth cycle in 2010. Also centralized procurement by the Chinese government has helped save close to 2 billion Yuan (about 290 million U.S. dollars) in 2009. In fact government cut down expanses in many aspects and focused more on energy efficient and innovative products. Of the GDP growth of 8.7 percent last year, investment growth contributed 8 percentage points. Meanwhile Land sale revenues for China's local governments rose more than 60 percent in 2009 as the country's property market surged.
The US has been asking China to increase the value of Yuan; an issue that has strained relations between the two countries. Meanwhile China and Switzerland held their first study meeting on the feasibility of a Free Trade Area (FTA) in Beijing. Besides all that Preliminary data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) shows that China's current account balance dropped 35 percent in 2009 to 284.1 billion U.S. dollars.

Hong Kong & Macao: At the economic front Hong Kong stocks initially moved up 0.61 percent, to close at 20,243.75; later on stocks in Hong Kong dropped by 3.12%. Macao's gaming sector generated record high monthly revenues of 1.7 billion U.S. dollars in January 2010, which was a significant increase of 55 percent over the same period of last year. However Macao's total value of merchandise exports in 2009 fell by 52.1 percent year-on-year to 970 million U.S. dollars. §


________________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
Please Preview your comments before posting.

Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 104

Week # 104, Dated 23 to 29 January 2010

TURKEY

Political Front: PM Erdogan has asked all anti-democracy elements to stop their efforts to illegally topple the democratically elected regime. In the meantime thousands of people throughout Turkey took to the streets to condemn recently uncovered military action plans. In response to the allegations against armed forces; the military chief has out rightly denied all allegations. Meanwhile the Constitutional Court has annulled a law that allowed military officers to be tried in civilian courts, a move that legal experts believe is unlikely to affect ongoing investigations of military officers suspected of having planned an alleged coup. Meanwhile militant PKK has reportedly plans to launch violent demonstrations on 15 Feb (marking the arrest of their top leader) to be continued till 25 March.
Meanwhile reiterating his strong support for the democratization initiative launched by the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government, Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani has encouraged the Kurdish people of Turkey to support initiatives seeking solution to the decades old dispute.
Geo-strategic Front: Key developments occurred in Turkish-Armenian relations after the release of latter’s court’s ruling terming the killing of Armenians in 1915 a genocide and claiming some parts of Turkey as Armenian. In the wake of these developments Foreign Ministers of both countries held meeting in the UK.
Besides that Turkey also hosted a trilateral summit that included Pakistan-Afghanistan & Turkey, primarily focusing on stability in the region. Also Turkey has strongly warned Israel to end settlements in Gaza.
Social Front: This week life in Istanbul remained paralyzed amidst snowfall and extreme cold weather.
Economic Front: Turkish Stock exchange has increased remarkably while its reserves have decreased.

GCC:

Geo-strategic Front: Various accords have been signed between Saudi and US universities. Meanwhile strong Saudi-Pak ties and growing ties with China and Africa also remained significant.
Recently held Kuwait-French talks have led to capping of a cooperative peaceful nuke- deal.
Social Front: Swine flu vaccine has been made available in 15 Saudi centers. Meanwhile the Diplomatic Corps has lauded United Arab Emirates for its role in protecting rights of the migrant workers, offering them the best available milieu and opportunities to work in.
Economic Front: Saudi IT market intends to touch $4.8 billion mark by 2013. A recent consumer survey indicates that consumer confidence in Kuwait has remarkably increased despite the global, regional and local economic challenges.
Bahrain and Russia have expressed their keenness to enhance co-operation in trade, industrial, economic and financial fields.

CENTRAL ASIA

Political Front: Appeal of detained Kazakh Journalist for parole has been rejected by the court. Meanwhile the pro-presidential Adilet (Justice) party has proposed to abolish the post of prime minister diverting most of its powers to Kazakh President.
Kyrgyz PM has strongly condemned his Interior Minister for making wrong appointment of deputy police chief and has cancelled the appointment. All the while Parliament has endorsed constitutional amendments made by the Kyrgyz President. A Tajik official claimed that many prisoners convicted of drug offenses have paid bribes in order to be released in a recent amnesty.
In three Tajik constituencies elections were held to replace old parliamentarians with new deputies. Dilorom, Uzbek speaker since 2008 has taken charge of the Parliament under same designation.
Geo-strategic Front: NATO has finalized an agreement with Kazakhstan on the transit of supplies to Afghanistan, in order to reduce its reliance on a route through Pakistan.
Also Kazakhstan has threatened to rewrite key Western-run energy projects in order to implement new tax rules.
Social Front: NGOs have accused the government of Kazakhstan for blocking 14 websites. Meanwhile the Kyrgyz opposition party continued its hunger strike against detention of former Defense minister.
Nine religious groups in Tajikistan failed to file documents for registration by the January 1 deadline and have been declared illegal. Meanwhile Turkmen students banned from studying at universities abroad have been allowed by the government to resume their studies at the American University in Bulgaria.
A prominent Uzbek sports journalist has been arrested under the allegation of creating an illegal religious group. Also authorities in the Uzbek capital have started renaming some 150 streets and residential areas to deemphasize the city's Soviet heritage. Meanwhile Human Rights Watch has asked the government to drop baseless charges against prominent photographer Umida Akhmidova.
Economic Front: Inflation is expected to reach 5-7 percent in Azerbaijan at the end of 2010, compared to 1.5 percent in 2009. Meanwhile in Kyrgyzstan the number of officially registered jobless has increased by 8.5 percent and reached 9,651. However, Kyrgyz PM expects remarkable economic growth via investments in 2010.
According to the World Bank figures Uzbek economy would grow by 6.5% in the year 2010.

