Microscopic Analysis- Week # 80; Dated 9th Aug- 15th Aug; Zone 1-Asia

Religious Education in Kazakhstan; Religious Revival and Government Regulation:

In 2010 Kazakhstan will serve as Chair of the 56-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and thus has been under increased international scrutiny. Recently the government's efforts to amend the country's religion law threatened increased official control over Kazakhstan's highly diverse religious communities. According to available statistics Muslims make up 47 percent of the population, Russian Orthodox 44 percent, Protestant 2 percent and others 7 percent.

In late 2008, Kazakhstan's parliament passed highly restrictive amendments to the country's religion law. The amendments established more restrictive registration procedures; prohibited proselytism and the production of religious literature; prohibited groups from maintaining worship facilities open to the public; and significantly increased fines and penalties for violations of the law. On February 12, 2009, Kazakhstan's Constitutional Council declared the amendments unconstitutional. Nevertheless, some Kazakh officials reportedly still treat the overturned amendments as valid.

Until recently Religious instruction was not permitted in public schools, but enrollment in supplemental religious classes was allowed. This is however to be amended with last week’s announcement by the Science and Education Ministry, stating that Schools in the state will start teaching religion as a compulsory subject. The ministry announced that qualified teachers would be hired to teach "all religions and their history" in order to propagate religious tolerance at an early stage.

While Islamic revival in the Central Asian region has been on the rise, mosques and religious schools have mushroomed across the region. ‘Kazakhstan Today’ reported last week the opening of Medrese abu Hanif in Almaty, along the lines of similar institutes functional all over the country. The project under the auspices of the National Administration of Muslims in Kazakhstan (SAMK), duly registered by the state, is headed by the Chief Mufti. The organization exerts significant influence over the country's practice of Islam, including selecting imams and regulating the construction of mosques. The dominant organization reportedly exercises some pressure on the non aligned imams and congregations in a country where Muslims make up 47 percent of the population, Russian Orthodox 44 percent, Protestant 2 percent and others 7 percent.

School courses on religion are a thorny issue in the state part of the former Soviet Union where atheism was a state ideology and state regulation has steadily increased, amid protests by human rights activists. On the international level however the Kazakh government has organized events to showcase what it views as its record of official religious tolerance, having hosted three religious conferences ( in 2003, 2006, and 2009).

The issue of religious education seems to be an important theme across regions. While the Kazakh government aims at regulating religious education in its domain, it perhaps fears upsurge of civil society as in the case of the Nigerian Boko Haram (meaning ‘Western education is a sin’) which demands strict imposition of religious education and law in the country.

Tentative Discussion Questions:

Could the heightened regulation of religious activity in Kazakhstan be a result of government paranoia that may trigger more harm than good in the long run?

Is heightened religious revival, as is speculated in the case of the Nigerian Boko Harem, a result of religious revival or an outlet of emotions against corrupt and incompetent governments?

Could a secular Kazakh state effectively regulate, as a non partisan administrator, the nation’s ethnic and religious diversity?
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Microscopic Analysis- Week # 78; Dated 5th July- 31st July; Zone 1-Asia

Elections in the Fertile Crescent:

Lebanon general elections 2009:
International and domestic election observers on Monday congratulated Lebanon on the peaceful holding of democratic elections, but noted the need for additional political reform.
Despite a collection of electoral law violations, Sunday's vote, which saw Lebanon's ruling alliance named March 14 retain power, was widely seen as a success given the country's heightened political tensions and a high election day turnout.

Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, has been tasked by President Michel Sleiman with forming a new government after his Western-backed coalition won the June 7 parliamentary poll. But his efforts to form a government have been hampered as rival politicians’ battle over the allocation of cabinet portfolios.

In spite of violations, the international and domestic missions each said the election confirmed Lebanon's commitment to democracy and transparency.[1]
Representatives of Hizbullah, Amal and the Future Movement, the three leading Muslim parties, held talks on July 23rd in order to boost reconciliation efforts among Lebanese factions and ensure security and stability in the capital.

Discussion Questions:

Ø Though Hizbullah is not conventionally a parliamentary party, but could the manner in which it has accepted defeat possibly suggest a new trend on how militant parties may join the main stream as a consequence of participation in electoral politics? Could this be a genuine main streaming or just a tactical step on Hizbullah’s part?

Kurdish Elections 2009:

Masud Barzani was reelected as Kurdish President: the polls, the first time Iraqi Kurds elected a president directly, went off on July 25 without major disruptions. The turn out was claimed to be close to 80% by the electoral officials.

Kurdish Regional Government KRG was established in 1992 in which PUK and KDP being the two major parties had a power sharing arrangement which ultimately ended in a dead lock. By 1994 at the brink of civil war with both the parties seeking control through politically loyal militias each party appealed to powerful neighbors, the PUK to Iran and the KDP to Saddam Hussein, for assistance in putting down the military wing of the other. A partition developed and power devolved to regional power bases.

