Zone 1- Micro Analysis: ‘India’s Revised Military Doctrine-

Week #100 – Dated Dec. 27th-Jan. 2nd 2009-10’

'A new Chapter in the Sino-Indian Dynamic?’

In remarks reported last week, Indian army chief Gen Deepak Kapoor reaffirmed that India was evolving a new military doctrine, outlining some of its key elements. The Army is now revising its five-year-old doctrine to effectively meet the challenges of a possible `two front war' with China and Pakistan, deal with asymmetric and fourth-generation warfare, and enhance strategic reach and joint operations with IAF and Navy. Dr. Maleeha Lodhi, a leading Pakistani academician and diplomat, notes that under the recent revisions:
* The Indian army is revising its five-year-old doctrine to meet the challenge of war with China and Pakistan.
* The development of the "cold start" strategy is progressing "successfully."
* Five "thrust areas" will determine the new doctrine:
i) Dealing with the eventuality of a "two-front" war.
ii) Countering "both military and non-military facets of asymmetric and sub-conventional threats."
iii) Enhancing "strategic reach and out-of-area capabilities" to protect India's interests from the Persian Gulf to the Malacca Strait.
iv) Attaining "operational synergy" between the three services.
v) Achieving a technological edge over adversaries.
According to Dr. Lodhi the emerging doctrine appears to be both aspirational and emulative. Aspirational because its breadth and sweep reflects a mindset that seeks to create "big power" dynamics by projecting India as a rival to China and aiming to develop a capacity to act in two combat theatres simultaneously. She further notes that the doctrine also emulates the US Pentagon's Quadrennial Defence Review undertaken every four years and borrows superpower language to assert the need to build "out of area" capabilities and acquire "strategic reach", quoting it as ‘the most presumptuous tenet of the doctrine which employs the idiom of big powers without, however, the capability to back it’.
Another analyst notes The mentioning of China in Indian chief statement is a mere indication to West and US that now India is ready to take a role of regional power a counter against communist China.
Over the years a Chief irritants to the Sino-Indian relationship have been a continuing border dispute. At the security front India is also concerned by China's burgeoning defense expenditure, its building of infrastructure along the border, and its "string of pearls" strategy of setting up naval bases in the Indian Ocean. According to one Indian analyst India is now taking steps -- albeit belatedly -- to strategically counter the stark military asymmetry with China in the eastern sector.
On the other hand China has its own strategic concerns, particularly the fact that India is being courted by the U.S. in a strategy aimed at forging a regional alliance comprising India, Japan, Australia and the U.S. This week Army chief General Deepak Kapoor will be visiting Myanmar, a country with which India has ramped up diplomatic as well as military ties to counter China's deep strategic inroads there. With the revised Indian defence doctrine where Pakistan has been prompt in its response, describing India's reported move as 'betraying hostile intent' and reflecting a 'hegemonic and jingoistic mindset'. The People's Republic of China has not come out so far with any official reaction on the subject.
An Indian analyst D S Rajan comments that it is interesting to note that the same theme of India's 'two front war', worded a bit differently as 'two front mobile warfare' has figured in an in-depth authoritative Chinese evaluation of India's defence strategy, done as early as November 2009. Titled 'Great Changes in India's Defence Strategy -- War objective shifts to giving China importance, while treating Pakistan as lightweight', the analysis contributed by Hao Ding, a researcher of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, published in the Party-affiliated Chinese language organ, China Youth Daily, on November 27, 2009, identifies five shifts that have taken place in India's defence strategy:
'In terms of goals, India now aims at becoming a global military power in contrast to its earlier objective to acquire a regional military power status'. 'From the point of view of strategic guidelines the 'active defence' concept has replaced the old line of passive defence’. India is stressing on taking initiatives so as to be able to conduct a hi-tech 'limited conventional war' against the enemy 'under conditions of nuclear deterrence'.
The write-up says that in 21st century, India has done a reassessment of the military threats coming from Pakistan and China. It considers that in comparison to Pakistan, China is politically stable with a fast developing economy, a continuously accelerating military modernization drive and growing comprehensive national strength. Therefore, the potentials of 'China threat' to it are on the rise.
In matters of strategic deployment, India has shifted to a strategy of stabilizing the western front and strengthening the northern front as well as giving equal emphasis to land and sea warfare, in contrast to the earlier stress only on land warfare.
A recent Chinese assessment by an analyst under the title 'Panoramic View of International Military Situation in 2009', the analysis contributed by Ma Kang, deputy director, Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defence University, Liberation Army Daily, December 29 highlights the defence budget increases in the US, Russia and India. It points to India's '24 percent defence budget increase' in 2009 as compared to previous year as well as efforts to build an aircraft carrier of its own, launch of first home made submarine Arihant and goals set towards possessing 'three dimensional nuclear strategic capability.'
What stand out are the unmistakable adversarial tones with which the two highly placed Chinese experts have talked about India. What Indian analysts highlight is the apparent dichotomy in the thinking of the civilian and military apparatus in China on relationship with India.
At top-level defense talks in Beijing last week, China and India announced the resumption of their "Hand in Hand" military training exercises in 2011, the first positive news in China-India relations in several months. Quoting what Indian analysts deem as mixed signals from china, they note that it would be in India's interests to continue 'engaging' China. It should at the same time take all necessary steps to protect its strategic interests; whereby they assert India's revised defence strategy proves that it is prepared to do the same.

