Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 88, Dated 3rd -9th Oct. 09’

SOUTH ASIA
Political Front:
Bengali PM Sheikh Haseena has asked the opposition parties to participate in Parliament by giving constructive feedback over potent national issues. In Nepal, the Unified CPN (Maoist) has decided to continue with their nationwide protest programmes until the House discusses the President's move on the army chief row. Meanwhile a 3-days Democracy Conference has recently begun in Bhutan.
In India at the national front the BJP has finally conceded re evaluation of its personality based party politics in the wake of its elections debacle. All the while PM Man Mohan Singh has announced to delegate more powers to Punchayet System in rural India. In the meanwhile the Maoist threat continues to be a potent security concern.
Geo-strategic Front:
Bangladesh has decided to seek resolution of its maritime disputes with India and Myanmar in an international tribunal through arbitration. Meanwhile Bangladesh has also expressed keenness to include Nepal and Bhutan in establishing the transit with India. President of Maldives has recently paid a successful visit to UK.
India’s Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor, has begun a 3-day visit to military-ruled Burma in a bid to boost military cooperation with the Southeast Asian nation. India has also decided to enhance security along the Chinese border. In the meanwhile India has refused to start back door diplomacy to resume talks with Pakistan, while accusing the nation for recent Indian embassy attacks in Kabul. India has refused to accept OIC’s appointment of a special envoy for Kashmir.
Social Front:
Social activists have expressed serious concern regarding widespread use of physical punishment against children in Bangladesh where a survey conducted by the Children's Opinion Poll 2008 revealed 91% children in Bangladesh reportedly fall victims to corporal punishment in school while 74% at home. A low intensity earthquake measuring 4.9 on the Richter scale occurred in the Myanmar-India border region but no casualty or damage was reported.
Human trafficking from India to Middle Eastern countries has emerged as potent social issue. Meanwhile increasing number of cancer patients and the growing suicide rate among Indian Middle class is a major source of concern for the government. also the southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu have been badly damaged by floods.
Economic Front:
The government of Bangladesh has opened the country's 17th land port in Feni district hoping to boost export to seven northeast Indian states. Colombo Stock Exchange in Sri Lanka is paving the way for economic growth. Myanmar has enhanced cooperation with neighboring Bangladesh for the establishment of direct banking system between the two countries in a bid to facilitate bilateral trade. Economists are optimistic that India would be successful in maintaining above 6% growth rate in year 2010. Meanwhile the 2009 Human Development Report (HDR) claims that migrations to the Gulf countries have improved the conditions of poor classes of India.

EAST ASIA
Political Front:
Controversial tycoon Aburizal Bakrie has been elected to lead Indonesia's Golkar party and has announced to back the ruling regime. While in Malaysia, popularity of PM Najeeb seems to be declining according to recent surveys. The Merdeka Centre research firm claimed that 56 % as opposed to 65% reported satisfaction at the premier’s performance. Meanwhile UMNO has started revising the party’s constitution. Moving towards Philippines; President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has grown more unpopular over the past three months and nearly two out of three people disapprove of her performance.
Geo-strategic Front:
Malaysia’s security forces have been placed on alert following a threat by an Indonesian nationalist group which claimed plans to launch a massive attack.
Social Front:
The National Family Planning Coordinating Board of Indonesia (BKKBN) has emphasized on the need to adopt proper mechanism to control chances of demographic imbalances caused by rapid population growth. In Vietnam, the death toll from Typhoon Ketsana has jumped to 162 with hundreds more injured. Also the United Nations has launched an appeal for 74 million U.S. dollars to help 1 million flood-stricken people in the Philippines for the next six months.
Economic Front:
The Asian Development Bank has announced to lend US$500 million (S$699.4 million) to Indonesia in order to revive its sluggish economy. Meanwhile Indonesia has been making efforts to enhance trade with China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand following plans to set up Free Trade Area (FTA) pacts with these countries under the ASEAN agreement. Malaysia has made a plan to set up the ASEAN Security and Defence Industry Council (ASDIC) aiming at developing the region into a major producer and exporter of defence equipment. India and Thailand have made plan to further expand their FTA pact beyond goods to new areas of services and investments. Britain has agreed to increase its investment in Vietnam to $3 billion in the near future.

CENTRAL ASIA
Political Front:
Nomination of candidates for Azerbaijan's municipal elections began with the announcement of a finalized timetable for municipal elections scheduled for 23rd Dec. Meanwhile six people including two Lebanese; have been found guilty of terrorism and sentenced to long jail terms in Baku, Azerbaijan's capital. In the meanwhile the Kyrgyz president is planning large-scale state reforms in the near future. Tajikistan’s upper chamber of parliament has unanimously passed a new law removing Russian as the official language. Turkmen president reprimanded the vice Prime Minister for unsatisfactory performance of duties. In the meanwhile the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has denied the death of their leader, Tahir Uldashevas, as a result of missile strike reported on the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan on August 27.
Geo-strategic Front:
Talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region have entered a final phase. Besides this, Azerbaijan has been making efforts to enhance military and political ties with Kazakhstan and Pakistan. Meanwhile Azerbaijan has declared Russian and US readiness to discuss joint use of Gabala radar station, to be a positive move. The Kazakhstan government has agreed to allow French military personnel and equipment to transit through the state to Afghanistan. Both countries have also agreed to launch joint satellites. Meanwhile thousands of troops from Russia and four other ex-Soviet nations began military exercises in southern Kazakhstan. Spanish and French governments have urged Kyrgyzstan to prolong air force deals allowing them to use the Manas airbase for transit of troops and supplies to Afghanistan. Kyrgyz Minister of Foreign Affairs left his country for a working visit to the US. All the while Kyrgyz President and Russian Presidential Chief-of-Staff have started discussion on possible opening of a second Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan. Also Turkmenistan and Spain seem interested in boosting bilateral relations.
Social Front:
Growing number of AIDS’ Patients in Southern Azerbaijan is a serious concern for the government. According to the 2009 UN Human Development Report, Kyrgyzstan’s level of living has been ranked 120th in the world. Turkmenistan has barred Students from traveling to the U.S.-Linked schools. The Uzbek human rights activists have announced to launch a rally protesting child labor in cotton fields.
Economic/Energy Front:
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on joint development of feasibility study on Trans-Caspian project. All the while U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy has recently paid a visit to Azerbaijan in order to discuss successful development of energy cooperation. Azerbaijan has expressed its intention to increase its gas output to 40-45 billion cubic meters per year in the next ten years. French President Nicolas Sarkozy clinched oil, gas, and nuclear deals worth more than $6 billion with Kazakhstan, establishing France as a key investor in the resource-rich state. Eight months after Kazakhstan’s law on Islamic finance and banking was adopted, a handful of local and international Islamic institutions have been established in the country. Besides this Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have recently signed a water-energy deal. In the meantime Russia has granted Kyrgyzstan a large credit at the request of the United States.

