Zone 1- Micro Analysis- UK Summit on Afghanistan

Week #104 – Dated 23rd to 29th January 2010

One-day international conference in London
January 28th, 2010

The London Conference on Afghanistan was held last month on the 28th of January, 2010. It was largely perceived as an opportunity for European leaders to showcase their civilian and foreign aid contributions to Afghanistan, convincing a highly skeptical public of the functionality of their Afghan policy and continued troop contributions. The Conference also marks a phase commencing plans for the transition of power, reconciliation and reintegration in the war ravaged nation. According to Gen Stanley McChrystal: "We're here to give time and space to the Afghan people to build a nation"

The conference was attended by regional leaders and representatives of the US led coalition. Iran however was missing from the meetings, reportedly because of its stance that the summit was primarily still aimed at increasing military action in the region. Critics too have pointed out the conspicuous lack of a time table despite ambitious targets for rapidly expanding the Afghan National Army and the police force. Since the American review of its afghan strategy under the Obama regime, a number of international interactions have been underway focusing on a way forward for the destabilized region.

Last year on June 11-12 an international conference entitled, "Afghanistan, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Eurasian Security and Geopolitics," took place in Kyrgyzstan. It focused on proposed participation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in an Afghani crisis resolution and future development.

More recently, leading up to the London summit a one day regional summit was held in Turkey on the 25th of January 2010. The summit was the fourth in a series of high level meetings between the three nations and primarily focused on economic and security issues pertinent to regional stability. The summit was later extended to another cooperation initiative called the ‘Summit of Friendship and Cooperation in the Heart of Asia’. High level officials from China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Iran were in attendance; however India was excluded from the proceedings in lieu of Pakistan’s reservations.

At an earlier date Ministerial level talks were also held in Islamabad on January 16, 2010 where Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan affirmed their trilateral cooperation as a key to peace and stability in Afghanistan, while proclaiming that any regional arrangement for resolving the Afghan conflict should co-opt only immediate neighbors of the war-ravaged country.

Among the regional stake holders Iran’s reserved stance towards the international summit and its refusal to participate has been attributed to the view that the event aimed at “focusing on more military action rather than exploring the real roots of the problem.” British Foreign Secretary and conference chairman David Miliband criticized Tehran’s decision and termed it "inexplicable." However, according to one analyst Iran’s stance towards the London Conference reflects the concerns of regional stakeholders who are deeply concerned about the ambitious policy of the US to encourage India, marginalize Pakistan and use ‘moderate’ Taliban against ‘hostile regional players’ in Asia.

Meanwhile on the Indian front the national debate has been divided regarding the extent of Indian involvement in Afghanistan. One segment is of the view (reflected in the words of C. Raja in the Indian Express)that following India’s great run in Afghanistan in Phase One (2001 till until recently), stasis has gripped India’s security policy in recent months and maneuvering by the Pakistan army now threaten to ‘marginalize Delhi in Phase Two.’ Contrary to this view another analyst in the Indian daily ‘The Hindu’ opined that the London summit has exposed India’s ‘flawed Afghan policy’. According to him in 1997-98 Delhi perhaps made a ‘strategic mistake’ by regarding Afghanistan as a ‘theatre of India-Pakistan rivalry’. Citing Pakistan’s strategic location, he deems Afghanistan’s priority ties with it a logical eventuality.

With the recent developments Pakistan has come forth as a pivotal player, openly asserting its reservations regarding Indian involvement in post war Afghanistan. Pakistan, according to Foreign Minister Qureshi, is of the opinion that the existing mechanisms in place are ‘adequate and working well’, hence there is ‘no need for new regional architecture’. He added that as India has no border with Afghanistan, it does not fit into the scheme, accept perhaps in assisting development. In the recent NATO Military conference in Brussels, COAS General Kiyani too stressed an openly India centric National stance while voicing Pakistan’s willingness to reconsider and renounce its traditional understanding of ‘Strategic Depth’ in the region. The general said “if Afghanistan is peaceful, stable and friendly, we have our strategic depth because our western border is secure.”

According to official sources the aim of the conference, co-hosted by the UK, UN and Afghanistan, was to agree on a clear international plan for the next 18 months in Afghanistan and move forward towards an ultimate transition of power to established local authorities. Where it may have defined the parameters of success and failure and chalked out a co-operative path, critics have still voiced concerns regarding the efficacy of the new strategy in the face of ebbing western optimism. The concluding communiqué declared the conference as a “decisive step towards greater Afghan leadership to secure, stabilize and develop Afghanistan,” an assertion that only time will test.

Bibliography/Related Links:
http://csis.org/publication/regaining-european-foreign-policy-visibility-and-london-conference-afghanistan
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Afghan-Neighbors-Key-Players-Prep-For-London-Conference-82707607.html
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2010/01/2010128165738518879.html
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1957537,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8480368.stm
http://www.rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/derrick/2010/01/london-conference-afghanistan-rebranding-unpopular-war
http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page22313
http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page22312
http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/33129
http://beta.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article100379.ece?homepage=true February 4, 2010
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C01%5C29%5Cstory_29-1-2010_pg7_37
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=222988
http://www.hindustantimes.com/rssfeed/europe/India-a-mute-spectator-at-Afghanistan-summit/Article1-503209.aspx
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/towards-a-grand-summit/573832/
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100202_pakistan_emergence_new_approach_afghanistan
http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/20100128_brief_communique_speaks_withdrawal_afghanistan
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15409496
http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2399
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/04-tripartite-meeting-qs-08
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2010/01/mil-100116-irna01.htm
http://beta.thehindu.com/news/international/article81320.ece
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-199676-turkey-afghanistan-pakistan-summit-focuses-on-stability.html
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/96403/presidents-of-turkey-afghanistan-and-pakistan-meet-.html
http://theglobalrealm.com/2010/02/08/pakistans-military-sets-afghan-terms
http://www.nato.int/ims/news/2010/n100127e.html
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_55016.htm?selectedLocale=en
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/TheLondonConferenceItistimeforIndiatoreassessitsAfghanPolicy_agupta_010210