SOUTH ASIA

Political Front: At the end of its first year of governance most analysts have agreed that Bangladesh’s AL has successfully achieved some of its set targets till now. Some of its achievements include its efforts in the ‘war against terror’, curbing poverty and active diplomacy. Democratic spirit in the country’s politics however has been deemed lacking.
The sixth Presidential elections were successfully held in Sri Lanka on 26 January. Rajapakse retained his position after winning 57% of the total votes cast. International monitors have expressed satisfaction with the elections despite a few shortcomings. On the day of elections four explosions occurred in Jaffna Peninsula.
Nepali PM has asked Maoists to leave extreme thinking in order to resolve the issue of constitution making before deadline i.e. 28 May. Meanwhile Three Nepalese princesses have been summoned to appear before a judge in a dispute over their father's estate, in what would be the first court appearance by a former royal.
Geo-strategic Front: Some of the analysts and journalists have strongly condemned Bangladeshi Prime Minister’s recent visit to India terming it as weakening of the nation’s sovereignty. However India has decided to settle some of its dues with Bangladesh, by agreeing in principle to cede control over some 17,000 acres of territory as part of a larger, comprehensive agreement, in which the remaining part of the 4,096 km-long boundary would be demarcated. Several pockets of adverse possessions and enclaves claimed by both sides are likely to be settled on an “as-is-where-is” basis.
Top Nepali leadership has asked India to provide them assistance in constitution writing. Japanese assistance to Nepal and Turkish-Nepalese air services agreement also remained significant. Maldives has asked India to increase trade and investments in the island nation. India in response has promised to invest worth $1 billion in corporate houses. Maldives has also expressed keenness to work for up gradation of its environment.
Social Front: Last week annual religious gathering in Bangladesh were attended by 4 million Muslims.
Health experts in Bangladesh have pointed out HIV Aids as a potent emerging threat to the society of the country. Meanwhile people in Nepal have been facing electricity cut for 11 hours daily due to power shortage in the country. The 2010 Environmental Performance Index has ranked Nepal 38th among 163 countries on 25 performance indicators tracked across 10 policy categories covering both environmental public health and eco-system vitality. Only Japan (20) and Singapore (28) are the other Asian countries that have performed better than the Himalayan nation.
Economic Front: Bangladesh’s food and disaster management ministry has issued an international tender to buy 50,000 tones of white rice. Stock exchange in Sri Lanka remarkably fell soon after Presidential elections. First month of the year has witnessed sharp increase in inflation in Sri Lanka mainly due to a low base effect, rising consumer spending on the back of low interest rates, and high food prices.

INDIA

Political Front:
National level: TRS has asked the government to take appropriate measures to resolve Telangana issue. Meanwhile BJP President has claimed that his party regards RSS but does not follow its dictations. A member of Shiv Sena has defeated SP leader's son in a closely-contested by-election. Meanwhile security remained on high alert for Republican day.
At the Kashmiri front Omer Abdullah has invited freedom fighters to resolve their issues via negotiations.
Geo-strategic Front: UN envoy for nuclear non proliferation criticized Indo-US nuclear deal as it weakened the efforts for a nuclear free world. Meanwhile an RSS chief claimed that India should teach a lesson to Pakistan and take strong steps against China. Meanwhile India has announced 100 fellowships for training Afghan students in agricultural field every year.
Social Front: In a recent attack Maoists killed 4 people in Orissa and blew up a railway track in Assam. A significant development is that gender based discrimination in India has remarkably decreased in the last decade. A survey by the Navsarjan Trust and the Robert F. Kennedy Centre for Justice and Human Rights indicates that the practice of un-touchability is still prevalent in rural areas of Gujarat. Meanwhile the West Bengal government has announced plans to create one lakh jobs by March 2010 in different department.
Economic Front: India has expressed determination to achieve 7% growth rate in 2010 while IMF has predicted 7.9% growth rate in 2010-11.

