BPM- Asia Zone

Week #101 – Dated 1st -8th January 2010

“Due to our old habits, we have been facing difficulties in adapting ourselves to today’s laws,” President Abdullah Gül said recently upon questions over the ongoing search being conducted by a civilian judge at a military headquarters, for the first time in Turkish history. The search is in connection with an investigation into an alleged assassination plot

against Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç in mid-December. In the wake of this most recent assassination scandal Turkey's top general said last week that reports of a military plot to undermine the government were part of a smear campaign to divide the armed forces and pledged he would never tolerate coup activities.
The controversy has raised tensions between the military and the AK Party, which has roots in political Islam but also embraces center-right and nationalist forces. In 2001 the AKP was formed under the leadership of Erdogan as a split from the main Islamist party and the "old guard." Along with sharp shifts within the Turkish bourgeoisie in general, the wing with Islamist sympathies had also changed profoundly. The AKP distanced itself from the traditional line of the Turkish Islamist movement known as the "national view" doctrine and adopted a very friendly approach to the West and global finance capital and its policies are reflective of any right-wing party in Turkey.
Since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the modern secular Republic of Turkey in 1923, the Turkish military has perceived itself as the guardian of Kemalism, the official state ideology. The Turkish Armed Forces TAF still maintain an important degree of influence over politics and the decision making process regarding issues related to national security, albeit with a decrease in the past decades, via the National Security Council.
The military has had a record of intervening in politics. In 1997 the Turkish military presented an ultimatum to the Islamist-dominated coalition government ultimately dislodging the ruling regime. This was the fourth military intervention in Turkey since the end of the Second World War. The Turkish military had previously carried out coups in 1960, 1971 and 1980. Where the 1960 and 1971 military coups had institutional reform as their objective, the 1980 action was undertaken to shore up the order created by the earlier interventions. In the course of the military intervention in 1997, General Cevik Bir, the deputy chief of general staff, cynically declared that the aim of the army "was to readjust the balance of democracy."
During the last two decades many bourgeois commentators, including certain sections of the so-called "left," have claimed there is no longer any possibility of a major military intervention in Turkey—either overtly or covertly. Analysts however are divided on this issue. The

variables dominating the current political arena are multifarious and unprecedented, Turkey’s bid for the EU being a vital point of reference here.
Scandals, controversies and speculations have been at their zenith this past year and so far there is no indication that the tide might ebb. In the last couple of years documents surfaced in the media that indicated that some former commanders led by the commander of the gendarmerie, General Sener Aydin, had planned two separate military coups in 2003 and 2004 under the codenames Sarikiz (Daisy) and Ayisigi (Moonlight). These however never manifested.
The ‘threat’ of renewed action by the Turkish military has also come to light in the high-profile court case and investigation into a conspiracy known as Ergenekon, in which a clandestine ultra-nationalist group is charged with attempting to create a chaotic political environment with the aim of triggering a direct military intervention.
Referred to as the concept of ‘Deep state’ it is believed to be a group of influential anti-democratic coalitions within the Turkish political system, composed of high-level elements within the intelligence services, Turkish military, security, judiciary, and mafia. The notion of deep state is similar to that of a "state within the state" and in the Turkish case seems to be a social phenomenon, seemingly based on a confluence of fact and conspiracy theories. It is a term widely used to describe renegade members of the security forces said to act outside the law in what they judge to be Turkey's best interests.
The police investigation into Ergenekon was launched in June 2007 after the discovery of stacked away explosives said to be of the same make used by the military. There are also indications that the investigation has managed to link Ergenekon with the two failed military coup attempts devised by military commanders.
On June 12 2009, the liberal left Taraf daily published an unclassified document outlining another covert operation titled "Action Plan against Reactionary Forces" in the context of the Ergenekon case. The alleged action plan was for the military to combat the “reactionary activities” against secularism prepared by senior staff Colonel Dursun Cicek and defined the ruling AKP and the Gulen movement as threats to the secular order in Turkey. The plan outlined various measures to undermine public support for the AKP and advocated a

conspiracy against the Gulen movement to present it as an armed criminal group that could be construed as a terrorist organization. Later a report prepared by three experts at the Istanbul Council of Forensic Medicine (ATK) showed that the signature on the original copy belonged to Colonel Cicek, hence dispelling allegations of it being a forgery. However a segment of military officers are reportedly convinced that this is not a plot against the AKP government conducted by the armed forces but rather the reverse.
The government is also investigating another manifestation of the alleged plot by Naval officers under the name ‘Operation Cage Action Plan’ aiming to attack non-Muslim minorities to discredit the ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party The alleged plan, one of several reported in Turkish media, could add to strains between the secularist military and the government. The alleged "Cage Operation Action Plan" involved bomb attacks, kidnappings and assassinations against non-Muslims, which would then be blamed on Islamists. Turkish prosecutors are also currently investigating a separate alleged plot that implicates retired and serving military officers to overthrow the AK Party of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.
According to one analyst under the conditions of a global financial and economic meltdown, Turkish society today faces a new acute crisis and conditions of profound instability. Given the extreme divisions and loss of