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Zone 1- Micro Analysis'Turkey’s Civil Military Relations-

Week #101 – Dated 1st -8th January 2010

“Due to our old habits, we have been facing difficulties in adapting ourselves to today’s laws,” President Abdullah Gül said recently upon questions over the ongoing search being conducted by a civilian judge at a military headquarters, for the first time in Turkish history. The search is in connection with an investigation into an alleged assassination plot against Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç in mid-December. In the wake of this most recent assassination scandal Turkey's top general said last week that reports of a military plot to undermine the government were part of a smear campaign to divide the armed forces and pledged he would never tolerate coup activities.
The controversy has raised tensions between the military and the AK Party, which has roots in political Islam but also embraces center-right and nationalist forces. In 2001 the AKP was formed under the leadership of Erdogan as a split from the main Islamist party and the "old guard." Along with sharp shifts within the Turkish bourgeoisie in general, the wing with Islamist sympathies had also changed profoundly. The AKP distanced itself from the traditional line of the Turkish Islamist movement known as the "national view" doctrine and adopted a very friendly approach to the West and global finance capital and its policies are reflective of any right-wing party in Turkey.
Since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the modern secular Republic of Turkey in 1923, the Turkish military has perceived itself as the guardian of Kemalism, the official state ideology. The Turkish Armed Forces TAF still maintain an important degree of influence over politics and the decision making process regarding issues related to national security, albeit with a decrease in the past decades, via the National Security Council.
The military has had a record of intervening in politics. In 1997 the Turkish military presented an ultimatum to the Islamist-dominated coalition government ultimately dislodging the ruling regime. This was the fourth military intervention in Turkey since the end of the Second World War. The Turkish military had previously carried out coups in 1960, 1971 and 1980. Where the 1960 and 1971 military coups had institutional reform as their objective, the 1980 action was undertaken to shore up the order created by the earlier interventions. In the course of the military intervention in 1997, General Cevik Bir, the deputy chief of general staff, cynically declared that the aim of the army "was to readjust the balance of democracy."
During the last two decades many bourgeois commentators, including certain sections of the so-called "left," have claimed there is no longer any possibility of a major military intervention in Turkey—either overtly or covertly. Analysts however are divided on this issue. The variables dominating the current political arena are multifarious and unprecedented, Turkey’s bid for the EU being a vital point of reference here.
Scandals, controversies and speculations have been at their zenith this past year and so far there is no indication that the tide might ebb. In the last couple of years documents surfaced in the media that indicated that some former commanders led by the commander of the gendarmerie, General Sener Aydin, had planned two separate military coups in 2003 and 2004 under the codenames Sarikiz (Daisy) and Ayisigi (Moonlight). These however never manifested.
The ‘threat’ of renewed action by the Turkish military has also come to light in the high-profile court case and investigation into a conspiracy known as Ergenekon, in which a clandestine ultra-nationalist group is charged with attempting to create a chaotic political environment with the aim of triggering a direct military intervention.
Referred to as the concept of ‘Deep state’ it is believed to be a group of influential anti-democratic coalitions within the Turkish political system, composed of high-level elements within the intelligence services, Turkish military, security, judiciary, and mafia. The notion of deep state is similar to that of a "state within the state" and in the Turkish case seems to be a social phenomenon, seemingly based on a confluence of fact and conspiracy theories. It is a term widely used to describe renegade members of the security forces said to act outside the law in what they judge to be Turkey's best interests.
The police investigation into Ergenekon was launched in June 2007 after the discovery of stacked away explosives said to be of the same make used by the military. There are also indications that the investigation has managed to link Ergenekon with the two failed military coup attempts devised by military commanders.
On June 12 2009, the liberal left Taraf daily published an unclassified document outlining another covert operation titled "Action Plan against Reactionary Forces" in the context of the Ergenekon case. The alleged action plan was for the military to combat the “reactionary activities” against secularism prepared by senior staff Colonel Dursun Cicek and defined the ruling AKP and the Gulen movement as threats to the secular order in Turkey. The plan outlined various measures to undermine public support for the AKP and advocated a conspiracy against the Gulen movement to present it as an armed criminal group that could be construed as a terrorist organization. Later a report prepared by three experts at the Istanbul Council of Forensic Medicine (ATK) showed that the signature on the original copy belonged to Colonel Cicek, hence dispelling allegations of it being a forgery. However a segment of military officers are reportedly convinced that this is not a plot against the AKP government conducted by the armed forces but rather the reverse.
The government is also investigating another manifestation of the alleged plot by Naval officers under the name ‘Operation Cage Action Plan’ aiming to attack non-Muslim minorities to discredit the ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party The alleged plan, one of several reported in Turkish media, could add to strains between the secularist military and the government. The alleged "Cage Operation Action Plan" involved bomb attacks, kidnappings and assassinations against non-Muslims, which would then be blamed on Islamists. Turkish prosecutors are also currently investigating a separate alleged plot that implicates retired and serving military officers to overthrow the AK Party of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.
According to one analyst under the conditions of a global financial and economic meltdown, Turkish society today faces a new acute crisis and conditions of profound instability. Given the extreme divisions and loss of credibility and influence on the part of the "secularist" parties—the once mighty "centre-right" parties have no representation in parliament at the moment—only one force is capable of providing a violent corrective to the AKP government: ‘the Turkish military’.
However some analysts observe that the recent uproar has underlined the waning influence of the generals as the Muslim country has pushed liberal reforms aimed at winning membership of the European Union. "The era when the military in Turkey could take charge of the country is over and it has become more answerable to the public," says Hugh Pope, an author, "There is a readjustment under way in the civilian-military relationship in Turkey,”. §
Discussion Question:
¨ Which camp of debate are you more inclined towards, those who believe that another Military intervention is eminent in Turkey, or those who believe the Civil Military paradigm has evolved into one that would not tolerate such intervention?