GCC
GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL
Political Front:
Five Islamist legislators in Kuwait have recently introduced a bill calling for a total ban on dealing with Israel and proposing up to 10 years in jail for violators. Kuwaiti law already bans dealing with what it calls the "enemy" but does not make a specific reference to any state.
Geo-strategic Front:
The US Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman has assured GCC and other Arab countries in the region that their political and security concerns would never be ignored as a consequence of ongoing US-Iran talks. In the meantime Secretary General of GCC has strongly condemned Israeli violations against the Al-Aqsa mosque. In this regard an Islamic scholar Sheikh Yousuf al-Qaradawi has called on the Muslim world to stage peaceful marches on Friday. Saudi Arabian ambassador to Pakistan has termed bilateral relations of the nations as exceptional. In the meantime recent visit of Saudi King to Syria depicted a new direction for the two nations. All the while Foreign Minister of UAE has recently paid visit to Cuba seeking ways to boost ties.
Social Front:
Saudi King Abdullah has removed a top holy man who demanded that religious scholars should examine the curriculum at a new flagship mixed-gender university. 2009 UN Human Developing Index has placed Kuwait at top among Arab countries in terms of Human mobility and development.
Nuclear Energy Front:
The United Arab Emirates has expressed its ambition to have a nuclear reactor; in commercial operation in 2017 as part of a $ 40 billion atomic energy programme.
Economic Front:
The National Commercial Bank (NCB) has claimed that Saudi Arabia would experience growth, albeit slowly, with the government’s “massive investment expenditure” serving as the “key driver” in 2009. Despite lack of political determination for (economic) diversification, Kuwait still leads its Gulf peers in posting the largest surplus in the region.

TURKEY
Political Front:
Turkey's Second biggest opposition party, MHP has accused ruling AKP of using psychological warfare in the Kurdish issue. Despite government’s efforts to settle Kurdish issue, fierce rivalry between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) for Kurdish votes in southeastern Anatolia has hampered progress. Turkish ruling party has made serious efforts to bring a solution to the Kurdish issue by granting full citizenship rights to Turkey's Kurdish citizens. However it has not ruled out a military option to discourage PKK from militancy and terrorism. A referendum to bring about constitutional change, in case of the parliaments failure is also being considered. a recent survey by a national think tank revealed an overwhelming majority of Kurds being against division in Turk.
In the meanwhile thousands protesting in Istanbul's Taksim square against the ongoing Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) clashed with police.
Geo-strategic Front:
Turkish Foreign Minister has strongly condemned Israeli attacks against Palestinians worshipping in Masjid-e-Al-Aqsa. Also Turkish President has urged Armenia to end occupation of Azerbaijani Territory. The Turkish President has pointed out the possibility of Turkish refusal to join EU after the completion of negotiations, while declaring Turkey to be an asset for the European countries. Also President Gul has greatly appreciated Iran's decision to allow new controls on its nuclear energy program.
Social Front:
An elderly woman in Turkish city of Eskisehir has been allegedly refused medical examination by a doctor for wearing headscarf. Besides this, swine flu has emerged as potent social issue being faced by Turkish government today.
Economic Front:
Foreign exchange reserves of the Turkish Central Bank have decreased to $70 billion yet experts seem to be quite hopeful for the improvement in the overall economic structure.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 1- Micro Analysis: Missile Defence in the Middle East- America’s revamped plans. Week # 87, Dated 17th Sept-2nd Oct. 09’

In a radical revision of policy President Barack Obama has announced aborting missile defenses in Eastern Europe, originally being developed under the pretext of protection of the alleged missile threat from Iran, and possibly even North Korea.

The former Bush administration actively pushed the project with intentions to deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic by 2013; this was a program heavily invested in but lacked confidence in its projected functionality. However this policy antagonized Moscow which feared the shield would ultimately erode its own strategic nuclear deterrent.

Defence Secretary Robert Gates opined that owning to the great strides in missile defence and particularly the ability to counter short-and-medium-range missiles, the US has proven capabilities to intercept ballistic missiles with land-and-sea-based interceptors supported by much-improved sensors. These developments have propelled the deployment of a distributive sensor network through Naval Carriers patrolling the South Seas. A changed assessment of Iranian capabilities regarding its long-range missile programme by the US intelligence also contributed to the revamped plans.

Speaking of Obama's decision former Assistant Secretary of Defense explained that the current U.S. administration's plan focuses on what Iran actually does have i.e. short and medium range missiles that can reach southern Europe. The new plan might include deploying an X-band radar, a single directional device meant for detection, which may further assuage Russian concerns. This speculation has put the spotlight on Azerbaijan as a potential site, which borders Iran as well.