credibility and influence on the part of the "secularist" parties—the once mighty "centre-right" parties have no representation in parliament at the moment—only one force is capable of providing a violent corrective to the AKP government: ‘the Turkish military’.
However some analysts observe that the recent uproar has underlined the waning influence of the generals as the Muslim country has pushed liberal reforms aimed at winning membership of the European Union. "The era when the military in Turkey could take charge of the country is over and it has become more answerable to the public," says Hugh Pope, an author, "There is a readjustment under way in the civilian-military relationship in Turkey,”. §
Discussion Question:
¨ Which camp of debate are you more inclined towards, those who believe that another Military intervention is eminent in Turkey, or those who believe the Civil Military paradigm has evolved into one that would not tolerate such intervention?

________________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
Please Preview your comments before posting.

Week # 101, Dated 01 to 08 January 2010
TURKEY
Political Front:
Turkish PM has reiterated his commitment to democratic initiative in order to bring political reforms in his country and to resolve the Kurdish issue. Meanwhile the military’s involvement in various plots to ‘damage’ democratic government has deteriorated its position in the country. In this light government has brought constitutional amendment allowing civilian courts to call army officers in the case of breaching law. The President and PM have however opined that that military is a strong institution that demands respect.
Geo-strategic Front:
Turkish Foreign Minister recently paid a visit to Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile Palestinian President Mahmud Abbass also paid a two-day visit to Turkey.

President Mehmet Ali Talat of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) has held several talks in Brussels regarding the resolution of the Cyprus issue. Talat also held meetings with the Turkish PM regarding the dispute. Meanwhile Greece has alleged Turkish fighter violated its air zone.
The Turkish President and his Iranian counterpart have reaffirmed their joint stance ruling out a “military solution” as a way to resolve the problems of war-torn Afghanistan. Meanwhile Iran and Turkey have established a technical delegation for the development of an industrial zone between the two countries.
Turkey has reiterated its support for Palestine and has strongly condemned Israel for deploying its troops in Gaza. At the same time growing Turkish-Chinese have also been significant.
As regards the Turkish membership in the EU, a split can be observed among various European countries. Germany as well as Belgium’s newly appointed prime minister have backed Turkey’s membership talks with the European Union. Meanwhile Spain has maintained a rigid stance regarding Turkish membership of the European Union. Spanish view has become critically important since it currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU.
Social Front:
Success of Imam-hatip Schools in Turkey has led many countries including Bulgaria, Pakistan and Russia to seek Turkish government’s assistance in establishing such systems on there home stead.
Hurriyat Daily’s Editor-in-Chief Ozkok resigned from his post for having misread the ongoing situations in the country. Meanwhile a bill has been proposed by Republican People’s Party (CHP) to postpone the implementation of a smoking ban in closed areas. Also Pope Benedict XVI has sought more freedom for the Catholic Church in Turkey.
Economic Front:
Despite economic recovery the Turkish textile sector still seems to be in doldrums amid 22% decreased exports. Meanwhile the Turkish Stock exchange has observed remarkable improvement.
GCC- Gulf Cooperation Council
Geo-strategic Front:

GCC nations have planned to invest USD 109 billion on rail projects in the next 10 years in order to resolve traffic congestion issues.
Saudi King Abdullah held talks with the Jordanian King on major regional and international issues. Also Saudi Arabia and Turkey have called on Iran to avoid escalating its standoff with the international community over its nuclear program. Meanwhile Hamas’ leader Khalid Meshaal has asked Saudi Arabia to play a special role in Palestinian Reconciliation. President of PNA Mahmud Abbass also paid a visit to Kuwait.
Pakistan and Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development have signed a loan agreement amounting to $50 million to finance the Reconstruction of Higher Education Institution Project in the earthquake affected areas of AJK. Yemen's president met a top US general to discuss boosting military cooperation. Meanwhile Yemeni Foreign Minister claimed that his country would not allow any foreign intervention in the fight against Al-Qaeda.
Bahraini Parliament’s speaker has held a meeting with his Iranian counterpart. He extended his nation’s support for the Iranian right to peaceful nuclear technology.
Social Front:
Last November’s floods in Jeddah have drastically reduced the prices of property over there. Meanwhile the Labor Ministry of UAE has allowed workers to change their employer if he doesn’t give them wages for two months. The government has also made tough laws against the consumption and production of tobacco.
World’s tallest hotel was opened in Dubai on 7 January 2010.
Economic Front:
The heightened security screening imposed by the United States on passengers from 14 countries including Saudi Arabia is expected to negatively impact Saudi-US trade. Meanwhile Bahrain's pharmaceutical market has witnessed sharp decline in the year 2009 due to the global economic downturn. However above 4% growth is expected in the year 2010. According to a new report by the Royal Bank of Scotland Group the UAE and Bahrain have been added to a list of countries most at risk of suffering a sovereign debt crisis in 2010.
Crumbling economy has caused instability in Yemen as a secessionist movement has started in the south while. A Shia rebellion has also started in the Northern part of the country.
The Middle East's first carbon dioxide recovery plant has been opened by Bahrain’s Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company (GPIC).
CENTRAL ASIA
Political Front:
Municipal elections in Azerbaijan observed low turn out as well as some procedural violations, leading to protests in three villages. Meanwhile the Kyrgyz opposition leader has alleged government involvement in a recent journalist’s murder.
Tajikistan's upper chamber of parliament has approved amendments to the country’s administrative code and code of civil procedure. Meanwhile Local Tajik officials have expressed satisfaction over their success in curtailing the influence of the banned Islamist movement Hizb ut-Tahrir in the northern Sughd Province.
Geo-strategic Front:
Iranian embassy has announced its plan to introduce visa free travel with Azerbaijan.
Kazakhstan has acquired the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) commencing January, 1, 2010.
Uzbek government has released two detained Kyrgyz border guards. Meanwhile a Tajik citizen has been sentenced to 20 years in prison after being convicted of spying for Uzbekistan. The Iranian President held a meeting with his Tajik counterpart during his visit to Tajikistan. Also Iranian officials have announced to allocate $5mln in loan for the completion of the construction work of Tajikistan's Istiqlol tunnel.
Social Front:
A major terrorist attack along the Baku-Moscow railway in Makhachkala has been prevented by FSB. Meanwhile Sonet-129 by Azerbaijani filmmaker has claimed an award at the Golden Net international film festival in Russia.
Economic Front:
Azerbaijan launched its natural gas export to Russia on 1st January 2010. Meanwhile the Central Bank of Azerbaijan has announced new record levels of domestic commercial banks' assets - $13.905 bn on exchange rate as of 1st December 2009.
The size of state social and pension payments have increased in Kazakhstan. Meanwhile the Government of Kyrgyzstan has announced its plan to build 12 small hydro power plants in the year 2010. As part of the monetary reform, new coins in the denomination of 1 and 2 manat have been put into circulation in Turkmenistan starting January 1, 2010. meanwhile the second pipeline from Turkmenistan to Iran has been officially launched on 6 January 2010.
INDIA
Political Front:
National level: One of the senior members of BJP Yashwant Sinha who had been previously sidelined because of his confrontational stance with some key figures of the party, has now been offered the chairmanship of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs. Meanwhile BJP’s former President Rajnath Singh has asked government to redefine the term ‘minorities’ in terms of regions in spite of religion.
As far as Telangana dispute is concerned eight parties talks for the resolution of the issue failed. PM Man Mohan Singh has expressed serious concern regarding growing and declared it a major threat for the stability of the whole region.
Regional front: Governments of Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Orissa have launched operations against Maoist and Naxal rebels, without remarkable success so far. At this critical moment Mamta Banerje has declared government's launched operation against rebels to be a failure.
Geo-strategic Front:
India has expressed serious concern over China’s arms supply to Pakistan. India has also criticized the Gilgit-Baltistan development in Pakistan and has declared the region a part of Kashmir.
New Delhi has signed Testtia river agreement with Dhaka to resolve water dispute. The government has also asserted that it ‘shares a strong bond’ with Afghanistan and has expressed determination to further strengthen existing ties with Africa.
Meanwhile the increasing number of incidents regarding torture and killing of Indian students in Australia has become a serious concern for the government.
Social Front:
Man Mohan Singh has expressed dissatisfaction with Copenhagen’s Climate Summit saying it failed India’s expectations. In the meantime a Cold wave has claimed 125 lives in the country mainly in the northern region and UP.
Economic Front:
Indian markets experienced a boost as the New Year commenced. In the last quarter of 2009, Indian exports witnessed improvement; domestic demand also helped Indian economy gain stability. Meanwhile in a bid to boost employment, corporate sector in India has decided to train 1.1 lakh jobless youth for 3 to 4 months. Food inflation however has caused a serious concern for the growing economy.
The Kerala High Court has directed the State government and the Kerala State Industrial Development Corporation (KSIDC) to ensure that a newly formed banking company, said to be based on Islamic principles, is not allowed to commence its operations until further orders.
EAST ASIA
Political Front:

Indonesian President Yodhoyono seems to have lost ground due to corruption allegations against some key figures of his regime. The president has sought help from coalition partners and some have also been involved in the investigation of the of Vice President and Finance Minister’s involvement in the 6.7-trillion-rupiah (723-million-dollar) rescue of Bank Century in 2008. In Malaysia 102 PAS members have recently joined UMNO.
Resignation of the health Minister in Thailand has led to what the PM considers a minor reshuffle. Meanwhile Thailand's United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) has announced to launch a new series of protests aimed at toppling the ruling regime.
Geo-strategic Front:
Cambodian Administrative Court has ruled against a cabinet resolution approving a Thai-Cambodian memorandum of understanding on the listing of Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage site.
Social Front:
Death toll of bird flu victims in Indonesia has reached 134.
Amidst increasing tensions in Malaysia, uproar among Muslims over the use of the word Allah by Christians increased over the weekend with the firebombing and vandalizing of several churches. Malaysia Foundation has strongly condemned attacks calling it a serious threat to racial harmony in the country.
Tens of thousands of Filipinos have been safely evacuated from the shadow of a volcano that began spewing ash and lava. Meanwhile a military commander of Philippines has declared Abu Sayyaf to be a major threat despite continuous decline in its strength over the years.
Economic Front:
Indonesian government expects its economy to grow by 6.6% annually from this year onwards. Meanwhile government has announced to reduce poverty level and to increase jobs in the years to come. Also the Indonesian Council of Ulema has asked the government to be more cautious about Halal food while importing it from Newzeland and Western countries. Cambodian government too has announced its plan to set up a body to certify Halal food in the country.
Malaysian government is keen to attain economic growth of 5% this year surpassing the projection of both IMF & the World Bank. Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore have also recently signed a Free Trade Agreement with India and South Korea.
A major source of concern for Thai people appears to be economy. A recently held poll by Bangkok University discovered that 39.7 percent of the total 1,123 respondents in Bangkok feared that the country's economy would not recover. Thai government however seems optimistic about their economic recovery after the effectiveness of ASEAN Free Trade Area. Employment conditions in Thailand have remarkably improved aswell. Statistically unemployment in the country stood at 400,000 in December, or 1.1 percent of the working population.
Philippines and Vietnam have been identified as two of the most potential growth markets for alcoholic drinks. Meanwhile Laotian government has made plans to promote agricultural production of Lao people in both dry and rainy seasons, enhance the stabilization of the national macro-economy, increase the stabilization of state administration, and promote energy and mining production by improving its management procedures and mechanisms.
CHINA
Political Front:
Corruption has badly affected Chinese image at an international level leading to the government’s efforts to deal with the menace. A total of 106,626 officials across China were penalized for disciplinary violations from January to November last year.
Geo-strategic Front:
China has asked the US to cancel and cease arms deal with Taiwan. Meanwhile China has extended support for establishing dialogue between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the United States.
China has also reiterated its calls for diplomatic efforts on the Iranian nuclear issue as the United States seeks sanctions against Iran. Further more China has asked the international community to increase aid and assistance to Afghanistan.
China’s efforts to boost ties with Uruguay, Britain, EU, Mexico, Africa, Singapore, Nigeria, Italy, Chili, Norway, Turkey, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Pakistan have been significant.
Economic Front:
China has announced to encourage private enterprises to invest in publishing business. A survey by global marketing research firm ACNielsen has indicated remarkable growth in Chinese consumer confidence. Meanwhile Chinese stock exchange remained fluctuated. Total revenue in China's tourism industry is expected to grow 13 percent to hit 1.4 trillion yuan (205 billion U.S. dollars) in 2010, as the country has introduced favorable policies to back the industry.
Social Front:
China has declared foreign workers an asset for the country’s development. A senior Communist Party of China (CPC) leader called for intensified efforts to enhance media supervision to better channel public opinions and foster healthy social trends. One of the most important developments has been a remarkable decrease in the swine flu. ________________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
Please Preview your comments before posting.

BPM- Asia Zone

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Zone 1- Micro Analysis'Turkey’s Civil Military Relations-

Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 101

Total Pageviews

Disclaimer

Search This Blog

Home Page

regional pages

Sub-Regional Pages

About BPM

Blog Archive

Labels

Followers