Bibliography/Related Links
http://www.esiweb.org/pdf/turkey%20-%20Operation%20Cage%20(Kafes)%20Action%20Plan%20(English%20translation).pdf
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12514
http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/110004023772/en
http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=14568&t=The+Ergenekon+affair%3A+Turkish%2FOrthodox+controversy
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE55P29I20090626
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=194669
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?ots591=4888CAA0-B3DB-1461-98B9-E20E7B9C13D4&lng=en&id=53551
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_Turkey
http://www.esiweb.org/index.php?lang=en&id=415
http://www.turkishgladio.com/read.php?id=112
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2009-12-16-ergenekon-berlin-based-think-tank-releases-operation-cage-plan-in-english-translation
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/columnists-193447-fiction-of-fictionand-the-deep-state.html
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=how-the-turkish-military-conspires-against-turkish-society-2009-11-20
http://www.esiweb.org/index.php?lang=en&id=281&story_ID=21
http://bianet.org/english/media/117922-action-plan-against-reactionary-forces---a-chronology

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Zone 1- Micro Analysis: ‘India’s Revised Military Doctrine-

Week #100 – Dated Dec. 27th-Jan. 2nd 2009-10’

'A new Chapter in the Sino-Indian Dynamic?’

In remarks reported last week, Indian army chief Gen Deepak Kapoor reaffirmed that India was evolving a new military doctrine, outlining some of its key elements. The Army is now revising its five-year-old doctrine to effectively meet the challenges of a possible `two front war' with China and Pakistan, deal with asymmetric and fourth-generation warfare, and enhance strategic reach and joint operations with IAF and Navy. Dr. Maleeha Lodhi, a leading Pakistani academician and diplomat, notes that under the recent revisions:
* The Indian army is revising its five-year-old doctrine to meet the challenge of war with China and Pakistan.
* The development of the "cold start" strategy is progressing "successfully."
* Five "thrust areas" will determine the new doctrine:
i) Dealing with the eventuality of a "two-front" war.
ii) Countering "both military and non-military facets of asymmetric and sub-conventional threats."
iii) Enhancing "strategic reach and out-of-area capabilities" to protect India's interests from the Persian Gulf to the Malacca Strait.
iv) Attaining "operational synergy" between the three services.
v) Achieving a technological edge over adversaries.
According to Dr. Lodhi the emerging doctrine appears to be both aspirational and emulative. Aspirational because its breadth and sweep reflects a mindset that seeks to create "big power" dynamics by projecting India as a rival to China and aiming to develop a capacity to act in two combat theatres simultaneously. She further notes that the doctrine also emulates the US Pentagon's Quadrennial Defence Review undertaken every four years and borrows superpower language to assert the need to build "out of area" capabilities and acquire "strategic reach", quoting it as ‘the most presumptuous tenet of the doctrine which employs the idiom of big powers without, however, the capability to back it’.
Another analyst notes The mentioning of China in Indian chief statement is a mere indication to West and US that now India is ready to take a role of regional power a counter against communist China.
Over the years a Chief irritants to the Sino-Indian relationship have been a continuing border dispute. At the security front India is also concerned by China's burgeoning defense expenditure, its building of infrastructure along the border, and its "string of pearls" strategy of setting up naval bases in the Indian Ocean. According to one Indian analyst India is now taking steps -- albeit belatedly -- to strategically counter the stark military asymmetry with China in the eastern sector.
On the other hand China has its own strategic concerns, particularly the fact that India is being courted by the U.S. in a strategy aimed at forging a regional alliance comprising India, Japan, Australia and the U.S. This week Army chief General Deepak Kapoor will be visiting Myanmar, a country with which India has ramped up diplomatic as well as military ties to counter China's deep strategic inroads there. With the revised Indian defence doctrine where Pakistan has been prompt in its response, describing India's reported move as 'betraying hostile intent' and reflecting a 'hegemonic and jingoistic mindset'. The People's Republic of China has not come out so far with any official reaction on the subject.
An Indian analyst D S Rajan comments that it is interesting to note that the same theme of India's 'two front war', worded a bit differently as 'two front mobile warfare' has figured in an in-depth authoritative Chinese evaluation of India's defence strategy, done as early as November 2009. Titled 'Great Changes in India's Defence Strategy -- War objective shifts to giving China importance, while treating Pakistan as lightweight', the analysis contributed by Hao Ding, a researcher of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, published in the Party-affiliated Chinese language organ, China Youth Daily, on November 27, 2009, identifies five shifts that have taken place in India's defence strategy:
'In terms of goals, India now aims at becoming a global military power in contrast to its earlier objective to acquire a regional military power status'. 'From the point of view of strategic guidelines the 'active defence' concept has replaced the old line of passive defence’. India is stressing on taking initiatives so as to be able to conduct a hi-tech 'limited conventional war' against the enemy 'under conditions of nuclear deterrence'.
The write-up says that in 21st century, India has done a reassessment of the military threats coming from Pakistan and China. It considers that in comparison to Pakistan, China is politically stable with a fast developing economy, a continuously accelerating military modernization drive and growing comprehensive national strength. Therefore, the potentials of 'China threat' to it are on the rise.
In matters of strategic deployment, India has shifted to a strategy of stabilizing the western front and strengthening the northern front as well as giving equal emphasis to land and sea warfare, in contrast to the earlier stress only on land warfare.
A recent Chinese assessment by an analyst under the title 'Panoramic View of International Military Situation in 2009', the analysis contributed by Ma Kang, deputy director, Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defence University, Liberation Army Daily, December 29 highlights the defence budget increases in the US, Russia and India. It points to India's '24 percent defence budget increase' in 2009 as compared to previous year as well as efforts to build an aircraft carrier of its own, launch of first home made submarine Arihant and goals set towards possessing 'three dimensional nuclear strategic capability.'
What stand out are the unmistakable adversarial tones with which the two highly placed Chinese experts have talked about India. What Indian analysts highlight is the apparent dichotomy in the thinking of the civilian and military apparatus in China on relationship with India.
At top-level defense talks in Beijing last week, China and India announced the resumption of their "Hand in Hand" military training exercises in 2011, the first positive news in China-India relations in several months. Quoting what Indian analysts deem as mixed signals from china, they note that it would be in India's interests to continue 'engaging' China. It should at the same time take all necessary steps to protect its strategic interests; whereby they assert India's revised defence strategy proves that it is prepared to do the same.