With the program scrapped, it opens the way for Russia, considered a major Iranian ally, to join with the United States in taking a harder line towards the country. This is being considered by analysts as yet another strategic move to isolate Iran and deter its aspirations for pursuing its alleged nuclear ambitions.

While in Eastern Europe, Poland and the Czech Republic, the original partner states, had based much of their future security policy on getting the missile defenses from the United States. The countries share deep concerns of a future military threat from the east- namely, Russia- and the local administrations had pursued the programs despite its lack of popularity at the domestic front.

However analysts are of the view that this new approach is more pragmatic and takes Russia onboard for greater co-operation on sanctions against possible new comers in the nuclear nations, Iran and North Korea; or on the broader agenda of restricting and regulating nuclear weapons worldwide and establishing a consensual (critiques would say hegemonic) global regulatory regime.


Discussion Questions:

· Do you think that America, with its revised defence program radically changing the tone towards Russia, has miscalculated the reactions of its East European allies?

· Would a united American and Russian front against Iran fare better in yielding diplomatic pressures on the country?

Related Links/ Bibliography
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6720153.stm
http://www.thearynews.com/english/newsdetail.asp?nid=34132
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2009/09/200991762548235181.html
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/09/what-a-revamped-us-missile-shield-might-look-like/
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/09/17/united.states.missile.shield/index.html

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 1-Asia- Telescopic Analysis: Credible Democracy in Asia- A process of dialogue. W # 87, Dated 25th Sept- 3rd Oct, 09'

Democratic maturity is a goal for many Asian nations with evolving systems of representation and governance. The presence of multiple parties and open channels of dialogue are considered to be vital for the integrity of this system.
In this week’s reports news items from Nepal depict a continued struggle to achieve a workable coalition government. A media dialogue in Azerbaijan regarding the instigation of dialogue hints at promising progress; also in Kyrgyzstan though the signs of reciprocation from the leadership have not yet surfaced, the opposition’s willingness to come to the table is being lauded.

NEPAL- Political Deadlock
Nepali politics is facing a serious deadlock in the wake of the election of Constituent Assembly (CA) which produced a fractured mandate. Neither CPN (Maoist) nor the rest of the parties have either absolute majority of 301 seats to form a one-party government.
The CPN (Maoist) has scored 220 seats out of 575 seats in the 601-member CA and has become the largest party in the country. However Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum have set several pre-conditions for their support to a Maoist led government. These include changing the interim constitution seeking only a simple majority for impeachment proceedings, a ceremonial president with the power to declare emergency and have the control of the army, demilitarizing and disbanding the Maoist-affiliated Young Communist League etc.
The CPN (Maoist) has opposed these demands proclaiming conspiracy guided by foreign forces, hence the ensuing deadlock. However all parties have expressed their desire to work towards a solution. Despite ongoing street protests, a continued series of talks and negotiations have paved a way towards a credible cooperative process.
In a latest development a crucial meeting of the ruling CPN-UML-led alliance and the Nepal Maoists in Katmandu on 13th Oct. failed to break the political impasse. The reinstatement of a deposed army chief under the previous executive, in what the opposition claims is an issue of ‘civilian supremacy’ is at the crux of the present stalemate. However despite the disrupted functioning of the parliament and stalled peace process, the commitment towards dialogue still holds strong and a nation wide awakened political consciousness demonstrates robust strides towards democratic maturity.

AZERBAIJAN- Invitation for Dialogue:
Over the past years, Azerbaijan's various fractious opposition parties have failed time and again to join forces to pose a strong, united, and cohesive alternative to the ruling Yeni Azerbaycan Party. The opposition suffered successive crushing defeats in the parliamentary elections of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008.
The last time, a political dialogue between the authorities and the opposition was organized through the mediation of the OSCE in the run-up to parliamentary elections in 2005. After the 2008 presidential election, its continuation was deemed necessary.
Where the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP) repeatedly claims it is ready for dialogue with the opposition on national issues, the opposition has so far considered its efforts as marginal. Where an MP from the Ruling party proclaims that, “Unfortunately, our counterparts understand a dialogue only as a seating face to face. A dialogue is a culture of listening to one-another and recognition of a right openly to publicize one-another’s positions,”; the Chairman of the opposition Great Establishment Party (GEP) countered that “Currently, realization of the government-opposition dialogue is not convincing in Azerbaijan. There is not any obstacle in the opposition to hold a dialogue. However, the current government is not interested in civil development of these relations,”.
Where critics term it as mere hedging on part of the ruling party, still the very existence of this dialogue in the public arena depicts the potential for credible engagement on the political front.

KYRGYZ opposition ready to negotiate with President
Kyrgyz opposition has voiced its consent to sit down at negotiating table with the president of the country, shared Azimbek Beknazarov, one of the leaders of the Kyrgyzstan’s Joint People’s Movement. Kyrgyz Opposition party has expressed its readiness to hold negotiations with the ruling regime after the release of its detained members. The Government however has denied receiving any written or oral suggestion by the Joint People’s Movement in that line.
“There will be no bargains with the authorities. We are for equitable negotiations and if the White House is really ready to listen to rational demands of the opposition, the meeting will take place,” the member of the movement said.
A nation widely believed to depict negative trends in democracy and political freedoms as well as endemic corruption, instigation of a credible political discussion is a vital step towards democratic integrity. Though the process of negotiation has not yet been installed, the opposition’s willingness to come to the table could be considered as a first step.

Discussion Questions:

· Are the attempts at dialogue amidst street protests and frequent walkouts just feeble attempts in chaotic nascent democracies, the failure of which perpetuates greater turmoil?