Discussion Question:
¨ Is the revamped Indian strategy too ambitious in its approach or is it a balanced assessment of a swiftly evolving regional dynamic?

Bibliography/ Related Sources:
1. http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2010/01/14/cold-start-indian-threat-pakistan-china
2. http://gokunming.com/en/blog/item/1317/china_india_military_drills_back_on_for_2011
3. http://www.upiasia.com/Security/2009/09/04/chinas_military_advantage_over_india_vanishing/9317/
4. http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/21245.asp
5. http://thecurrentaffairs.com/contemplating-a-rationale-for-general-deepak-kapoor.html
6. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Eye-on-China-Army-chief-on-Myanmar- visit/articleshow/5107164.cms
7. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Army-reworks-war-doctrine-for-Pakistan-China/articleshow/5392683.cms
8. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1931739,00.html
9. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1697595,00.html?iid=sphere-inline-bottom
10. http://news.rediff.com/column/2010/jan/07/how-china-views-indias-new-defence-doctrine.htm
11. http://www.daily.pk/why-china%E2%80%99s-ignores-india-and-its-new-%E2%80%98military- doctrine%E2%80%99-14334/
12. http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=216861

________________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
Please Preview your comments before posting.

Zone 1- Asia Summary- Week # 100

Week # 100, Dated 26th Dec. - 1st Jan. 2009-10’