Discussion Question:
¨ Is the revamped Indian strategy too ambitious in its approach or is it a balanced assessment of a swiftly evolving regional dynamic?

Bibliography/ Related Sources:
1. http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2010/01/14/cold-start-indian-threat-pakistan-china
2. http://gokunming.com/en/blog/item/1317/china_india_military_drills_back_on_for_2011
3. http://www.upiasia.com/Security/2009/09/04/chinas_military_advantage_over_india_vanishing/9317/
4. http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/21245.asp
5. http://thecurrentaffairs.com/contemplating-a-rationale-for-general-deepak-kapoor.html
6. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Eye-on-China-Army-chief-on-Myanmar- visit/articleshow/5107164.cms
7. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Army-reworks-war-doctrine-for-Pakistan-China/articleshow/5392683.cms
8. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1931739,00.html
9. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1697595,00.html?iid=sphere-inline-bottom
10. http://news.rediff.com/column/2010/jan/07/how-china-views-indias-new-defence-doctrine.htm
11. http://www.daily.pk/why-china%E2%80%99s-ignores-india-and-its-new-%E2%80%98military- doctrine%E2%80%99-14334/
12. http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=216861

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
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Zone 1- Micro Analysis: Missile Defence in the Middle East- America’s revamped plans. Week # 87, Dated 17th Sept-2nd Oct. 09’

In a radical revision of policy President Barack Obama has announced aborting missile defenses in Eastern Europe, originally being developed under the pretext of protection of the alleged missile threat from Iran, and possibly even North Korea.

The former Bush administration actively pushed the project with intentions to deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic by 2013; this was a program heavily invested in but lacked confidence in its projected functionality. However this policy antagonized Moscow which feared the shield would ultimately erode its own strategic nuclear deterrent.

Defence Secretary Robert Gates opined that owning to the great strides in missile defence and particularly the ability to counter short-and-medium-range missiles, the US has proven capabilities to intercept ballistic missiles with land-and-sea-based interceptors supported by much-improved sensors. These developments have propelled the deployment of a distributive sensor network through Naval Carriers patrolling the South Seas. A changed assessment of Iranian capabilities regarding its long-range missile programme by the US intelligence also contributed to the revamped plans.

Speaking of Obama's decision former Assistant Secretary of Defense explained that the current U.S. administration's plan focuses on what Iran actually does have i.e. short and medium range missiles that can reach southern Europe. The new plan might include deploying an X-band radar, a single directional device meant for detection, which may further assuage Russian concerns. This speculation has put the spotlight on Azerbaijan as a potential site, which borders Iran as well.

With the program scrapped, it opens the way for Russia, considered a major Iranian ally, to join with the United States in taking a harder line towards the country. This is being considered by analysts as yet another strategic move to isolate Iran and deter its aspirations for pursuing its alleged nuclear ambitions.

While in Eastern Europe, Poland and the Czech Republic, the original partner states, had based much of their future security policy on getting the missile defenses from the United States. The countries share deep concerns of a future military threat from the east- namely, Russia- and the local administrations had pursued the programs despite its lack of popularity at the domestic front.

However analysts are of the view that this new approach is more pragmatic and takes Russia onboard for greater co-operation on sanctions against possible new comers in the nuclear nations, Iran and North Korea; or on the broader agenda of restricting and regulating nuclear weapons worldwide and establishing a consensual (critiques would say hegemonic) global regulatory regime.


Discussion Questions:

· Do you think that America, with its revised defence program radically changing the tone towards Russia, has miscalculated the reactions of its East European allies?

· Would a united American and Russian front against Iran fare better in yielding diplomatic pressures on the country?

Related Links/ Bibliography
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6720153.stm
http://www.thearynews.com/english/newsdetail.asp?nid=34132
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2009/09/200991762548235181.html
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/09/what-a-revamped-us-missile-shield-might-look-like/
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/09/17/united.states.missile.shield/index.html

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 1- Asia. Microscopic Analysis: ‘Life Long Presidency’ in Kazakhstan- a Pseudo Democracy? ; Week # 86. Dated 20th-26th Sept, 09'

A leader of Kazakhstan's ruling party recently floated a suggestion for constitutional changes redefining the role of the president, opening the door to making President Nursultan Nazarbeyev head of state for life.