· In an environment where democracy is esteemed as an international benchmark, to what degree could the trends in domestic politics depict:
A) International pressures in an integrated world with higher stakes in the world community, or

B) A strategic shift in respective strategies of the involved participants for the sake of optimizing their political interests?

Related links/ Bibliography
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/127389
http://telegraphnepal.com/news_det.php?news_id=3476
http://avciya.az/eng/news/referendum/3043-topics-for-azerbaijani-government.html
http://avciya.az/eng/analitiks/1849-azerbaijani-ruling-and-opposition.html
http://avciya.az/eng/news/inthecountry/2761-no-problem-to-begin-discussions-with.html
http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1073561.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kg.html
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 87, Dated 26th Sept-2nd Oct 09’

SOUTH ASIA
Political Front: In Bangladesh top leaders of AL have emphasized the need for essential constitutional amendments to establish good governance and democracy in the country. At the same time internal rift has intensified inside Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Chittagong unit. Moving towards Sri Lanka, its Ambassador to Belgium, Luxembourg and the EU, has urged critical elements to facilitate the government in dealing with the issue of displaced people, rather then using it as a political tool. Political turmoil continues in Nepal where political parties have failed to reach a consensus, mainly regarding Maoist demands. In the Maldives an alliance of opposition parties has been trying to oust the government of Mohammad Nasheed. Also SALAF, a religious NGO in the country has advised the government against establishing ties with Israel. Bhutanese PM and government officials have expressed deep concern regarding 21st Sept earthquake, while trying to garner assistance from international agencies. In the meanwhile in Myanmar official media is stressing peace and stability in the run up to the multi-party general election scheduled next year.
Geo-strategic Front: US-Bangla ties have acquired a new dimension in the stead of the Obama regime seeking support world wide. Through USAID the U.S. Government has also signed an agreement to provide $205 million over a five year period to Nepal. Also the new US Ambassador to the Maldives, Ms Patricia A. Butenis, has assured support in the areas of security and development. The Maldives government has also signed a developmental loan agreement with Saudi Fund. In the meanwhile India has expressed serious concerns about the welfare of the IDPs in Northern Sri Lanka.
Social Front: In Bangladesh recently at least 232 H1N1 positive cases have been detected taking the count up to 604. All the while Sri Lanka has recorded the highest male death rate from liver diseases and the overall the highest male-female mortality ratio worldwide. In the Maldives over 15 kilos of narcotic drugs was destroyed by a special police committee.
A major earthquake in Bhutan has killed 12 people, injured 37 and affected at least 3,992 homes and 111 schools. Landslides triggered by heavy rains in southern part of Myanmar have also killed 3 Buddhist monks and damaged monasteries and homes.
Economic Front: South Asian business communities have been urged to invest more in Bangladesh an attractive investment destination in the region. All the while the country has earned remittances of 6.1 billion US dollars, in the last eight months. Despite economic recovery in the region, Srilankan air lines industry has to loose billions of rupees due to the economic turmoil. The government of Nepal collected Rs. 22.5 billion revenue by the second month of the current fiscal year. Still in an attempt to lessen the impact of the economic crisis, the country is set to cut salaries of civil servants by an average of 12.5%.

EAST ASIA
Political Front: Indonesian President Yudhoyono is deliberating his new cabinet for his second five years Presidential term set to start on 20 Oct. All the while Noordin Mohammed, an Al-Qaeda associate has died in a police attack. The Thai government has announced an Internal Security Act, to tighten security for the upcoming Asean summit. Meanwhile Red-shirt protestors have warned to launch three big demonstrations against the ruling regime in the month of October.
Geo-strategic Front: In the wake of the clashes between Thai protestors and Cambodian forces, the Thai government has criticized Cambodia’s excessive use of force while the later has admonished disruptive protestors. The dispute is over an ancient temple site. A primary concern has been the holdup in the resumption of peace talks.
Social Front: A group of about 40 Cambodian Cham Muslims came in clash with the police in front of a court over the arrest of one of their community leaders on disinformation charges.
Rapidly spreading Swine flu has become a serious source of tension for Thailand
Economic Front: Terrorists in Indonesia are regarded as a potent source of economic decline in the country, while Inflation in the country has unexpectedly accelerated in Sept. Inflation pressure has substantially increased in Vietnam as well. Lastly, Singapore is taking measures to attract investments in a bid to overcome impacts of the economic crisis.

CENTRAL ASIA
Political Front: The ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP) has reiterated its commitment to hold talks with Opposition parties on common national issues. Meanwhile the party has approved a program for the upcoming municipal elections. Kyrgyz Opposition party has expressed its readiness to hold negotiations with the ruling regime after the release of its detained members. Government however denied receiving any written or oral suggestion by the Joint People’s Movement in that line. Parliamentary election campaign in Uzbekistan started last week.
Geo-strategic Front: Azerbaijan has strongly condemned Armenia for attending Independence Day celebrations of the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan. UN that has declared Armenian occupation of Azeri land to be illegal has also been called on to condemn the act. Meanwhile the current US regime has expressed interest in deploying missile shield in Azerbaijan in a radical revision of missile defence plans. The country is opposed to a military base set up but has welcomed the deployment of Gabala Radar. All the while Azerbaijan and Russia have also signed military cooperation Plan for 2010. Military exercises by several members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) including Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, US and Britain, have started in northern Kazakhstan.
Kyrgyz PM has assigned high priority to cooperation with the US. A senior Tajik defense official has warned that fierce fights between Afghanistan's Taliban and the U.S.-led coalition may lead to the spillover of violence into neighboring Tajikistan. Meanwhile Tajik Ministry of Defense (MoD) has denied rumors about the possible withdrawal of the Russian military base from Tajikistan. Russian and Turkmen leaders have failed to sign a new gas deal. Meanwhile India has reiterated its interest in importing gas energy from Turkmenistan. Also Uzbek and Mongolian foreign ministry officials held their first-ever consultative meeting to discuss bilateral political, economic, trade, and humanitarian relations.
Social Front: A Norwegian human rights group has given its annual prize to an Azeri journalist, Malahat Nasibova, who was selected for her reporting on abuse of power, human rights violations, and corruption in the isolated Nakhchivan region in Azerbaijan. Europe's main security and rights watchdog has criticized its future chairman Kazakhstan for seizing the print run of an opposition newspaper, "Republika" weekly. Independent Journalists held a public protest in support of jailed Kazakh rights activist. Kyrgyz defence Ministry has claimed that at least 2 thousand school children annually become participants in crimes.
The Human Rights Dialogue between the Republic of Tajikistan and the European Union took place for the second time in Dushanbe. A quarrel between Chinese and Turkmen workers at an energy company in eastern Turkmenistan has left several people injured and hundreds detained. Meanwhile Kazakhstan has introduced a piece of legislation allowing transgender operations.

