BPM- Asia Zone: Domestic Politics

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Zone 1- Micro Analysis'Turkey’s Civil Military Relations-

Week #101 – Dated 1st -8th January 2010

“Due to our old habits, we have been facing difficulties in adapting ourselves to today’s laws,” President Abdullah Gül said recently upon questions over the ongoing search being conducted by a civilian judge at a military headquarters, for the first time in Turkish history. The search is in connection with an investigation into an alleged assassination plot

against Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç in mid-December. In the wake of this most recent assassination scandal Turkey's top general said last week that reports of a military plot to undermine the government were part of a smear campaign to divide the armed forces and pledged he would never tolerate coup activities.
The controversy has raised tensions between the military and the AK Party, which has roots in political Islam but also embraces center-right and nationalist forces. In 2001 the AKP was formed under the leadership of Erdogan as a split from the main Islamist party and the "old guard." Along with sharp shifts within the Turkish bourgeoisie in general, the wing with Islamist sympathies had also changed profoundly. The AKP distanced itself from the traditional line of the Turkish Islamist movement known as the "national view" doctrine and adopted a very friendly approach to the West and global finance capital and its policies are reflective of any right-wing party in Turkey.
Since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the modern secular Republic of Turkey in 1923, the Turkish military has perceived itself as the guardian of Kemalism, the official state ideology. The Turkish Armed Forces TAF still maintain an important degree of influence over politics and the decision making process regarding issues related to national security, albeit with a decrease in the past decades, via the National Security Council.
The military has had a record of intervening in politics. In 1997 the Turkish military presented an ultimatum to the Islamist-dominated coalition government ultimately dislodging the ruling regime. This was the fourth military intervention in Turkey since the end of the Second World War. The Turkish military had previously carried out coups in 1960, 1971 and 1980. Where the 1960 and 1971 military coups had institutional reform as their objective, the 1980 action was undertaken to shore up the order created by the earlier interventions. In the course of the military intervention in 1997, General Cevik Bir, the deputy chief of general staff, cynically declared that the aim of the army "was to readjust the balance of democracy."
During the last two decades many bourgeois commentators, including certain sections of the so-called "left," have claimed there is no longer any possibility of a major military intervention in Turkey—either overtly or covertly. Analysts however are divided on this issue. The

variables dominating the current political arena are multifarious and unprecedented, Turkey’s bid for the EU being a vital point of reference here.
Scandals, controversies and speculations have been at their zenith this past year and so far there is no indication that the tide might ebb. In the last couple of years documents surfaced in the media that indicated that some former commanders led by the commander of the gendarmerie, General Sener Aydin, had planned two separate military coups in 2003 and 2004 under the codenames Sarikiz (Daisy) and Ayisigi (Moonlight). These however never manifested.
The ‘threat’ of renewed action by the Turkish military has also come to light in the high-profile court case and investigation into a conspiracy known as Ergenekon, in which a clandestine ultra-nationalist group is charged with attempting to create a chaotic political environment with the aim of triggering a direct military intervention.
Referred to as the concept of ‘Deep state’ it is believed to be a group of influential anti-democratic coalitions within the Turkish political system, composed of high-level elements within the intelligence services, Turkish military, security, judiciary, and mafia. The notion of deep state is similar to that of a "state within the state" and in the Turkish case seems to be a social phenomenon, seemingly based on a confluence of fact and conspiracy theories. It is a term widely used to describe renegade members of the security forces said to act outside the law in what they judge to be Turkey's best interests.
The police investigation into Ergenekon was launched in June 2007 after the discovery of stacked away explosives said to be of the same make used by the military. There are also indications that the investigation has managed to link Ergenekon with the two failed military coup attempts devised by military commanders.
On June 12 2009, the liberal left Taraf daily published an unclassified document outlining another covert operation titled "Action Plan against Reactionary Forces" in the context of the Ergenekon case. The alleged action plan was for the military to combat the “reactionary activities” against secularism prepared by senior staff Colonel Dursun Cicek and defined the ruling AKP and the Gulen movement as threats to the secular order in Turkey. The plan outlined various measures to undermine public support for the AKP and advocated a

conspiracy against the Gulen movement to present it as an armed criminal group that could be construed as a terrorist organization. Later a report prepared by three experts at the Istanbul Council of Forensic Medicine (ATK) showed that the signature on the original copy belonged to Colonel Cicek, hence dispelling allegations of it being a forgery. However a segment of military officers are reportedly convinced that this is not a plot against the AKP government conducted by the armed forces but rather the reverse.
The government is also investigating another manifestation of the alleged plot by Naval officers under the name ‘Operation Cage Action Plan’ aiming to attack non-Muslim minorities to discredit the ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party The alleged plan, one of several reported in Turkish media, could add to strains between the secularist military and the government. The alleged "Cage Operation Action Plan" involved bomb attacks, kidnappings and assassinations against non-Muslims, which would then be blamed on Islamists. Turkish prosecutors are also currently investigating a separate alleged plot that implicates retired and serving military officers to overthrow the AK Party of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.
According to one analyst under the conditions of a global financial and economic meltdown, Turkish society today faces a new acute crisis and conditions of profound instability. Given the extreme divisions and loss of

credibility and influence on the part of the "secularist" parties—the once mighty "centre-right" parties have no representation in parliament at the moment—only one force is capable of providing a violent corrective to the AKP government: ‘the Turkish military’.
However some analysts observe that the recent uproar has underlined the waning influence of the generals as the Muslim country has pushed liberal reforms aimed at winning membership of the European Union. "The era when the military in Turkey could take charge of the country is over and it has become more answerable to the public," says Hugh Pope, an author, "There is a readjustment under way in the civilian-military relationship in Turkey,”. §
Discussion Question:
¨ Which camp of debate are you more inclined towards, those who believe that another Military intervention is eminent in Turkey, or those who believe the Civil Military paradigm has evolved into one that would not tolerate such intervention?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
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Thursday, October 15, 2009