EAST ASIA

Political Front: Amidst declining popularity Indonesian President has launched his third pop album entitled ‘I am certain I’ll make it’. Meanwhile thousand of protestors have launched demonstrations against President Susilo for his inability to end corruption.
Protests of red-shirt protestors have increased problems for the Thai regime. Meanwhile the Philippine government and Muslim separatists held two days of talks in Malaysia working towards a peace deal to end decades of conflict.
Sam Rainsy, the leader of Cambodia’s largest opposition party, has been sentenced in absentia to two years in jail on charges of racial incitement and destroying demarcation posts on Cambodia's border with Vietnam.
Geo-strategic Front: A Cambodian cargo ship has been hijacked by Somali pirates.
Social Front: Indonesia, the world's third largest greenhouse gas emitter, has announced plans for a $1bn fund to invest in emission reduction projects across the country.
The Indonesian Migrant Workers Union (SBMI) lambasted the government for failing to protect Indonesian workers overseas, saying more than 1,000 of them had died while doing their jobs last year. Malaysian prosecutors have also charged three Muslim men in the firebombing of a church.
Economic Front: Growth in Philippines gross domestic product faded to 0.9 percent in 2009 from 3.8 percent in 2008 -- the weakest since the economy shrank 0.6 percent in 1998 in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.
Malaysian PM slammed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prescriptions’ asserting that there was no universal recipe to financial crises. Meanwhile the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier) has maintained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 3.7% for Malaysia this year in view of the improving macro-economic indicators.

CHINA

Political Front: Chinese officials have directed various departments to handle public complaints. Meanwhile a senior official with the Civil Aviation Administration has been dismissed from the Communist Party of China (CPC) and his public office for "serious violations of discipline and laws."
Geo-strategic Front: Cyber issue has exacerbated tension between China and USA. In response to the US criticism China claimed that its policy of internet regulation is in line with Chinese laws and does not intend to block flow of words or ideas. Meanwhile a national agency that handles China's Internet security issues said it hasn't received any detailed report from Google Inc. (GOOG) regarding a series of cyber attacks the company believes were originated from China. The US has asked China to carry investigations of the attack while China strongly condemned US interference.
China has decided to suspend scheduled visits between the Chinese and U.S. armed forces, in response to Washington's plan to sell a package of arms worth nearly 6.4 billion U.S. dollars to Taiwan. Meanwhile China, South Korea and Japan held a meeting to launch joint research on free trade pact. In the meantime time Chinese growing relations with Brunei, Uganda, Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Switzerland and Africa remained significant indicating Chinese role as an active global player.
China has asked EU to immediately lift an arms embargo as it would affect their strategic partnership. China has also urged international community to play its role in resuming the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.
China has further increased humanitarian aid to 18 million Yuan for the victims of Haiti. China has also decided to send humanitarian aid to Mongolia while promising to continue support for Afghanistan’s reconstruction.
Social Front: A top judge has been convicted in China as a result of anti-corruption drive.
A total of 770,000 deaths from tuberculosis (TB) have been avoided over the past eight years in China because of a large-scale TB control project. Also China has started taking strict measures to curb environmental pollution. In this regard various industries causing pollution have been pointed out. Emissions of sulfur dioxide, a major pollutant in China has also dropped 10.4 percent last year compared with that of 2008. The Government has also allocated funds to deal with drought situation. More than three million people faced water shortage as the worst drought in 50 years hit parts of south and southwest China.
In 2009 Beijing received 170 million tourists at home and from abroad.
Economic Front: China and Switzerland have voiced their opposition against trade protectionism amid the ongoing global financial crisis. Chinese shares declined for first four days of the weak but increased after that lessening tension of the economists. Chinese wine industry has got golden opportunity in the international market as world has started looking for low cost wine. Its private sector too created 11.4 million new jobs in 2009. ADB has announced to provide China with a grant of 1 million U.S. dollars to help it develop large-scale concentrated solar thermal (CST) power use. Investments have also remarkably increased in Hong Kong. §
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
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Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 103