The comments came one week after the president's website and state television ran a eulogy of Nazarbayev that called for an end to democratic elections, sparking speculation that such a change was in the works. The idea was allegedly proposed to the president by Zakratdin Baidosov, a professor in the northwestern city of Aqtobe, during a recent visit there by Nazarbaev.

Nazarbayev is the recognized leader of Nur Otan party, which controls all elected seats in the lower house of parliament. He has always sought to maintain the semblance of democracy in his one-party state. Officially, Nazarbayev received 91 percent of the vote in the last presidential election in 2005, which was declared flawed by international observers. The country's pliant parliament did away with restrictions on presidential term limits in 2007, opening the door for Nazarbayev - who has run the country since the Soviet days and after independence - to continue ruling the ex-Soviet state indefinitely.

With this latest development opposition leaders were adamant over the suggestion that Nazarbayev should be freed from a fundamental democratic check against executive excess. Some issued dire warnings about Kazakhstan’s future if the president-for-life concept became a reality.

On the international front as well eliminating further elections would likely be a controversial move, as Kazakhstan prepares to take over the rotating chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE in January. Allegations of restricting independent media and rights groups - including a recent arrest of the country's most prominent human rights activist – has prompted criticism from rights groups.

Nevertheless Nazarbayev is genuinely popular among ordinary Kazakhs. He has been applauded for forging relative social harmony in a country where 130 ethnic groups live. Popular pride in Kazakhstan is heightened by the country’s favorable comparisons with neighboring states, which are more economically stressed and politically unstable. Nazarbayev’s critics however say that his positive image is partly the product of the administration’s tight control over mass media

Recent polls show Nazarbayev’s approval rating remains high: research conducted in May by Baltic Surveys Ltd. and The Gallup Organization indicated he enjoys the support of 84 percent of the population.[1]
The presidential administration has denied being behind the president-for-life ‘trial balloon’, claiming it to be the initiative of ‘specific people’. They have further stressed that the issue is not on the administration’s agenda. The speculations however have sparked a national debate which may determine the course of Kazakhstan’s democratic credentials in the long term.

Discussion Questions:

· Does Nazarbayev’s popularity in national polls, despite International Observers having termed the elections flawed, neutralize allegations of a pseudo democratic Kazakhstan?

· Is the mere suggestion of a ‘president for life’ political option reflective of a nation devoid of a robust democratic conscience?

· Is the national debate too short sighted in essence, banking excessively on Nazerbayev’s unifying leadership, at the expense of developing credible institutions?

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Bibliography:
[1] Kazakh National Opinion Poll, conducted May 9- 23, 2009. http://www.iri.org/newsreleases/pdfs/IRI%20Southern%20Kazakhstan%20May%202009%20PDF%20-%20English.pdf § http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=party-leader-kazakhstan-to-consider-lifelong-presidency-2009-09-15
§ http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav092409.shtml
§ http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav091307.shtml
§ http://www.rferl.org/content/OSCE_Mum_On_Kazakh_PresidentForLife_Initiative/1825942.html
§ http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav061909.shtml

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Asia Micro Analysis - Indonesian Democracy Under Threat?- Week # 84, Dated 6th-12th sept, 2009

Is the Indonesian democracy under threat?

The election that took place in Indonesia on July 8 is being lauded as a remarkable political experiment unfolding in the world's fourth most populous nation. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was picked for a second term by roughly 60% of the voting populace, according to unofficial results, outpacing rivals Megawati Sukarnoputri and Jusuf Kalla, who garnered around 27% and 13% respectively.[1] The race is on to build alliances for the September 20 run-off.[2]

About a decade ago, Indonesians joined together in a people-power overthrow of dictator Suharto, who had ruled for 32 years. Since then, the country has had four Presidents, with peaceful transitions of power between each leader. A vastly diverse nation, skeptics concede that compared to countries such as Malaysia and Thailand, where democratic institutions are stagnating if not backsliding, Indonesia has cemented its status as Southeast Asia's political role model.

However a new debate has started to brew on this political front where experts have raised fears regarding the functional integrity of a democratic parliament where opposition has effectively been co-opted with the ruling faction. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has been trying to gain parliamentary support from all parties, especially the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), by tempting them with ministerial posts, Bonni Hargens, a political expert from the University of Indonesia opined.[3]

Over the last five years, the PDI-P has positioned itself as an opposition party in the parliament. However, the Democratic Party, established by Yudhoyono, recently supported Taufik Kiemas’ candidacy — the husband of Megawati Soekarnoputri, patron of the Democratic Party — for the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) speaker post, a move expected to sway the opposition’s stance. In such an event the composition of parliament may garner a monopolistic element.

Debate regarding the efficacy of such a situation has gained vigor; where many fear the possible slippery slope that may undermine Indonesia's democratic credentials others seem to consider it as an unlikely eventuality.

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Discussion Questions:

· In your opinion how grave is the political situation in Indonesia, in light of the prophesized threat against democracy in the absence of effective opposition?

· Do the political parties seem to be on a convergent path in terms of political stance?

· Is it too early to laud Indonesia as a democratic success story?

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[1] http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1909198,00.html
[2] http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=2859&l=1
[3] http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/09/11/indonesian-democracy-under-threat-experts.html

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Microscopic Analysis- Malaysia- a Model State? Week # 83; Dated 29th Aug-4th Sept.