Zone 1-Asia- Telescopic Analysis: Credible Democracy in Asia- A process of dialogue. W # 87, Dated 25th Sept- 3rd Oct, 09'

Democratic maturity is a goal for many Asian nations with evolving systems of representation and governance. The presence of multiple parties and open channels of dialogue are considered to be vital for the integrity of this system.
In this week’s reports news items from Nepal depict a continued struggle to achieve a workable coalition government. A media dialogue in Azerbaijan regarding the instigation of dialogue hints at promising progress; also in Kyrgyzstan though the signs of reciprocation from the leadership have not yet surfaced, the opposition’s willingness to come to the table is being lauded.

NEPAL- Political Deadlock
Nepali politics is facing a serious deadlock in the wake of the election of Constituent Assembly (CA) which produced a fractured mandate. Neither CPN (Maoist) nor the rest of the parties have either absolute majority of 301 seats to form a one-party government.
The CPN (Maoist) has scored 220 seats out of 575 seats in the 601-member CA and has become the largest party in the country. However Nepali Congress, CPN-UML

and Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum have set several pre-conditions for their support to a Maoist led government. These include changing the interim constitution seeking only a simple majority for impeachment proceedings, a ceremonial president with the power to declare emergency and have the control of the army, demilitarizing and disbanding the Maoist-affiliated Young Communist League etc.
The CPN (Maoist) has opposed these demands proclaiming conspiracy guided by foreign forces, hence the ensuing deadlock.

However all parties have expressed their desire to work towards a solution. Despite ongoing street protests, a continued series of talks and negotiations have paved a way towards a credible cooperative process.
In a latest development a crucial meeting of the ruling CPN-UML-led alliance and the Nepal Maoists in Katmandu on 13th Oct. failed to break the political impasse. The reinstatement of a deposed army chief under the previous executive, in what the opposition claims is an issue of ‘civilian supremacy’ is at the crux of the present stalemate. However despite the disrupted functioning of the parliament and stalled peace process, the commitment towards dialogue still holds strong and a nation wide awakened political consciousness demonstrates robust strides towards democratic maturity.

AZERBAIJAN- Invitation for Dialogue:
Over the past years, Azerbaijan's various fractious opposition parties have failed time and again to join forces to pose a strong, united, and cohesive alternative to the ruling Yeni Azerbaycan Party. The opposition suffered successive crushing defeats in the parliamentary elections of

1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008.
The last time, a political dialogue between the authorities and the opposition was organized through the mediation of the OSCE in the run-up to parliamentary elections in 2005. After the 2008 presidential election, its continuation was deemed necessary.

Where the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP) repeatedly claims it is ready for dialogue with the opposition on national issues, the opposition has so far considered its efforts as marginal. Where an MP from the Ruling party proclaims that, “Unfortunately, our counterparts understand a dialogue only as a seating face to face. A dialogue is a culture of listening to one-another and recognition of a right openly to publicize one-another’s positions,”; the Chairman of the opposition Great Establishment Party (GEP) countered that “Currently, realization of the government-opposition dialogue is not convincing in Azerbaijan. There is not any obstacle in the opposition to hold a dialogue. However, the current government is not interested in civil development of these relations,”.
Where critics term it as mere hedging on part of the ruling party, still the very existence of this dialogue in the public arena depicts the potential for credible engagement on the political front.

KYRGYZ opposition ready to negotiate with President
Kyrgyz opposition has voiced its consent to sit down at negotiating table with the president of the country, shared Azimbek Beknazarov, one of the leaders of the Kyrgyzstan’s Joint People’s Movement. Kyrgyz Opposition party has expressed its readiness to hold negoti

ations with the ruling regime after the release of its detained members. The Government however has denied receiving any written or oral suggestion by the Joint People’s Movement in that line.
“There will be no bargains with the authorities. We are for equitable negotiations and if the White House is really ready to listen to rational demands of the opposition, the meeting will take place,” the member of the movement said.
A nation widely believed to depict negative trends in democracy and political freedoms as well as endemic corruption, instigation of a credible political discussion is a vital step towards democratic integrity. Though the process of negotiation has not yet been installed, the opposition’s willingness to come to the table could be considered as a first step.

Discussion Questions:

· Are the attempts at dialogue amidst street protests and frequent walkouts just feeble attempts in chaotic nascent democracies, the failure of which perpetuates greater turmoil?

· In an environment where democracy is esteemed as an international benchmark, to what degree could the trends in domestic politics depict:
A) International pressures in an integrated world with higher stakes in the world community, or

B) A strategic shift in respective strategies of the involved participants for the sake of optimizing their political interests?

Related links/ Bibliography
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/127389
http://telegraphnepal.com/news_det.php?news_id=3476
http://avciya.az/eng/news/referendum/3043-topics-for-azerbaijani-government.html
http://avciya.az/eng/analitiks/1849-azerbaijani-ruling-and-opposition.html
http://avciya.az/eng/news/inthecountry/2761-no-problem-to-begin-discussions-with.html
http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1073561.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kg.html
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

BPM- Asia Zone

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Zone 1- Micro Analysis'Turkey’s Civil Military Relations-

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Zone 1-Asia- Telescopic Analysis: Credible Democracy in Asia- A process of dialogue. W # 87, Dated 25th Sept- 3rd Oct, 09'

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