Thursday, August 27, 2009

Microscopic Analysis- Week # 78; Dated 5th July- 31st July; Zone 1-Asia

Elections in the Fertile Crescent:

Lebanon general elections 2009:
International and domestic election observers on Monday congratulated Lebanon on the peaceful holding of democratic elections, but noted the need for additional political reform.
Despite a collection of electoral law violations, Sunday's vote, which saw Lebanon's ruling alliance named March 14 retain power, was widely seen as a success given the country's heightened political tensions and a high election day turnout.

Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, has been tasked by President Michel Sleiman with forming a new government after his Western-backed coalition won the June 7 parliamentary poll. But his efforts to form a government have been hampered as rival politicians’ battle over the allocation of cabinet portfolios.

In spite of violations, the international and domestic missions each said the election confirmed Lebanon's commitment to democracy and transparency.[1]
Representatives of Hizbullah, Amal and the Future Movement, the three leading Muslim parties, held talks on July 23rd in order to boost reconciliation efforts among Lebanese factions and ensure security and stability in the capital.

Discussion Questions:

Ø Though Hizbullah is not conventionally a parliamentary party, but could the manner in which it has accepted defeat possibly suggest a new trend on how militant parties may join the main stream as a consequence of participation in electoral politics? Could this be a genuine main streaming or just a tactical step on Hizbullah’s part?

Kurdish Elections 2009:

Masud Barzani was reelected as Kurdish President: the polls, the first time Iraqi Kurds elected a president directly, went off on July 25 without major disruptions. The turn out was claimed to be close to 80% by the electoral officials.

Kurdish Regional Government KRG was established in 1992 in which PUK and KDP being the two major parties had a power sharing arrangement which ultimately ended in a dead lock. By 1994 at the brink of civil war with both the parties seeking control through politically loyal militias each party appealed to powerful neighbors, the PUK to Iran and the KDP to Saddam Hussein, for assistance in putting down the military wing of the other. A partition developed and power devolved to regional power bases.

Next election was held in 2005 and reconciliation between the two parties came in the form of the Unification agreement in Jan 2006. In Dec 2006 Nawsirwan Mustafa, former Deputy General Secretary of the PUK, as part of a self styled ‘reform wing’, resigned his position, protesting the lack of political transparency , concentration of power and corrupt office holders, essentially a ‘quasi-feudal’ fashion of rule. He created a Wisha Company, a new political platform in the form of newspapers, websites and radio and television networks. With the Change list participating independently in the elections of 2009, the KDP and the PUK joint forces to run on a single list called the ‘Kurdistan List’, a move widely perceived as an attempt to maintain their duopoly in the current system.

The reform minded opposition movement, Change, took a surprising 24% of the parliamentary vote, but claimed of fraud and aggression from the region’s ruling two party alliances. Barzani’s Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and Iraqi president Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) took 57% of the parliamentary vote.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is expected soon to visit Kurdistan, and Talabani stated that they would “tackle problems together”. In what may be an olive branch between the two leaders who barely speak, reported the state al-Iraqiya TV, Maliki called Barzani to congratulate him on his poll win. A basic issue of contention is the latter’s assertion of a resolution of outstanding disputes by sticking to Iraq’s constitution which calls for a census and referendum in Kirkuk. This however is a solution that is shunned by Baghdad and seen as destabilizing by the United Nations.

Discussion Questions
Ø What trend does the recent election reflect? Could it be secessionist, a confederation, a federal solution or continued paralysis and non resolution of competing perspectives on how to live together?

Ø As a widely participated in competitive election in a long time, as well as the credible presence of political opposition, might the ice have been broken in terms of a historic shift towards a democratic trend?

Ø Could the old duopoly’s weakening in the latest elections make it harder for the Kurds to get closer to independence and the ultimate bid to seek sovereignty?

Topic’s for discussion:
§ The path towards functional democracy seems promising in these states; however given the turmoil in the region, is it too soon to expect political maturity from the nascent system?

§ To what extent is the participatory nature of the system viable and to what degree has the political process penetrated the society?

§ What potential do these events deem towards regional reconciliation and political peace, with in borders as well as beyond borders?
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

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