Malaysian Projection of a Moderate Muslim State- a complicated relationship between religion and politics:

Recently a relatively isolated event where a Malaysian woman was found guilty of drinking alcohol and sentenced to six strokes of the cane, made international headlines. Many at the domestic Islamist front fail to understand the disquieting international reaction. But in the wider context of international politics Malaysia is looking more and more like an isolated, parochial state, raising a dilemma for the state that aims at projecting it self as a moderate model Muslim nation.

Muslims account for nearly 60% of Malaysia's 27 million people and they are barred from consuming alcohol under Islamic laws. The problem, one analyst[1] notes is manifold: for one the ruling, handled by the Shariah court of Pahang now raises the question of whether the Federal government can intervene to save face internationally. Federal-state relations in legal matters will therefore be the crux of the legal side of the debate.

Adding to the confusion is the problematic and complicated relationship between religion and politics in the country, where the borderline between Islam and politics has grown increasingly blurred after three decades of ‘state-driven Islamisation’.

Yet another incident was the recent ban levied at a concert in Kuala Lumpur because it was being sponsored by an Irish Beer Company. Though the decision was later revoked in order to boost tourism, it projects a basic predicament for the state in Malaysia. As a nation economically banking on a boosting tourist industry, the situation is made all the more complicated.

The dilemma lies in the balancing act of projecting moderation while not offending the conservative Islamic community. Malaysia has long been trying to cultivate its image as a moderate model state able to act as a cultural bridge between the west and the Muslim world. Though Malaysia’s ruling UMNO party is trying its best to defend its own Islamic credentials in the face of the opposition Islamic party PAS. The Islamic party in turn is split in its conscience, between moderates who wish to push the democratization agenda and conservatives who wish to lay the foundations for more Islamisation.

Discussion Questions:

· Has the ‘state driven Islamisation’ in Malaysia irrevocably damaged the nation’s international image?

· Does the degree of influence from international elements depict an erosion of state sovereignty?

· In a predominantly Muslim nation, with established democratic institutions, is the goal to keep religion and politics separate too ambitious?

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[1] Dr Farish A Noor, ‘Malaysia as a Model State?’, Khaleej Times, http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=/data/opinion/2009/September/opinion_September4.xml&section=opinion

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Micro Analysis - Naxalism in India- Week # 82, Dated 22nd-28th Aug, 2009

Naxalism in India; "single biggest internal security challenge" ever faced by the country?

According to this week’s reports on the Indian domestic front, Naxal insurgents continued their violent activities and destroyed government and civilian property in Jharkand and Orissa. Mnamohan Singh has termed the menace as the "single biggest internal security challenge" ever faced by the country. Recent reports by the Times of India quoted central security officials as having said that Naxalism, though it started as a people’s movement, has now evolved into an extortion business. The system with its multiple rifts has lost its original ideological drivers and functions more along feudalistic lines.

It traces its origins to a 1967 incident in the remote village of Naxalbari where a tribal youth was killed by local landlords over a land dispute. The incident triggered a great uprising which enjoyed great visibility and tremendous support from cross sections of Communist revolutionaries across different states in India.

The All India Coordination Committee of Communist Revolutionaries (AICCCR) was formed as a result in 1968, touting its two cardinal principles as allegiance to the armed struggle and non-participation in the elections. An ideological rift however distributed its leadership in two parties, the Communist Party of India (Marxist- Leninist) and the Maoist Communist Centre (MCC).

Eventually Charu Mazumdar, elected general secretary of CPI (M-L), became the undisputed Naxalite guru. However, with his death in 1972, the central leadership of CPI (M-L) virtually collapsed. The history of the Naxal movement post- Charu Mazumdar, is characterized by a number of splits, brought about by personalized and narrow perceptions about the Maoist revolutionary line and attempts at course-correction by some of the major groups; where some even joined the democratic process. The splinter CPI (M-L) Liberation in 1974, and in 1976, during the Emergency, adopted a new line that called for the continuation of armed guerilla struggles along with efforts to form a broad anti- Congress democratic front.

Further splits there on produced CPI (M-L) (Unity Organization) and the People's War Group (PWG) in 1980. Since then, the principal division within the Naxalite movement has been between the two lines of thought and action, as advanced by the CPI (ML) Liberation and the PWG. At the same time the growth of MCC as a major armed group in the same areas, created the scope for multifarious organizational conflicts among the Naxal groups.

Dr. Rajat Kumar in an ICPS[1] report notes that despite the large-scale inner conflicts, there were always ongoing efforts at various levels to strive for unity. Also 1990 onwards there was a considerable increase in the number of violent incidents and at the same time, a considerable change in the policy approach of the government was also witnessed. He further noted that while the Naxal movement has experienced innumerable splits, successive governments were never able to follow a uniform approach to deal with the problem of Naxalism, thus, leading to a marked impact in the growth of the Naxal movement.

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Discussion Questions:

· Hence far has the Naxalite movement been a success to some degree or a complete failure?

· Do you think it would gather greater strength in the future or dwindle away?

· What in your view is the basic reason behind Naxalism a) the communist ideology, or b) a convenient outlet under socio-economic deprivation?

[1] The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi, India

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 1-Asia. Microscopic Analysis: ‘Ergenekon', Turkey’s Ultra- nationalist Faction. Week #81, Dated 16th-22nd Aug, 09

More details on the ultra-nationalist group known as Ergenekon surfaced when 33 of its alleged members were seized in a police raid last year. Deemed as a clandestine organization reflective of a ‘Deep state’, media reports highlighted last week continue to speculate on alleged Ergenekon plans to attack the NATO base in Izmir, Turkey. Suspected involvement of a retired General in attacks against a police chief and a state minister, under the aegis of the covert organization were also reported.