Week # 102, Dated 16 to 22 January 2010
TURKEY
Political Front: Kurdish and Turkish journalists held a one day meeting to discuss the role of media. Meanwhile Bar associations from 41 cities throughout Turkey met in Diyarbakir over the weekend to discuss the government’s democratization initiative and urged the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to withdraw from Turkey and to bring an end to military operations. A recently conducted survey indicates that a considerable part of the Turkish nation believes that a pro-coup formation exists within the military, but a larger part is of the view that the military would not dare to stage a coup d'état. The Military has also denied allegations that they have been involved in planning military coups to topple the government. Meanwhile Turkey’s top court has annulled legislation allowing military personnel to be tried by civil courts.
Geo-strategic Front: Turkey had exchanged diplomatic visits with India, Mauritania, Serbia, Syria and Lebanon. Turkish-Israeli relations remained strained in the wake of the Israeli complaint against a Turkish drama. Meanwhile Turkey has reiterated its commitment with Palestine. Turkish cordial ties with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, US and the EU remained potent as well.
Social Front: A ban on smoking so far seems successful in Turkey. Meanwhile heavy snow and high speed winds have been affecting Istanbul, causing black outs as well as related natural gas and water outages.
Economic Front: Turkey and Russia have decided to remove a large part of previously erected obstacles against shuttle trade, a modern type of caravan trade which was facing excessive duties to account for quality regulation and counter an increase in the unregistered economy. Meanwhile Turkish stock exchange remained fluctuating. Despite the Economic Crisis, 2009 proved to be a good year for Turkish tourist industry.
GCC
Geo-strategic Front: Yemeni warplanes struck outside a desert village near the border with Saudi Arabia on Friday, killing six alleged Al-Qaeda operatives, including the group's top military leader in the country. Meanwhile Yemen has decided not to issue tourist visas on arrival to foreigners in an effort to prevent militants entering the country.
Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the headquarters of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Saudi Arabia and expressed his satisfaction over the 57-member group’s increasing role on the world stage. Meanwhile a Kuwaiti MP has lashed out at his government after it announced plans to fund the building of a hospital in Basra and homes for Iraqi farmers, charging that it was making "unjustified concessions" to Iraq.
Tehran has said that it is ready to talk with the Kuwaitis on the "thorny" maritime border issue. All the while Gulf countries remained quite active in sending relief packages to the victims of Haiti.
Social Front: The UAE has become a popular destination among expatriate workers from all over the world as employment prospects in the country have increased by up to 8.3 per cent annually. The Saudi Passport Department has launched a service to enable exit and re-entry visas to be issued online. On another side, in an effort to curb dengue fever from spreading in Jeddah, the local Department of Health Affairs has added pharmacists to its war on dengue.
The Saudi government seems keen to relax regulations governing the marriages between Saudis and non-Saudis. A revised draft law prepared by the Interior Ministry and the Cabinet’s Committee of Experts allows government ministers, judges, Shoura members and students on foreign scholarships to marry non-Saudi women. The new law, which replaces the old one issued 38 years ago, is yet to be passed by the Council of Ministers.
Economic Front: Banking sector in Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia has observed remarkable growth. Stock exchange of Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Oman however fell sharply. Meanwhile property market in Qatar also witnessed a downturn. As part of a growing business interest in foreign countries, Kuwait has recently signed two investment projects with Kazakhstan.
FERTILE CRESCENT
Political Front: In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood has elected a new supreme guide, Mohamed Badea’ Sami, to head the group’s Guidance Office. The list of nearly 500 candidates barred from running in Iraq's upcoming parliamentary poll has yet to be finalized, but it is already fanning sectarian tensions. Failure to implement sufficient electoral reform ahead of the municipal elections is expected to raise tensions among Lebanese voters.
Palestinian President Mahmud Abbass has asked the Obama regime to negotiate final borders of a Palestinian state with Israel. He further denied any chances of resumption of peace talks without complete freeze of Israeli settlements.
Geo-strategic Front: More than 200 Indonesian Muslims protested in Jakarta against an underground wall being built to block a network of tunnels crossing Egypt's border with the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile in Lebanon about 200 people took part in a protest near Egypt's embassy, accusing Egyptian authorities of acting like an agent of Israel. Crowds set fire to US and Israeli flags.
Social Front: Government of Egypt has announced to send aid packages to the earthquake victims of Haiti. Meanwhile floods in several parts of the country have claimed 15 lives in the past four days and left a trail of destroyed houses in its wake. Lebanon also sent relief packages to Haiti.
Economic Front: Although Egypt’s GDP growth rate is expected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2010 and 6 percent by 2011, high food imports represent a significant burden on the economy. Meanwhile attempts to boost Egyptian exports have long been incorporated into the country’s trade strategy, with expanded trade relationships with the US, China, Russia and India planned or under implementation. Iraqi Kurds have allowed central government to collect royalties of oil exports originating in their region. Figures released by the Directorate of Real Estate indicate that the number of property-sale transactions in Lebanon and the value of such transactions witnessed an increase in 2009. At the same time Lebanese tourist industry has performed remarkably well.