Next election was held in 2005 and reconciliation between the two parties came in the form of the Unification agreement in Jan 2006. In Dec 2006 Nawsirwan Mustafa, former Deputy General Secretary of the PUK, as part of a self styled ‘reform wing’, resigned his position, protesting the lack of political transparency , concentration of power and corrupt office holders, essentially a ‘quasi-feudal’ fashion of rule. He created a Wisha Company, a new political platform in the form of newspapers, websites and radio and television networks. With the Change list participating independently in the elections of 2009, the KDP and the PUK joint forces to run on a single list called the ‘Kurdistan List’, a move widely perceived as an attempt to maintain their duopoly in the current system.

The reform minded opposition movement, Change, took a surprising 24% of the parliamentary vote, but claimed of fraud and aggression from the region’s ruling two party alliances. Barzani’s Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and Iraqi president Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) took 57% of the parliamentary vote.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is expected soon to visit Kurdistan, and Talabani stated that they would “tackle problems together”. In what may be an olive branch between the two leaders who barely speak, reported the state al-Iraqiya TV, Maliki called Barzani to congratulate him on his poll win. A basic issue of contention is the latter’s assertion of a resolution of outstanding disputes by sticking to Iraq’s constitution which calls for a census and referendum in Kirkuk. This however is a solution that is shunned by Baghdad and seen as destabilizing by the United Nations.

Discussion Questions
Ø What trend does the recent election reflect? Could it be secessionist, a confederation, a federal solution or continued paralysis and non resolution of competing perspectives on how to live together?

Ø As a widely participated in competitive election in a long time, as well as the credible presence of political opposition, might the ice have been broken in terms of a historic shift towards a democratic trend?

Ø Could the old duopoly’s weakening in the latest elections make it harder for the Kurds to get closer to independence and the ultimate bid to seek sovereignty?

Topic’s for discussion:
§ The path towards functional democracy seems promising in these states; however given the turmoil in the region, is it too soon to expect political maturity from the nascent system?

§ To what extent is the participatory nature of the system viable and to what degree has the political process penetrated the society?

§ What potential do these events deem towards regional reconciliation and political peace, with in borders as well as beyond borders?

[1] http://www.elections.gov.lb/news/International-observers-praise-Lebanon-s--peaceful.aspx

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Telescopic Analysis- Week # 78; Dated 5th July- 31st July; Zone 1-Asia

Telescopic Analysis
Social reform and Human Rights: A heightened awareness of social issues, a shift in societal trends or triggered by international pressures/influence?

The weekly analysis report for global sampling in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation council) showed some activity at the national level on the human rights front. In Kuwait for example violations against the disabled were brought under investigation by the Kuwait Lawyers' Association's (KLA) Human Rights Department. This was triggered by a large number of complaints received from disabled citizens, as well as from the Kuwait Society for the Handicapped (KSH). The issue under consideration was the nature of legal action to be taken against anyone found to be acting illegally in their treatment of disabled individuals. The official giving the statement firmly rejected any attempts to connect working for human rights with politics, saying that the KLA is an independent, nonpartisan body which appreciates all the efforts made by the government and parliament to enforce the laws introduced regarding this issue.

In the mean time Qatar's National Human Rights Committee (NHRC) wants the law protecting women's rights to be reviewed. Their agenda included seeking citizenship for the offspring of Qatari women married to foreigners and active participation of women in politics with an affirmation to publish literature aimed at making people aware of the fundamental rights of women and workers.

This activity on the human rights front comes in an environment of international integration and global influence. Al Jisr project aimed at Public Diplomacy and Outreach devoted to the European Union and EU-GCC Relations notes that human rights forms an integral part of the EU’s Free Trade Area negotiations. The Political Reform in the GCC and its Implications for EU Policy are thus under scrutiny.

At the same time reports of abuse meted out to foreign workers, especially towards house maids in the gulf nations has been repeatedly highlighted in the media. Also the conditions of expatriates working in the gulf have been highlighted while the recruitment process has been criticized for heightening the intensity of exploitation.

Discussion Questions:

§ To what extent is the human rights front in the GCC being driven by a heightened awareness of societal issues in the national psyche? Does it depict a shift in societal trends and cultural prerogatives?

§ What degree of influence or pressure does the international community pose in this regard?

§ Is not the difference in efforts made towards betterment of citizens vs. foreign expatriate workers indicative of double standards in the principles driving national campaigns?

Ø Are people turning to law (as passed by legislatures in the given countries) as opposed to political agitation because the channels for political organization are restricted, or is there greater legitimacy of law (Shariah) in the gulf countries and it is harder to contest the law by rulers?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Micro Analysis,Asia: Is the Indian BJP Holding on too Tightly to the Hindutva Ideology: Week # 79

Bharatiya Janata Party president Rajnath Singh recently declared that there was no question of the party compromising on “Hindutva ideology” or its “original political thinking” because it lost the recent Lok Sabha elections. This stance was directed against the views of some political analysts who said the BJP should rethink its ideology and political thinking in the wake of the parliamentary poll debacle.