Economic Front: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has decided to extend up to $600 million in loans to Azerbaijan for water and sanitation improvements in infrastructure. Also the Azerbaijani Central Bank (CB) has recently completed the first phase of the project on improvement of risk management. Eight months after Kazakhstan’s law on Islamic finance and banking was adopted, a handful of local and international Islamic institutions have been established in the country. Russia and Kazakhstan's leadership have reiterated pledges to boost their bilateral economic and energy partnership. However, they remain divided over some divergent interests, notably in gas processing and oil transit.
While in Kyrgyzstan GDP growth has reached 114.3 billion soms in Jan-Aug 09’, inflation rate has hit 2.5-3 % this year while its export dropped 14.9 % compared to last year and amounted to $807.5 million. The Tajik Minister of Economic Development and Trade claimed that growth remained intact this year despite the economic crisis.

GCC
Geo-strategic Front: Israeli attacks against Palestinian worshipers in the sacred Mosque have been strongly condemned by GCC. Secretary General of GCC has asked the international community and the UNO to take strict measures against such aggression. In the meantime Gulf countries have appreciated Obama’s UN General Assembly address, claiming it provided a base for resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks. In the meantime GCC has expressed disappointment over the US’ inability to freeze Israel settlements.
Foreign Secretaries of Gulf countries held meeting with their Russian counterparts at the meeting of UNGA and discussed ways to boost their ties at various fronts. Oman held talks with Iran to discuss various issues including the Iranian nuclear program. All the while Foreign Minister of UAE at UNGA asked Iran to vacate its occupied islands. HezbAllah has accused United Arab Emirates for expelling dozens of long-term Lebanese Shiite residents from the country over their presumed affiliation with the Islamic group. Lastly, at its fourth assembly the Secretary-general of the World Council of Religious Leaders has appreciated Saudi King for paving the way for interfaith dialogues. At the same time Qatar has been declared as the most peaceful country in the Middle East by the Global Peace Index.
Social Front: During National Day celebrations Saudi teen-age rioters caused massive damage to restaurants and showrooms of international brands at the pretext of them being Israeli supporters. Meanwhile Hajj and Umrah businesses in the two holy cities of Makkah and Madina have incurred financial losses of about $240 million as a result of swine flu fears.
UAE has reiterated its commitment to fight human trafficking.
Economic Front: Economic experts believe that GCC countries have been slow in reacting to the impact of the global economic crisis. All the while Intra-Arab trade has gotten a significant boost since the WTO’s Doha Round. As a result of oil price rise Kuwait earned KD6.64bn ($ 23.1bn) in the first five months of its fiscal year, about 82 % of projected annual income.

TURKEY
Political Front: The government has reiterated its commitment to resolve Kurdish issue through its democratic initiative. As a first step government has decided to annul a law which prevents retrials based on the European Court of Human Rights (ECTHR) rulings against Turkey; hence giving the Kurdish people the right to appeal against the government. The Prime Minister has also won a lawsuit filed against the leader of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, for defamation.
Geo-strategic Front: Turkey has strongly condemned Israeli attacks against Masjid-e-Aqsa as PM Erdogan called Israel the only ‘potent threat’ in the region. Further more Turkey hopes to mediate between the West and Iran, while the Turkish PM appreciated the latter’s decision to open its doors to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The PM also announced plans for signing a diplomatic deal with Armenia. The Turkish decision came due to the US pressure as well as Turkish desire to be part of EU. Within EU, Germany and France, opposed to Turkish entry into the Union have offered privileged partnership to the country instead, however Turkey has declined to accept.
Social Front: The government has announced a plan allowing minorities to worship at sacred places.
Economic Front: In Turkey annual inflation increased 5.27 percent in consumer prices index, and rose 0.47 percent in producer prices index as of September. All the while number of foreign tourists arriving in the southern resort city of Antalya by airplanes since the beginning of 2009 reached nearly 7.5 million. IMF and World Bank have also predicted a speedy recovery for Turkey.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 1- Asia. Microscopic Analysis: ‘Life Long Presidency’ in Kazakhstan- a Pseudo Democracy? ; Week # 86. Dated 20th-26th Sept, 09'

A leader of Kazakhstan's ruling party recently floated a suggestion for constitutional changes redefining the role of the president, opening the door to making President Nursultan Nazarbeyev head of state for life.

The comments came one week after the president's website and state television ran a eulogy of Nazarbayev that called for an end to democratic elections, sparking speculation that such a change was in the works. The idea was allegedly proposed to the president by Zakratdin Baidosov, a professor in the northwestern city of Aqtobe, during a recent visit there by Nazarbaev.