CENTRAL ASIA
Political Front: Kazakh opposition party Azat (Freedom) has requested the OSCE member-states to discuss with Astana the issue of putting opposition representatives on the list of Astana official delegation in the Organization. The Kyrgyz Constitutional Court has rejected President Kurmanbek Bakiev's proposal for a still-to-be-created Presidential Council to appoint an interim president in emergencies proclaiming it would strengthen the sitting President.
The son of jailed former Kyrgyz Defense Minister has warned to start an opposition campaign against the government. Meanwhile at least six active members of an ‘extremist’ religious organization Hizb ut-Tahrir have been arrested in Kyrgyzstan.
Election preparations are on the way in Tajikistan.
Geo-strategic Front: The Azerbaijani MPs would soon visit the US and would register their protest against the U.S Congress's decision to allocate funds to the Armenian community of the Nagorno-Karabakh. The United States has urged Kyrgyzstan to use its chairmanship of Europe's main security and human rights watchdog, to lead by example and improve its own record. Meanwhile a Kyrgyz border guard was shot by Uzbek border forces.
The United Nations has wholeheartedly welcomed the position of Turkmenistan playing a special role in the process of building peaceful life and socio-economic development in neighboring Afghanistan.
Social Front: Human Rights Watch has expressed serious concern regarding violation of rights of Right defenders in Azerbaijan. A Newspaper editor in Chief has been sentenced for 13 years in Azerbaijan. Meanwhile 2010 State’s budget has placed special emphasis on social spending.
Law enforcement agencies get about 10 thousand domestic violence claims annually in Kyrgyzstan. Also the Tajik Culture ministry has made plan to tightly control Islamic Study Board in the Republic. Turkmenistan's president has ordered the removal of a prominent statue of former dictator Saparmurat Niyazov, in a move to assert his own authority and chip away at the personality cult of his predecessor.
Economic Front: The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has increased volumes of gas exports, 57.1 percent as compared to 12.1 percent in Nov. Meanwhile SOCAR intends to double gas supply to Russia by 2011. A Kazakh oil producer half-owned by China’s largest oil company; has produced oil and gas equivalent of more than 6 million metric tons last year. Kyrgyzstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by 2.3 percent in 2009. Meanwhile Kyrgyzstan’s international reserve also grew by $0.3 billion in 2009. Turkmen gas supplies to Russia since their resumption in January 2010 total 30 million cubic meters a day. Last year inflation remained at 5% in Tajikistan.
INDIA
Political Front: National level: BJP & Leftist Parties have strongly condemned Congress for its inability to control inflation particularly upon food items. As far as insurgencies are concerned; government has decided to launch developmental programs in the effected areas in order to win sympathy of common public. Respective states have also asked the authorities to increase the number of troops to counter insurgents. At the Kashmiri front clashes between the freedom fighters and security forces have also been observed.
Regional Front: Amar Singh’s resignation has caused leadership crisis in Samajwadi Party. Meanwhile Telangana protestors have disrupted the law & order situation of Andhra Pradesh.
Geo-strategic Front: In wake of Indian chief of the army staff Deepak Kapoor’s statement regarding the ability to launch two front wars against Pakistan and China, the Indian defense ministry and foreign office have been trying to retreat from army chief’s stance by saying India wants peace with its neighbors and has no extra territorial ambitions. Indian detainee Ajmal Kasab has again denied his involvement in the incident of 26/11. India has also recently signed two pacts of cooperation with Botswana.
Social Front: Swine flu death toll has reached 1,113 in India.
Economic Front: After striving hard against global economic turmoil, Indian industries have started recovering. Meanwhile economists expect an increase in GDP this year.
CHINA
Political Front: Senior Chinese leader has encouraged judges and judicial workers to improve their work at grass-roots levels in a bid to ensure social justice and the people's legal rights.
Geo-strategic Front: Chinese growing ties with East Asian countries, Japan and Austria grabbed attention. China has also provided Pakistan with security scanners. Meanwhile UN has appreciated China for its assistance for earthquake victims of Haiti. Lastly, the Google controversy has caused a strain in US-China relations.
Social Front: Signs of expansion of the income gap between China's urban and rural residents have emerged amid the official data showing otherwise strong economic growth. Meanwhile five officials have been removed from their posts and deprived of their Party membership for alleged corruption after a probe into a landslide that killed 277 people.
Economic Front: Google has postponed the launch of two mobile phones produced specifically for the Chinese market.
China's economy expanded 8.7 percent in 2009 from a year earlier, exceeding the government's annual growth target of 8 percent. The country posted a drastic increase in fixed-asset investment in 2009 as the world's third largest economy aimed to spend more on property, roads and other infrastructures to sustain the economic growth. China's industrial added value also rose 11 percent in 2009 from a year earlier. Meanwhile exports in 2009 stood at 1.2 trillion U.S. dollars, down 16 percent from 2008, and imports reached 1.01 trillion U.S. dollars, down 11.2 percent from a year earlier. More than 11 million jobs have also been created. §

