Friday, October 16, 2009

Zone 1- Micro Analysis: Missile Defence in the Middle East- America’s revamped plans. Week # 87, Dated 17th Sept-2nd Oct. 09’

In a radical revision of policy President Barack Obama has announced aborting missile defenses in Eastern Europe, originally being developed under the pretext of protection of the alleged missile threat from Iran, and possibly even North Korea.

The former Bush administration actively pushed the project with intentions to deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic by 2013; this was a program heavily invested in but lacked confidence in its projected functionality. However this policy antagonized Moscow which feared the shield would ultimately erode its own strategic nuclear deterrent.

Defence Secretary Robert Gates opined that owning to the great strides in missile defence and particularly the ability to counter short-and-medium-range missiles, the US has proven capabilities to intercept ballistic missiles with land-and-sea-based interceptors supported by much-improved sensors. These developments have propelled the deployment of a distributive sensor network through Naval Carriers patrolling the South Seas. A changed assessment of Iranian capabilities regarding its long-range missile programme by the US intelligence also contributed to the revamped plans.

Speaking of Obama's decision former Assistant Secretary of Defense explained that the current U.S. administration's plan focuses on what Iran actually does have i.e. short and medium range missiles that can reach southern Europe. The new plan might include deploying an X-band radar, a single directional device meant for detection, which may further assuage Russian concerns. This speculation has put the spotlight on Azerbaijan as a potential site, which borders Iran as well.

With the program scrapped, it opens the way for Russia, considered a major Iranian ally, to join with the United States in taking a harder line towards the country. This is being considered by analysts as yet another strategic move to isolate Iran and deter its aspirations for pursuing its alleged nuclear ambitions.

While in Eastern Europe, Poland and the Czech Republic, the original partner states, had based much of their future security policy on getting the missile defenses from the United States. The countries share deep concerns of a future military threat from the east- namely, Russia- and the local administrations had pursued the programs despite its lack of popularity at the domestic front.

However analysts are of the view that this new approach is more pragmatic and takes Russia onboard for greater co-operation on sanctions against possible new comers in the nuclear nations, Iran and North Korea; or on the broader agenda of restricting and regulating nuclear weapons worldwide and establishing a consensual (critiques would say hegemonic) global regulatory regime.


Discussion Questions:


· Do you think that America, with its revised defence program radically changing the tone towards Russia, has miscalculated the reactions of its East European allies?

· Would a united American and Russian front against Iran fare better in yielding diplomatic pressures on the country?



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