Nazarbayev is the recognized leader of Nur Otan party, which controls all elected seats in the lower house of parliament. He has always sought to maintain the semblance of democracy in his one-party state. Officially, Nazarbayev received 91 percent of the vote in the last presidential election in 2005, which was declared flawed by international observers. The country's pliant parliament did away with restrictions on presidential term limits in 2007, opening the door for Nazarbayev - who has run the country since the Soviet days and after independence - to continue ruling the ex-Soviet state indefinitely.

With this latest development opposition leaders were adamant over the suggestion that Nazarbayev should be freed from a fundamental democratic check against executive excess. Some issued dire warnings about Kazakhstan’s future if the president-for-life concept became a reality.

On the international front as well eliminating further elections would likely be a controversial move, as Kazakhstan prepares to take over the rotating chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE in January. Allegations of restricting independent media and rights groups - including a recent arrest of the country's most prominent human rights activist – has prompted criticism from rights groups.

Nevertheless Nazarbayev is genuinely popular among ordinary Kazakhs. He has been applauded for forging relative social harmony in a country where 130 ethnic groups live. Popular pride in Kazakhstan is heightened by the country’s favorable comparisons with neighboring states, which are more economically stressed and politically unstable. Nazarbayev’s critics however say that his positive image is partly the product of the administration’s tight control over mass media

Recent polls show Nazarbayev’s approval rating remains high: research conducted in May by Baltic Surveys Ltd. and The Gallup Organization indicated he enjoys the support of 84 percent of the population.[1]
The presidential administration has denied being behind the president-for-life ‘trial balloon’, claiming it to be the initiative of ‘specific people’. They have further stressed that the issue is not on the administration’s agenda. The speculations however have sparked a national debate which may determine the course of Kazakhstan’s democratic credentials in the long term.

Discussion Questions:

· Does Nazarbayev’s popularity in national polls, despite International Observers having termed the elections flawed, neutralize allegations of a pseudo democratic Kazakhstan?

· Is the mere suggestion of a ‘president for life’ political option reflective of a nation devoid of a robust democratic conscience?

· Is the national debate too short sighted in essence, banking excessively on Nazerbayev’s unifying leadership, at the expense of developing credible institutions?

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Bibliography:
[1] Kazakh National Opinion Poll, conducted May 9- 23, 2009. http://www.iri.org/newsreleases/pdfs/IRI%20Southern%20Kazakhstan%20May%202009%20PDF%20-%20English.pdf § http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=party-leader-kazakhstan-to-consider-lifelong-presidency-2009-09-15
§ http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav092409.shtml
§ http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav091307.shtml
§ http://www.rferl.org/content/OSCE_Mum_On_Kazakh_PresidentForLife_Initiative/1825942.html
§ http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav061909.shtml

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 85-86, Dated 12th-26th Sept 2009

INDIA

Political Front:
National level: Communist Party of India (Marxist) has asked government to implement Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act with sincerity in order to provide justice and equal opportunities to lower casts. Meanwhile Samajwadi Party Chief and former Defence Minister Mulayam Singh has asked government to call a Lok Sabha session to discuss China’s incursion in Indian Border States. As far as by-polls are concerned Congress has lost some of its seats in Delhi JD (U) while BJP has won seats from there. Despite strong opposition from various segments RSS has reiterated its commitment to Hindutva ideology. In terms of insurgencies causing domestic unrest PM Man Mohan Singh has declared Naxalite movement to be major threat to Indian security and blamed foreign actors for supporting such movements to destabilize the country. Lastly Kashmir remained on high alert as a result of some information of infiltration.
At the Regional Front NCP and Congress parties have started putting efforts to bring some mutually agreed solution of seats sharing in by polls in Maharashtra.
Geo-Strategic Front:
On one hand Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram during his visit to US, blamed Pakistan for its involvement in cross border infiltration. On the other hand Pakistan has approved South Asian train service (Dhaka-Delhi-Lahore) initiative taken by India on the same pattern as Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul plans. All the while Pakistan has rejected Indian protest over its Gilgit-Baltistan package and dam construction in Azad Kashmir.

Social Front:
Indian Muslim women have maintained the custom of offering Salatut Tasbeeh in a gathering during the holy month of Ramadan in Lucknow inspite opposition from administration.

Economic Front:
Overall Indian economy has started improving. The IT industry in this regard has witnessed remarkable recovery after recession.

EAST ASIA

Political Front:
Malaysian PM has reiterated his commitment to transforming the party in order to win public support. Meanwhile the MIC- Malaysian Indian Congress President Samy Veller has asked former PM Mahatir Mohammad to stop interfering in nominating a Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate for the Bagan Pinang by-election, slatted for Oct 11. Moving towards Philippines, lawmakers have expressed apprehension that a leadership vacuum would result in case of failure of elections next year. While an opposition leader proposed that power should be transferred to an interim President prior to elections in order to save country from instability. In the meantime; Philippine President Arroyo's spokesperson denied any plan of to declare martial law for the rest of her term, and that automated polls will be conducted, as scheduled, next year. In the meantime the Philippines and the country’s largest Muslim rebel group moved closer to resuming peace talks after the two sides signed an agreement to form a new foreign observer team.

Geo-Strategic Front:
Despite Cambodian government’s deployment of riot police at Thai-Cambodian border; “yellow shirt” protestors launched demonstrations according to their plan and came in direct confrontation with villagers and police. In the meantime Thai PM assured his public that they have lost no territory in the disputed Thai-Cambodian border area near Preah Vihear temple. Apart from this Thai PM has appreciated the US and European efforts to engage Myanmar in talks in order to bring political change, improve human rights and stem drug trafficking from the country. As far as the presence of US troops in Philippines is concerned the government defended its agreement with the United States on visiting forces as "important, useful and relevant" even while majority of senators in the country called for review of the treaty.