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
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Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 102

Week # 102, Dated 09 to 15 January 2010
TURKEY
Political Front: The Government has reiterated its commitment for the democratic initiative. Surveys however have revealed public’s hesitation regarding the government’s plan to resolve the Kurdish issue via reforms. Serious concerns have been expressed in the wake of new clashes in various cities across the country. Meanwhile Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader has reiterated his call for early general elections, claiming that the current government has lost its dynamism and is no longer able to rule the county. All the while a considerable portion of the Turkish nation backs the foreign policy pursued by the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government.
Geo-strategic Front: Turkiey’s growing ties with Russia, Pakistan, UAE and Lebanon remained significant. President Mehmet Ali Talat of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and Greek Cypriot leader Demetris Christofias met under a new and intensified stage of negotiations.
Israeli Foreign Ministry expressed uneasiness over a popular Turkish TV series, "Kurtlar Vadisi" (The Valley of The Wolves), through diplomatic channels. In the meanwhile Turkey strongly condemned Israeli behavior and demanded their apology letter which was later on submitted by Israel. The Turkish PM also condemned Israel for violation of Lebanese air space.
Turkey and Spain have recently discussed all possible chapters to be opened in the accession negotiations under the Spanish EU Presidency.
Social Front: Roman Catholics have joined an array of sects seeking recognition in Turkey in order to have access to rights and protections afforded to minorities, particularly in the fields of education, charitable organizations and property ownership.
Economic Front: Turkey’s unemployment rate declined to 13 percent in the three months through November. Meanwhile hydroelectric power plants have become significant in producing energy from domestic renewable sources and reducing dependence on external and expensive energy.
GCC
Political Front: Yemeni President has offered to open talks with Al-Qaida, given it agrees to lay down arms. Meanwhile a suspected Al-Qaida figure has bee killed and four got arrested in a raid on a house. At the same time the Iranian President has strongly condemned Saudi Arabia for its treatment of Yemeni rebels. An influential Muslim scholar has warned the Yemeni government that its support for the US war against terrorism would have adverse domestic effects.
Geo-strategic Front A local Islamic preacher has urged Saudi authorities to explore the prospect of imposing a ban on travel to the United States, if the United States sticks to its decision to undergo an "enhanced screening" of passengers from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent a message to the US administration seeking clarifications regarding the recent US announcement about heightened security checks for Saudi passengers. At the same time the Syrian President has pledged to work with Saudi Arabia to promote reconciliation between various Palestinian factions.
The government of Dubai has expressed its consent to host headquarters of the UN if it shifts from New York. Meanwhile Kuwait seems keen to sign a peaceful energy pact with France.
Social Front: Saudi Arabia's Shura Council has passed a legislation to make amendments in the Criminal Procedure Law by which death sentence shall be carried out with a unanimous decision instead of the existing majority vote. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia's Human Rights Commission has commended the steps taken by the government to empower women and elevate their position and status in the society. Kuwaiti government has also introduced various reforms for their women.
Qatari government has started investing heavily in promoting research, spending 2.8 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on funding studies in various fields. Kuwait has also taken steps to ensure payment of wages to foreign labors.
Economic Front: The UAE, Oman and Bahrain business confidence levels all declined in the last quarter. According to HSBC's quarterly the index fell from 81.4 to 80.2 between the third and fourth quarters of 2009. Dubai's ruler approved the Gulf emirate's 2010 budget with a deficit of 2 percent of gross domestic product, deeper than last year and in line with a budget committee's proposal. Oman's gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices declined by 27.4 percent as of the end of the third quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008, new data has showed.
FERTILE CRESCENT
Political Front: The result of Lebanese Parliamentary elections has created a situation where Hezbollah would reportedly retain its stockpiles of arms and would have veto power over major government decisions. Meanwhile a national committee has been formed in order to abolish political Sectarianism by building consensus among various Lebanese factions. Consensus building however seems to be a tough task. On the basis of ‘law of the committee of justice & accountability’ government of Iraq has barred nearly 500 politicians and political parties from contesting upcoming national elections. This decision of government has raised criticism within various circles as many parties have threatened to boycott.
Geo-strategic Front: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Palestinians and Israelis to resume peace talks "without preconditions," backing Palestinian aims for a state along the 1967 boundaries. The United States voiced its support for a wall being built by Egypt to block a network of tunnels stretching out from the Gaza Strip, arguing it would stop arms smuggling. Meanwhile Lebanon and Syria have criticized the tight security screening recently introduced by the United States against travelers from the two Arab nations.