During the 1980s and 1990s the campaign to demolish Babri Masjid had caught the imagination of the Hindu middle classes proving instrumental in forging the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). According to Qamar Agha, a well-known academic and political commentator, another reason for BJP’s former success was due to the all-round respect Vajpayee commanded and his readiness to compromise with allies on such contentious issues as the building of a temple dedicated to the deity Rama on the site where Hindu zealots had demolished the 17th century Babri Mosque.

Agha adds that the new reality is a young, forward-looking generation that has grown up in the intervening period and has no interest in righting the wrongs of history. More over the current hard line stance of BJP leaders while in opposition is quite opposed to the reconciliatory tone adopted by Vajpayee when in power.

BJP leaders termed the India-Pakistan joint statement issued at Sharm-el-Sheikh an “unfortunate and shameful document” of the UPA government’s failure on issues pertaining to diplomacy, statesmanship, and national interest, believed to have transpired under pressure from the United States. This hard-line stance is perhaps driving away Hindu voters more interested in the potential they see in an economically burgeoning country.
At present some share the view that the BJP, faced as it is with several crises, including one over leadership following the retirement of the aging Vajpayee, seems ill-prepared to match the Congress party which took care to nurture its image as a secular one, standing for all people regardless of caste, religion or ethnicity.

Questions for Discussion:

• When considering BJP’s traditional politics over the years it would seem that the leader ship of the party, when in opposition, tows a more hard-line stance as compared to a relatively conciliatory one when in power. In your opinion do you think this sort of political behavior is generally observable in competitive politics or is the BJP case an exception rather then the rule?

• The current unfolding scenario on the Indian political scene indicates loyalties shifting away from the BJP in the Indian society. To what extent could this be attributed to:
  § Shifting priorities where interest based politics takes precedence over traditional ideologies,
  § Global exposure transpiring into evolving ideologies,
  § Or international pressures shaping the political arena?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Telescopic Analysis- Asia; Diplomatic Resolution of Disputes:Week # 79

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  Diplomatic overtures are in evidence this week for resolving problems of insurgency in the Asia region. Efforts are under way to resume talks with insurgent groups in the Philippines as well as Turkey. Though recent past does not give many exmples where such disputes got resolved through talks, the political circles are still hopeful for amiable solutions seeking stability in the region.
  
  At the geo-strategic front too some similar kind of disputes between various countries of the Asian region can be observed; these include the Turkey-Greece dispute over Cyprus, the Thai-Cambodian dispute, and the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict. The involvement of all relevant parties has been observed, in an effort to hold talks for the resolution of these issues.
  Philipines- Left Wing Insurgency
  Manila seems confident to resume peace talks with leftist rebels this month to end the Philippines' four-decade-old insurgency. Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Avelino Razon said the Norway-brokered talks between the government and the National Democratic Front (NDF), the political wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), is set to start in the last week of August. The peace talks collapsed in 2005 after the armed group was blacklisted by the European Union and the United States as a foreign terrorist organization. It blamed Manila for not trying hard to get it off the shame list. The Philippine government proclaims to be committed to revive long-stalled peace talks aimed at ending a bloody 40-year rebellion.
  Turkey- Kurdish Separatism
  Also on the Asian front in a strong show of determination to seek a settlement on the long-standing Kurdish question, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently held a meeting with representatives from the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP). The meeting was a first of its kind, as the prime minister previously declined to meet with DTP officials, because of the party's refusal to term the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) a terrorist organization. Observers believe that the meeting will accelerate efforts to shape a government plan to solve the decades-old Kurdish problem.
  Greece- Cyprus Issue
  Mean while, the first round of the Cyprus talks was completed with the 40th meeting between President Mehmet Ali Talat of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and Greek Cypriot leader Demetris Christofias at the buffer zone on August 6, 2009. The second round is due to begin on September 3, 2009.
  Thailand- Cambodia Conflict
  The Foreign ministers from Cambodia and Thailand too resumed joint policy talks for the first time in three years last week after months of fractious relations over a border temple dispute. Cambodia and Thailand have been at loggerheads over the Khmer ruins for decades. Although the World Court ruled in 1962 that the temple belonged to Cambodia, its most accessible entrance is in northeastern Thailand. Tensions have also arisen over disputed waters where both countries have granted oil and gas exploration rights to private companies.
  Azerbaijan: Nagorno-Karabagh Dispute
  Being mediated by international parties, primarily with the involvement of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia seem to be on a promising path. Most recently Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev met in Russia in a Moscow-brokered attempt to solve one of the most bitter disputes in the region, a legacy of the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.
  
  Questions for Discussion:·

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  In an environment where solutions are being sought through negotiations and diplomatic channels, to what degree could it be a result of:

o A new global culture, as an essential shift in the international approach to problems, or
o International pressures in an integrated world with higher stakes in the world community, or
o A strategic shift in respective policies of the involved governments for the sake of optimizing their national interests?

• Could the potential for success in this softer approach be gauged; is it sustainable for seeking lasting solutions to regional conflicts?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.