The concept of ‘Deep state’ is believed to be a group of influential anti-democratic coalitions within the Turkish political system, composed of high-level elements within the intelligence services, Turkish military, security, judiciary, and mafia. The notion of deep state is similar to that of a "state within the state" and in the Turkish case seems to be a social phenomenon, seemingly based on a confluence of fact and conspiracy theories. It is a term widely used to describe renegade members of the security forces said to act outside the law in what they judge to be Turkey's best interests.

The phenomenon, much-discussed but never proven, is said to stretch back to Cold War times, when illicit paramilitary gangs were supposedly set up in collaboration with Western intelligence agencies to prevent the spread of communism.

Primarily issues of importance for the ultra-nationalists, in what they perceive as threats to Turkey include EU accession, Armenian genocide allegations and any talk of a peace deal to end the 25-year-old Kurdish insurgency.

One possibility voiced regarding the crackdown on the covert operations is perhaps a continuing power struggle between a government led by devout Muslims and a staunchly secular military, essentially the state and anti state elements. After years of "deep state" rumors, many see the Ergenekon case as a real test of the government's will to dig deep and expose any ties between allegedly illicit gangs and the state.

Discussion Questions:

· Is ‘deep state’ and the activities of the group known as ‘Ergenekon’ a conspiracy theory to malign the secular elite of Turkey by Islamists, or does it reflect a real problem of Turkish polity?

· Are there any cases of ‘deep state’ adventures in your state that you wish to discuss?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Microscopic Analysis- Week # 80; Dated 9th Aug- 15th Aug; Zone 1-Asia

Religious Education in Kazakhstan; Religious Revival and Government Regulation:

In 2010 Kazakhstan will serve as Chair of the 56-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and thus has been under increased international scrutiny. Recently the government's efforts to amend the country's religion law threatened increased official control over Kazakhstan's highly diverse religious communities. According to available statistics Muslims make up 47 percent of the population, Russian Orthodox 44 percent, Protestant 2 percent and others 7 percent.

In late 2008, Kazakhstan's parliament passed highly restrictive amendments to the country's religion law. The amendments established more restrictive registration procedures; prohibited proselytism and the production of religious literature; prohibited groups from maintaining worship facilities open to the public; and significantly increased fines and penalties for violations of the law. On February 12, 2009, Kazakhstan's Constitutional Council declared the amendments unconstitutional. Nevertheless, some Kazakh officials reportedly still treat the overturned amendments as valid.

Until recently Religious instruction was not permitted in public schools, but enrollment in supplemental religious classes was allowed. This is however to be amended with last week’s announcement by the Science and Education Ministry, stating that Schools in the state will start teaching religion as a compulsory subject. The ministry announced that qualified teachers would be hired to teach "all religions and their history" in order to propagate religious tolerance at an early stage.

While Islamic revival in the Central Asian region has been on the rise, mosques and religious schools have mushroomed across the region. ‘Kazakhstan Today’ reported last week the opening of Medrese abu Hanif in Almaty, along the lines of similar institutes functional all over the country. The project under the auspices of the National Administration of Muslims in Kazakhstan (SAMK), duly registered by the state, is headed by the Chief Mufti. The organization exerts significant influence over the country's practice of Islam, including selecting imams and regulating the construction of mosques. The dominant organization reportedly exercises some pressure on the non aligned imams and congregations in a country where Muslims make up 47 percent of the population, Russian Orthodox 44 percent, Protestant 2 percent and others 7 percent.

School courses on religion are a thorny issue in the state part of the former Soviet Union where atheism was a state ideology and state regulation has steadily increased, amid protests by human rights activists. On the international level however the Kazakh government has organized events to showcase what it views as its record of official religious tolerance, having hosted three religious conferences ( in 2003, 2006, and 2009).

The issue of religious education seems to be an important theme across regions. While the Kazakh government aims at regulating religious education in its domain, it perhaps fears upsurge of civil society as in the case of the Nigerian Boko Haram (meaning ‘Western education is a sin’) which demands strict imposition of religious education and law in the country.

Tentative Discussion Questions:

Could the heightened regulation of religious activity in Kazakhstan be a result of government paranoia that may trigger more harm than good in the long run?

Is heightened religious revival, as is speculated in the case of the Nigerian Boko Harem, a result of religious revival or an outlet of emotions against corrupt and incompetent governments?

Could a secular Kazakh state effectively regulate, as a non partisan administrator, the nation’s ethnic and religious diversity?
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Microscopic Analysis- Week # 78; Dated 5th July- 31st July; Zone 1-Asia

Elections in the Fertile Crescent:

Lebanon general elections 2009:
International and domestic election observers on Monday congratulated Lebanon on the peaceful holding of democratic elections, but noted the need for additional political reform.
Despite a collection of electoral law violations, Sunday's vote, which saw Lebanon's ruling alliance named March 14 retain power, was widely seen as a success given the country's heightened political tensions and a high election day turnout.

Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, has been tasked by President Michel Sleiman with forming a new government after his Western-backed coalition won the June 7 parliamentary poll. But his efforts to form a government have been hampered as rival politicians’ battle over the allocation of cabinet portfolios.

In spite of violations, the international and domestic missions each said the election confirmed Lebanon's commitment to democracy and transparency.[1]
Representatives of Hizbullah, Amal and the Future Movement, the three leading Muslim parties, held talks on July 23rd in order to boost reconciliation efforts among Lebanese factions and ensure security and stability in the capital.