Social Front: Lebanon has expressed serious concern regarding climate change.
Economic Front: Egyptian tourist industry has been doing well despite economic crisis.
CENTRAL ASIA
Political Front: Government of Azerbaijan blocked entry of US and Norwegian embassy officials into a village where locals came in clash with police. Meanwhile Election Commission announced the result of municipal elections and nullified election result in a few of the municipalities. Three organizers of a rally supporting jailed journalists in Kazakhstan went on trial; they condemned the government for being politically motivated. Meanwhile a Kyrgyz opposition leader has criticized the United States for not speaking out about media freedom and other rights violations in Kyrgyzstan. Tajik National TV channel has announced to provide air time to all political parties for pre-election debates.
Geo-strategic Front: Despite the issue of delimitation of Caspian Sea Azerbaijan & Turkmenistan continue to enjoy cordial ties. Azerbaijan suspects Armenian involvement in the destruction of Azerbaijani cemetery in Gazakh region.
Kazakhstan has formally begun its one-year chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Meanwhile, the country has also appointed an ambassador for Uzbekistan after 17 months without a diplomat in Tashkent. Kazakhstan has angrily denied allegations that it planned to sell uranium ore to Iran. Meanwhile a batch of contraband ammunition has been found in a cargo that has arrived in Kazakhstan from the United States.
The Iranian President has hailed the launch of a gas pipeline link to Iran from its energy-rich neighbor Turkmenistan. Also Turkmenistan has resumed natural gas supply to Russia.
Social Front: The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has condemned the prosecution of media activists in Kazakhstan. President of Turkmenistan has signed a document authorizing the transfer of US $ 500 thousand as humanitarian assistance for people of Haiti affected by the earthquake. Uzbek President has unveiled a new monument as a replacement for Soviet monuments in downtown Tashkent that were taken down last year.
Economic Front: The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) has renewed statistical data on Azerbaijani oil export via the major pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC). According to it 2.8 million tons of Azeri oil was delivered via BTC to Turkey’s Ceyhan port in December 2009. Inflation in Kazakhstan amounted to 6.2 percent in 2009. President of Kyrgyzstan signed a decree passing control over all economic crimes to the State Financial Police department.
CHINA
Political Front: Former general manager of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), has been stripped of his post and his membership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) for "serious violations of the law and breaches of discipline."
Geo-strategic Front: China has successfully conducted test on ground-based midcourse missile interception technology within its territory. Meanwhile the United States has announced to issue an official protest to the Chinese government over a major espionage attack targeting Google's computer systems and rights activists' e-mail accounts.
China and Argentina have agreed to proceed from a long-term perspective, strengthen high-level exchanges, advance practical cooperation in areas of finance, energy, infrastructure construction, and promote contacts and coordination on such issues as climate change and the reform of international financial system in a bid to elevate bilateral ties to a new level. Tanzania has expressed thanks to China for the support and assistance to the east African country. Meanwhile Chinese growing ties with Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei, Saudi Arabia, Kyrgyzstan, Germany, Japan and Europe also grabbed attention. China has also called for improved contacts in order to achieve a peaceful resolution of the Iran nuclear issue. China and Russia also aimed to boost their political ties by arranging more frequent diplomatic exchanges. Meanwhile the US decision to sell arms to Taiwan might create tension between US and China.
Social Front: China has sent relief packages to Haiti in order to assist them in the process of recovery. Meanwhile government of China has started taking quick measures to end corruption. A senior Chinese leader has called for deepened reforms and more innovations in the country's arts sector for greater cultural development. Meanwhile China has insisted its stand for an open Internet under proper regulation following Google's widely-concerned statement of a possible retreat from the country. Law enforcers in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region have set anti-terrorism as the main task in their work. China's State Council, or Cabinet, claimed that the so-called "five districts referendum" proposed by some social groups in Hong Kong would violate China's Constitution and the region's Basic Law.
Economic Front: China's foreign exchange reserves almost hit 2.4 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of 2009, up 23.28 percent year on year. China discovered nearly 5 billion tones of iron ore deposits in 2009. Meanwhile Chinese shares as well as FDI remained high. China's foreign trade in 2009 however dropped 13.9 percent from a year earlier to 2.21 trillion U.S. dollars.
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
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Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Zone 1- Micro Analysis'Turkey’s Civil Military Relations-