Social Front:
Indonesian rights activists as well as Christians strongly condemned a new Islamic law calling for adulterers to be stoned to death in the country’s staunchly conservative Aceh province. Meanwhile growing number of Afghan asylum seekers has become serious source of concern for Indonesian government. Amnesty International has repeated its call for Malaysia to stop using the penalty of caning altogether, after a court sentenced a Muslim to six strokes of the cane and a year in prison for drinking alcohol. Moving towards Thailand, military has been engaging more with Muslim communities and has turned to community development projects in attempt to win over the hearts and minds of locals. Educators in the Muslim Autonomous Region of Philippines have agreed that strengthening of Islamic schools, known as "Madaris" would lead to the attainment of lasting peace as well as economic development in the restive region of Muslim Mindanao. Flooding and landslides triggered by a tropical storm killed 11 people and displaced over 360,000 in five provinces in the Philippines. Lastly, the National Integration Council (NIC) in Singapore has called for arts groups to help promote interaction between locals and new immigrants.

Economic Front:
The Indonesian government, facing decreased exports in the economic revession is planning on attracting investment in the domestic industry. The Malaysian company, Universal Pacific Ltd has been given a 50-year concession by the Laos Government to develop a special economic zone near the newly-completed Laos-Thai railway line across the Mekong River. According to New York-based Global Source the Philippines' budget deficit would probably stay above 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) next year due to the lack of heightened revenue efforts and continued pump-priming activities to stir the economy. While Thailand's recession eased in the second quarter, as consumer confidence rose for the third straight month indicated by growing demand of agriculture products, electronics and auto-parts; yet economists suspect that political instability could overshadow recovery. In the meantime the unemployment figures in the country have dropped from one million to a normal level at 300,000 to 400,000 people. Singapore’s labor market has started showing signs of improvement; employment however remained at a decline. Lastly, Vietnam has been identified as one of the key markets for global investors, ranking number one on the top 10 emerging markets beyond the BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India and China) for investors over the next five years.

CENTAL ASIA
Political Front:
Azerbaijan prepares for upcoming municipal elections. Supporters of Yevgeny Zhovtis, the director of the International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law in Kazakhstan, have announced that they consider him a political prisoner. All the while Kazakhstan's opposition party leaders have slammed the idea of passing the bill, "The leader of the nation," based on the concept of life-long Presidency. Kyrgyzstan has established the Transit Center at Manas airport in Bishkek as a move to counter global terrorism.

Geo-Strategic Front:
Hungary has expressed her intention to enhance military education cooperation with Azerbaijan. In the meantime President of Azerbaijan paid successful visit to Kazakhstan. Also the Russian President arrived in Kazakhstan, kicking off a tour of the energy-rich Caspian Sea region; where they would hold a four-way summit with the leaders of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Steppe Eagle-2009 international tactical exercises began in Almaty region that involved over 1.5 thousand soldiers from Kazakhstan, Great Britain and the USA. Consultations between the foreign ministries of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan on bilateral cooperation and interaction within international organizations, including the OSCE, were conducted in Dushanbe at the end of last week. Authorities of the Kyrgyz special services took part in the meeting with the President of Russia. No principle decisions on the Russian military base in Tajikistan have been adopted during Russian defense minister’s discussions with Tajik officials. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez paid a two-day visit to Turkmenistan and signed agreement with Turkmen President to enhance bilateral cooperation between them. During a bilateral meeting, President of Turkmenistan and his Russian counterpart discussed and reaffirmed the Turkmen-Russia strategic and economic cooperation in the light of the huge resource potential of the two countries. This year has seen a breakthrough in relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Social Front:
Religious themes have been part of textbooks of secondary school in Azerbaijan. The number of HIV/AIDS patients in Kyrgyzstan's Jalalabad region has increased by 150 percent since 2006. Currently growing number of Swine flu victims has become serious source of concern for the government. Meanwhile the first official regional Islamic school, or Madrasa, has opened in the southern Kyrgyz city of Batken. The re-registration of mosques, churches, and temples in Tajikistan has been proceeding despite a lack of participation by non-Muslim communities. Turkmen President's book "Herbs of Turkmenistan" received the diploma of the 22nd Moscow International Book Fair "for fundamental concept and high level research encyclopedia".

Economic Front:
Azerbaijan State Oil Company (SOCAR) exported 1.715 million tons of oil via Baku-Novorossiysk in Jan.-Aug. 2009, a rise of 1.9 times from the same period of 2008. Meanwhile Investments in Azerbaijan’s economy earmarked as part of the contracts on development of oil and gas fields have hit $37 billion. A loan worth 500 million US dollars has been presented to Kazakhstan by the Asian Development Bank. According to Central Bank of Russia Kyrgyzstan ranks among 10 top recipients of large money transfers from Russia. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have expressed intention to restore historic, economic ties. Turkmenistan's president insisted that his Central Asian nation has enough natural gas reserves to supply a planned pipeline that could reduce Western reliance on Russian energy exports. Uzbekistan has expressed intention to attract foreign investors for uranium deposits development. Meanwhile the forum of business circles of Uzbekistan and China took place in Tashkent on 7 September.

GCC- Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Front:
The Kuwaiti Cabinet has vowed commitment to His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah's speech, addressed on the occasion of the last ten days of Ramadan, for the ultimate service of the country and its citizens.

