Zone 1- Micro Analysis- UK Summit on Afghanistan

Week #104 – Dated 23rd to 29th January 2010

One-day international conference in London
January 28th, 2010

The London Conference on Afghanistan was held last month on the 28th of January, 2010. It was largely perceived as an opportunity for European leaders to showcase their civilian and foreign aid contributions to Afghanistan, convincing a highly skeptical public of the functionality of their Afghan policy and continued troop contributions. The Conference also marks a phase commencing plans for the transition of power, reconciliation and reintegration in the war ravaged nation. According to Gen Stanley McChrystal: "We're here to give time and space to the Afghan people to build a nation"

The conference was attended by regional leaders and representatives of the US led coalition. Iran however was missing from the meetings, reportedly because of its stance that the summit was primarily still aimed at increasing military action in the region. Critics too have pointed out the conspicuous lack of a time table despite ambitious targets for rapidly expanding the Afghan National Army and the police force. Since the American review of its afghan strategy under the Obama regime, a number of international interactions have been underway focusing on a way forward for the destabilized region.

Last year on June 11-12 an international conference entitled, "Afghanistan, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Eurasian Security and Geopolitics," took place in Kyrgyzstan. It focused on proposed participation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in an Afghani crisis resolution and future development.

More recently, leading up to the London summit a one day regional summit was held in Turkey on the 25th of January 2010. The summit was the fourth in a series of high level meetings between the three nations and primarily focused on economic and security issues pertinent to regional stability. The summit was later extended to another cooperation initiative called the ‘Summit of Friendship and Cooperation in the Heart of Asia’. High level officials from China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Iran were in attendance; however India was excluded from the proceedings in lieu of Pakistan’s reservations.

At an earlier date Ministerial level talks were also held in Islamabad on January 16, 2010 where Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan affirmed their trilateral cooperation as a key to peace and stability in Afghanistan, while proclaiming that any regional arrangement for resolving the Afghan conflict should co-opt only immediate neighbors of the war-ravaged country.

Among the regional stake holders Iran’s reserved stance towards the international summit and its refusal to participate has been attributed to the view that the event aimed at “focusing on more military action rather than exploring the real roots of the problem.” British Foreign Secretary and conference chairman David Miliband criticized Tehran’s decision and termed it "inexplicable." However, according to one analyst Iran’s stance towards the London Conference reflects the concerns of regional stakeholders who are deeply concerned about the ambitious policy of the US to encourage India, marginalize Pakistan and use ‘moderate’ Taliban against ‘hostile regional players’ in Asia.

Meanwhile on the Indian front the national debate has been divided regarding the extent of Indian involvement in Afghanistan. One segment is of the view (reflected in the words of C. Raja in the Indian Express)that following India’s great run in Afghanistan in Phase One (2001 till until recently), stasis has gripped India’s security policy in recent months and maneuvering by the Pakistan army now threaten to ‘marginalize Delhi in Phase Two.’ Contrary to this view another analyst in the Indian daily ‘The Hindu’ opined that the London summit has exposed India’s ‘flawed Afghan policy’. According to him in 1997-98 Delhi perhaps made a ‘strategic mistake’ by regarding Afghanistan as a ‘theatre of India-Pakistan rivalry’. Citing Pakistan’s strategic location, he deems Afghanistan’s priority ties with it a logical eventuality.

With the recent developments Pakistan has come forth as a pivotal player, openly asserting its reservations regarding Indian involvement in post war Afghanistan. Pakistan, according to Foreign Minister Qureshi, is of the opinion that the existing mechanisms in place are ‘adequate and working well’, hence there is ‘no need for new regional architecture’. He added that as India has no border with Afghanistan, it does not fit into the scheme, accept perhaps in assisting development. In the recent NATO Military conference in Brussels, COAS General Kiyani too stressed an openly India centric National stance while voicing Pakistan’s willingness to reconsider and renounce its traditional understanding of ‘Strategic Depth’ in the region. The general said “if Afghanistan is peaceful, stable and friendly, we have our strategic depth because our western border is secure.”

According to official sources the aim of the conference, co-hosted by the UK, UN and Afghanistan, was to agree on a clear international plan for the next 18 months in Afghanistan and move forward towards an ultimate transition of power to established local authorities. Where it may have defined the parameters of success and failure and chalked out a co-operative path, critics have still voiced concerns regarding the efficacy of the new strategy in the face of ebbing western optimism. The concluding communiqué declared the conference as a “decisive step towards greater Afghan leadership to secure, stabilize and develop Afghanistan,” an assertion that only time will test.

Bibliography/Related Links:
http://csis.org/publication/regaining-european-foreign-policy-visibility-and-london-conference-afghanistan
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Afghan-Neighbors-Key-Players-Prep-For-London-Conference-82707607.html
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2010/01/2010128165738518879.html
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1957537,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8480368.stm
http://www.rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/derrick/2010/01/london-conference-afghanistan-rebranding-unpopular-war
http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page22313
http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page22312
http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/33129
http://beta.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article100379.ece?homepage=true February 4, 2010
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C01%5C29%5Cstory_29-1-2010_pg7_37
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=222988
http://www.hindustantimes.com/rssfeed/europe/India-a-mute-spectator-at-Afghanistan-summit/Article1-503209.aspx
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/towards-a-grand-summit/573832/
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100202_pakistan_emergence_new_approach_afghanistan
http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/20100128_brief_communique_speaks_withdrawal_afghanistan
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15409496
http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2399
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/04-tripartite-meeting-qs-08
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2010/01/mil-100116-irna01.htm
http://beta.thehindu.com/news/international/article81320.ece
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-199676-turkey-afghanistan-pakistan-summit-focuses-on-stability.html
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/96403/presidents-of-turkey-afghanistan-and-pakistan-meet-.html
http://theglobalrealm.com/2010/02/08/pakistans-military-sets-afghan-terms
http://www.nato.int/ims/news/2010/n100127e.html
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_55016.htm?selectedLocale=en
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/TheLondonConferenceItistimeforIndiatoreassessitsAfghanPolicy_agupta_010210

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