Week #101 – Dated 1st -8th January 2010
“Due to our old habits, we have been facing difficulties in adapting ourselves to today’s laws,” President Abdullah Gül said recently upon questions over the ongoing search being conducted by a civilian judge at a military headquarters, for the first time in Turkish history. The search is in connection with an investigation into an alleged assassination plot against Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç in mid-December. In the wake of this most recent assassination scandal Turkey's top general said last week that reports of a military plot to undermine the government were part of a smear campaign to divide the armed forces and pledged he would never tolerate coup activities.
The controversy has raised tensions between the military and the AK Party, which has roots in political Islam but also embraces center-right and nationalist forces. In 2001 the AKP was formed under the leadership of Erdogan as a split from the main Islamist party and the "old guard." Along with sharp shifts within the Turkish bourgeoisie in general, the wing with Islamist sympathies had also changed profoundly. The AKP distanced itself from the traditional line of the Turkish Islamist movement known as the "national view" doctrine and adopted a very friendly approach to the West and global finance capital and its policies are reflective of any right-wing party in Turkey.
Since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the modern secular Republic of Turkey in 1923, the Turkish military has perceived itself as the guardian of Kemalism, the official state ideology. The Turkish Armed Forces TAF still maintain an important degree of influence over politics and the decision making process regarding issues related to national security, albeit with a decrease in the past decades, via the National Security Council.
The military has had a record of intervening in politics. In 1997 the Turkish military presented an ultimatum to the Islamist-dominated coalition government ultimately dislodging the ruling regime. This was the fourth military intervention in Turkey since the end of the Second World War. The Turkish military had previously carried out coups in 1960, 1971 and 1980. Where the 1960 and 1971 military coups had institutional reform as their objective, the 1980 action was undertaken to shore up the order created by the earlier interventions. In the course of the military intervention in 1997, General Cevik Bir, the deputy chief of general staff, cynically declared that the aim of the army "was to readjust the balance of democracy."
During the last two decades many bourgeois commentators, including certain sections of the so-called "left," have claimed there is no longer any possibility of a major military intervention in Turkey—either overtly or covertly. Analysts however are divided on this issue. The variables dominating the current political arena are multifarious and unprecedented, Turkey’s bid for the EU being a vital point of reference here.
Scandals, controversies and speculations have been at their zenith this past year and so far there is no indication that the tide might ebb. In the last couple of years documents surfaced in the media that indicated that some former commanders led by the commander of the gendarmerie, General Sener Aydin, had planned two separate military coups in 2003 and 2004 under the codenames Sarikiz (Daisy) and Ayisigi (Moonlight). These however never manifested.
The ‘threat’ of renewed action by the Turkish military has also come to light in the high-profile court case and investigation into a conspiracy known as Ergenekon, in which a clandestine ultra-nationalist group is charged with attempting to create a chaotic political environment with the aim of triggering a direct military intervention.
Referred to as the concept of ‘Deep state’ it is believed to be a group of influential anti-democratic coalitions within the Turkish political system, composed of high-level elements within the intelligence services, Turkish military, security, judiciary, and mafia. The notion of deep state is similar to that of a "state within the state" and in the Turkish case seems to be a social phenomenon, seemingly based on a confluence of fact and conspiracy theories. It is a term widely used to describe renegade members of the security forces said to act outside the law in what they judge to be Turkey's best interests.
The police investigation into Ergenekon was launched in June 2007 after the discovery of stacked away explosives said to be of the same make used by the military. There are also indications that the investigation has managed to link Ergenekon with the two failed military coup attempts devised by military commanders.
On June 12 2009, the liberal left Taraf daily published an unclassified document outlining another covert operation titled "Action Plan against Reactionary Forces" in the context of the Ergenekon case. The alleged action plan was for the military to combat the “reactionary activities” against secularism prepared by senior staff Colonel Dursun Cicek and defined the ruling AKP and the Gulen movement as threats to the secular order in Turkey. The plan outlined various measures to undermine public support for the AKP and advocated a conspiracy against the Gulen movement to present it as an armed criminal group that could be construed as a terrorist organization. Later a report prepared by three experts at the Istanbul Council of Forensic Medicine (ATK) showed that the signature on the original copy belonged to Colonel Cicek, hence dispelling allegations of it being a forgery. However a segment of military officers are reportedly convinced that this is not a plot against the AKP government conducted by the armed forces but rather the reverse.
The government is also investigating another manifestation of the alleged plot by Naval officers under the name ‘Operation Cage Action Plan’ aiming to attack non-Muslim minorities to discredit the ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party The alleged plan, one of several reported in Turkish media, could add to strains between the secularist military and the government. The alleged "Cage Operation Action Plan" involved bomb attacks, kidnappings and assassinations against non-Muslims, which would then be blamed on Islamists. Turkish prosecutors are also currently investigating a separate alleged plot that implicates retired and serving military officers to overthrow the AK Party of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.
According to one analyst under the conditions of a global financial and economic meltdown, Turkish society today faces a new acute crisis and conditions of profound instability. Given the extreme divisions and loss of credibility and influence on the part of the "secularist" parties—the once mighty "centre-right" parties have no representation in parliament at the moment—only one force is capable of providing a violent corrective to the AKP government: ‘the Turkish military’.
However some analysts observe that the recent uproar has underlined the waning influence of the generals as the Muslim country has pushed liberal reforms aimed at winning membership of the European Union. "The era when the military in Turkey could take charge of the country is over and it has become more answerable to the public," says Hugh Pope, an author, "There is a readjustment under way in the civilian-military relationship in Turkey,”. §
Discussion Question:
¨ Which camp of debate are you more inclined towards, those who believe that another Military intervention is eminent in Turkey, or those who believe the Civil Military paradigm has evolved into one that would not tolerate such intervention?
Bibliography/Related Links
http://www.esiweb.org/pdf/turkey%20-%20Operation%20Cage%20(Kafes)%20Action%20Plan%20(English%20translation).pdf
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12514
http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/110004023772/en
http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=14568&t=The+Ergenekon+affair%3A+Turkish%2FOrthodox+controversy
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE55P29I20090626
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=194669
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?ots591=4888CAA0-B3DB-1461-98B9-E20E7B9C13D4&lng=en&id=53551
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_Turkey
http://www.esiweb.org/index.php?lang=en&id=415
http://www.turkishgladio.com/read.php?id=112
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2009-12-16-ergenekon-berlin-based-think-tank-releases-operation-cage-plan-in-english-translation
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/columnists-193447-fiction-of-fictionand-the-deep-state.html
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=how-the-turkish-military-conspires-against-turkish-society-2009-11-20
http://www.esiweb.org/index.php?lang=en&id=281&story_ID=21
http://bianet.org/english/media/117922-action-plan-against-reactionary-forces---a-chronology
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