Geo-strategic Front:
Foreign ministers of the GCC states held a consultative meeting on the sidelines of the 64th UN General Assembly session. In the meantime, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Chinese government have successfully concluded the first round of negotiations to establish a free trade zone between the GCC and China, in Saudi Arabia. The warming relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria received boost with the attendance of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad at the inaugural ceremony of King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST). All the while despite efforts by the US Embassy to ease visa process for Saudi students, glitches still exist. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) expressed appreciation of the humanitarian efforts made by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Lastly, the volume of trade between China and Qatar has increased, and the cultural and political relations between the two sides have greatly improved.

Social Front:
At social front the GCC countries, seem highly concerned to combat multiple communicable diseases threat caused by the huge influx of people from the neighboring Arab countries. In Saudi Arabia, while the debate on stopping all commercial activity during prayer times continues, one local online newspaper in Hail province has decided to advocate for this pause by taking down its site for 20 minutes, five times a day. In the meantime Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Aziz Al-Asheikh has strongly criticized the Tash Ma Tash comedy series broadcast on an Arab satellite television during Ramadan. He termed it malicious adding that it targeted religion and damaged social cohesiveness. The Bahraini King provided more than 10,000 widows and orphans with Eid gifts. Likewise, Qatar National Bank (QNB) has extended its support to the Eid Gift project, an annual charity drive conducted by Qatar Red Crescent to help needy families in the country.

Economic Front:
Bahrain has been regarded as one of the best places in the world to do business. The annual inflation rate in UAE has witnessed a substantial fall this year settling at somewhere between 3.5pc and 4pc, while Abu Dhabi has emerged leading the recovery from the economic downturn in the Gulf. It now accounts for 23 per cent of all advertised jobs in the GCC. Meanwhile foreign investments in Qatar have increased by 42%.

FERTILE CRESCENT
Political Front:
Egypt has defended its role on Lebanese politics amidst accusations of hindering the formation of a new government. Meanwhile World envoys to the United Nations cultural organization UNESCO gave 22 out of 57 votes to Culture Minister Farouk Hosni in his bid to be elected the new director general, despite widespread charges of anti-Semitism against him. Moving onwards Iraq’s cabinet has approved a draft law paving the way for national elections in January, including a shift to an open list allowing voters to pick candidates and not just parties. Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri announced to launch the second round of parliamentary consultations of cabinet formation. On the first day of parliamentary consultations Lebanon's Hezbollah-led opposition and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, refrained from renaming the head of the ruling majority Saad Hariri as prime Minister, projecting bleaker prospects for government formation.

Geo-strategic Front:
Iraq has asked Syria to stop militants using it as a base before initiating any kind of talks about restoring diplomatic ties. French President Nicolas Sarkozy voiced support for Lebanese President Michel Sleiman and his prime minister-designate as they struggle to piece together a new government. Meanwhile several rockets have been fired from Southern Lebanon in the territory of Israel though causing no casualties. As a result Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Lebanon that Israel "will not hold back" when attacked and would consider the Lebanese government responsible for any assault on his country. The US has also condemned these attacks. Lebanon however has started looking towards Iran for weapons to counter any Israeli attack while emphasizing a need for unity among Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran to face the Israeli threat.

Social Front:
Iraq has been facing unprecedented water shortages threatening to turn its once fertile southern plateaus into desert, while raising fears of a substantial drop in domestic rice yields this year. Leading Lebanese Shiite scholar Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah has issued a fatwa, forbidding the normalization of ties with neighboring Israel.

Economic Front:
Lebanon received the equivalent of $298 million in foreign currency reserves on September 9 from a new program established by the International Monetary Fund.

TURKEY
Political Front:
The Justice Ministry is seeking comprehensive reform, with 2010 declared the judicial reforms year in Turkey, in a bid to raise its standards in compliance with EU membership criteria. Turkey's biggest media corporation, Doğan Yayın , has started to argue that a record fine of $2.5 billion by the government against it was arbitrary and violated press freedom. Neutral observers however expressed doubt about the media organization that has repeatedly ignored public interest for decades using the argument that “press freedom is in danger.” Despite PM’s commitment to resolve Kurdish issue by democratic initiative; he has reiterated that the Turkish military would continue its operations against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Meanwhile government has condemned opposition parties for not lending support to them over Kurdish issue despite support from a majority of the population. Three recent public opinion polls conducted by independent firms for the Ministry of Interior show that between 55 and 64 percent of Turks support the government's Kurdish initiative .

Geo-strategic Front:
Turkish role in bridging gap between Syria and the Western countries has been regarded as crucial by many observers. The two countries started to implement a mutual visa exemption procedure on 18 September. The Turkish foreign minister has also defined Iran as a neighbor, friend and a partner country. While on the other hand the US President Barack Obama's administration has notified Congress of a possible $7.8 billion sale of Patriot PAC-3 antimissile batteries and related equipment to Turkey, the only NATO ally, bordering Iran. Meanwhile at the domestic front Turkey's plan to buy a massive missile system, from the United States, has left experts wondering whom Ankara sees as a threat in the region and how the multi-billion-dollar project would be financed amid the economic recession. Turkish Foreign Minister however claimed that purchase of arms was for Turkish security and not against any foreign threat. Ongoing peace talks between Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders have been progressing with cautious optimism that an agreement could be reached. The first ministerial meeting of the Turkey-Iraq Strategic Cooperation Council was held in Istanbul on 17-18 September.

Social Front:
Torrential rains paralyzed daily life throughout Turkey.

Economic Front:
Turkey's unemployment dropped to 13 percent in June, a 0.6 percent fall compared to the previous month. All the while according the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's (UNCTAD) annual review of investment trends, Turkey attracted 18.2 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) last year, moving it up five notches on the list of top recipients of FDI globe. But while the country now ranks 20th on the list of FDI recipients, it experienced a 17 percent decline in FDI inflows from its $22 billion peak in 2007. Despite all this; recently introduced mid-term economic program by Turkish government focuses primarily on economic growth.
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.