Discussion Questions:

Ø Though Hizbullah is not conventionally a parliamentary party, but could the manner in which it has accepted defeat possibly suggest a new trend on how militant parties may join the main stream as a consequence of participation in electoral politics? Could this be a genuine main streaming or just a tactical step on Hizbullah’s part?

Kurdish Elections 2009:

Masud Barzani was reelected as Kurdish President: the polls, the first time Iraqi Kurds elected a president directly, went off on July 25 without major disruptions. The turn out was claimed to be close to 80% by the electoral officials.

Kurdish Regional Government KRG was established in 1992 in which PUK and KDP being the two major parties had a power sharing arrangement which ultimately ended in a dead lock. By 1994 at the brink of civil war with both the parties seeking control through politically loyal militias each party appealed to powerful neighbors, the PUK to Iran and the KDP to Saddam Hussein, for assistance in putting down the military wing of the other. A partition developed and power devolved to regional power bases.

Next election was held in 2005 and reconciliation between the two parties came in the form of the Unification agreement in Jan 2006. In Dec 2006 Nawsirwan Mustafa, former Deputy General Secretary of the PUK, as part of a self styled ‘reform wing’, resigned his position, protesting the lack of political transparency , concentration of power and corrupt office holders, essentially a ‘quasi-feudal’ fashion of rule. He created a Wisha Company, a new political platform in the form of newspapers, websites and radio and television networks. With the Change list participating independently in the elections of 2009, the KDP and the PUK joint forces to run on a single list called the ‘Kurdistan List’, a move widely perceived as an attempt to maintain their duopoly in the current system.

The reform minded opposition movement, Change, took a surprising 24% of the parliamentary vote, but claimed of fraud and aggression from the region’s ruling two party alliances. Barzani’s Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and Iraqi president Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) took 57% of the parliamentary vote.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is expected soon to visit Kurdistan, and Talabani stated that they would “tackle problems together”. In what may be an olive branch between the two leaders who barely speak, reported the state al-Iraqiya TV, Maliki called Barzani to congratulate him on his poll win. A basic issue of contention is the latter’s assertion of a resolution of outstanding disputes by sticking to Iraq’s constitution which calls for a census and referendum in Kirkuk. This however is a solution that is shunned by Baghdad and seen as destabilizing by the United Nations.

Discussion Questions
Ø What trend does the recent election reflect? Could it be secessionist, a confederation, a federal solution or continued paralysis and non resolution of competing perspectives on how to live together?

Ø As a widely participated in competitive election in a long time, as well as the credible presence of political opposition, might the ice have been broken in terms of a historic shift towards a democratic trend?

Ø Could the old duopoly’s weakening in the latest elections make it harder for the Kurds to get closer to independence and the ultimate bid to seek sovereignty?

Topic’s for discussion:
§ The path towards functional democracy seems promising in these states; however given the turmoil in the region, is it too soon to expect political maturity from the nascent system?

§ To what extent is the participatory nature of the system viable and to what degree has the political process penetrated the society?

§ What potential do these events deem towards regional reconciliation and political peace, with in borders as well as beyond borders?

[1] http://www.elections.gov.lb/news/International-observers-praise-Lebanon-s--peaceful.aspx

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Micro Analysis,Asia: Is the Indian BJP Holding on too Tightly to the Hindutva Ideology: Week # 79

Bharatiya Janata Party president Rajnath Singh recently declared that there was no question of the party compromising on “Hindutva ideology” or its “original political thinking” because it lost the recent Lok Sabha elections. This stance was directed against the views of some political analysts who said the BJP should rethink its ideology and political thinking in the wake of the parliamentary poll debacle.

During the 1980s and 1990s the campaign to demolish Babri Masjid had caught the imagination of the Hindu middle classes proving instrumental in forging the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). According to Qamar Agha, a well-known academic and political commentator, another reason for BJP’s former success was due to the all-round respect Vajpayee commanded and his readiness to compromise with allies on such contentious issues as the building of a temple dedicated to the deity Rama on the site where Hindu zealots had demolished the 17th century Babri Mosque.

Agha adds that the new reality is a young, forward-looking generation that has grown up in the intervening period and has no interest in righting the wrongs of history. More over the current hard line stance of BJP leaders while in opposition is quite opposed to the reconciliatory tone adopted by Vajpayee when in power.

BJP leaders termed the India-Pakistan joint statement issued at Sharm-el-Sheikh an “unfortunate and shameful document” of the UPA government’s failure on issues pertaining to diplomacy, statesmanship, and national interest, believed to have transpired under pressure from the United States. This hard-line stance is perhaps driving away Hindu voters more interested in the potential they see in an economically burgeoning country.
At present some share the view that the BJP, faced as it is with several crises, including one over leadership following the retirement of the aging Vajpayee, seems ill-prepared to match the Congress party which took care to nurture its image as a secular one, standing for all people regardless of caste, religion or ethnicity.

Questions for Discussion:

• When considering BJP’s traditional politics over the years it would seem that the leader ship of the party, when in opposition, tows a more hard-line stance as compared to a relatively conciliatory one when in power. In your opinion do you think this sort of political behavior is generally observable in competitive politics or is the BJP case an exception rather then the rule?

• The current unfolding scenario on the Indian political scene indicates loyalties shifting away from the BJP in the Indian society. To what extent could this be attributed to:
  § Shifting priorities where interest based politics takes precedence over traditional ideologies,
  § Global exposure transpiring into evolving ideologies,
  § Or international pressures shaping the political arena?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.