FERTILE CRESCENT
Political Front: In Egypt, the National Democratic Party’s supreme policies council conference was held last weekend that focused primarily on Constitutional reforms. Meanwhile Mohamed Habib, deputy supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, resigned from his posts in the group in opposition to the recent Guidance Office elections, from which he was left out.
The Iraqi elections' commission has singled out 15 countries for Iraqis abroad to vote in for the upcoming elections. meanwhile in Lebanon March 14 forces general-secretariat lashed back at Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah over his last speech on the occasion of Ashoura, saying they were surprised by Nasrallah's "unconcealed threats and nervous advices" he addressed to the Christians.
Geo-strategic Front: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed efforts to revive the stalled Middle East peace process with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Cairo claims talks can only start when Jewish settlement activity stops.
Social Front: In Egypt the Ministry of Health announced five more swine flu deaths, raising the H1N1 death toll to 122. In the meantime Ministry of Tourism presented a new advertising campaign to attract tourists to the country.
Economic Front: Iranian soldiers have withdrawn 50m from an oil well along the southern Iraqi-Iranian border.
Riaz Salameh, Central Bank Governor told OTV that Lebanon could take advantage of the increase in the price of gold, adding that the Lebanese currency would be stable in 2010.
GCC- Gulf Cooperation Council
Geo-strategic Front: Palestinian President Mehmood Abbas paid visit to Saudi Arabia and discussed prospects of Middle East peace process. The Saudi government also seems keen to enhance ties with Sudan, Malaysia and Egypt.
France has expressed it's readiness to join the UAE in implementing its peaceful nuclear energy programme. In the meantime growing relations of UAE with Oman and South Korea also grabbed attention. Oman has also been making efforts to boost ties with Kazakhstan, Italy and Kuwait. Growing Kuwaiti ties with Bahrain, Turkey and Poland also remained significant.
Qatar has reiterated its support for the Palestinian cause. Meanwhile some Kuwaiti Members of Parliament (MPs) have asked Israel to stop violations against holy Muslim sites in Jerusalem, particularly the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Saudi Arabia has claimed victory in a conflict with Yemeni rebels.
Social Front: Around 40 Saudi officials and contractors have been detained in the probe into the November 25 flood in Jeddah which killed 120 people.
Saudi Shoura (Consultative) Council has praised the increased budgetary allocations for education and manpower training. Meanwhile the Saudi ministry of education has been urged to play a major role in launching social awareness campaigns against sexual abuse of children.
Disabled students in Bahrain are to be given a chance to study for one year in the United States as part of a strategic plan to empower individuals with special needs. Remarkable increase in literacy rate has been a priority for Oman as well.
Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister H E Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabor Al Thani figure on the list of 50 personalities of Financial Times (FT) who shaped the Decade 2000-2010 in the field of culture. Meanwhile Qatar's divorce rate has been steadily going up. A study conducted recently by Qatar University (QU) revealed that majority of pharmacists there lack knowledge about breast cancer.
Opposition MPs in Kuwait called Information Minister to close down what they called ‘corrupt TV stations’.
Economic Front: In United Arab Emirates Ministry of Economy announced that prices of edible and non-edible commodities won’t be increased. Meanwhile a $40 billion deal by UAE to acquire nuclear reactors puts it ahead in a drive to meet fast growing power needs among its Gulf neighbors. It also allows greater export of its oil. Oman's total exports of crude oil stood at 199.54 million barrels during the first ten months of 2009, constituting a 10.9 % rise. Meanwhile Qatar seems quite optimistic about its growth in the year 2010 and 2011.
CENTRAL ASIA
Political Front: Despite smooth municipal elections process in Azerbaijan cases of interference of local authorities in the voting process in Naftalan was observed leading to the annulment of elections in the region.
A court in the northeastern Kyrgyz sentenced four people to four years in jail each for holding an illegal protest during last July's presidential elections. meanwhile Uzbekistan held a parliamentary election in which four parties -- all of whom supported the rule of President Islam Karimov were competing.
Geo-strategic Front: Hungarian FM called the Republic of Azerbaijan a strategic partner in the South Caucasus region. In the meanwhile Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have resumed work of the intergovernmental commission on delimitation and demarcation of the state border after a 5-year break.
Tajikistan remained busy in negotiations with an Iranian envoy and President of Turkey to enhance cooperation. Meanwhile Russia has approved and supported the commissioning of the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline.
Social Front: Russian police have freed 15 Kyrgyz children who were forced to work in an underground factory in Moscow Oblast.
Economic Front: State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has announced to increase gas supplies to Russia up to 1 billion cubic meters per year in 2010. Meanwhile Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan sales turnover amounted to $140 million in 11 months of 2009. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth reached 2.4 % in 11 months of 2009 taking 2nd place among CIS countries.
INDIA
Political Front: National level: The Prime Minister’s working group on State-Centre relations, headed by Retired Justice Sageer Ahmad, has recommended restoration of autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, a recommendation that BJP refused to accept while the opposition also voiced its criticism regarding the appointment of a retired judge.
Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor has questioned the tightening of Indian visa rules in the backdrop of the David Headley case, the Pakistani-American’s alleged involvement in the Mumbai attacks. He claimed that the policy will create hurdles for the expansion of tourism and foreign investment.
On the Maoist insurgency front, leader Kishanji has warned government of violent retaliation if the centre were to launch an operation against them.
Regional front: Andhra Pradesh’s political crisis become more acute as the demand for Telangana state turned violent. Protest and strikes badly damaged law and order situation that has effectively restrained foreign and local investment in Hyderabad and other business centers of the state. In the meantime the Centre has called an all parties meeting to discuss and solve the issue of statehood of Telangana region.
In Jharkand BJP has decided to form a coalition government with Jharkand Mukti Morcha and other regional parties.
Geo-strategic Front: The Indian Navy has planned to buy a state-of-the-art, multi-role, new generation carrier-based fighter aircraft to enhance its capabilities. Also India has expressed satisfaction with increasing Japanese presence in South Asia deeming it an appropriate counter for Chinese influence in the region. Meanwhile General Deepak Kapoor in his recent speech mentioned India’s strategy to be prepared for simultaneous two front wars with China and Pakistan, a comment that the later took strict notice of as intent of threat to its territorial integrity.
Social Front: In Maathur a village when Dalits were allowed to enter a temple after long negotiations, the upper caste Hindus left the village in protest.
Economic Front: Indian economic experts have forecasted fast growth of Indian economy in the coming decade, projecting that if India maintains 9-10% of growth rate it would overtake China till 2020 provided it controls its high fiscal deficit.
EAST ASIA
Political Front: UMNO members have expressed satisfaction with Najib Razak's performance since taking over the helm as party president and Malaysian PM. Meanwhile in the Philippines a candidate of the 2010 elections was shot and wounded, the second political victim of targeted attacks.
Cambodia has issued an arrest warrant for the country's main opposition leader Sam Rainsy, currently residing in Paris. He has been charged with inciting racial discrimination and intentionally damaging property.
Geo-strategic Front: The Cambodian PM has claimed to have seen a secret Thai government document outlining the plan to mount a coup, a charge the Thai PM denounced, claiming his government’s clear policy to maintain good relations. He further added his intention not to interfere in Cambodia's internal affairs or criticize domestic Cambodian politics.
Social Front: A Malaysian court has ruled that Christians have the constitutional right to use the word Allah in reference to God; he further claimed that government's ban on non-Muslims using the word was illegal. A Christian group hailed the ruling as a victory for freedom of religion in the Muslim-majority country, where the issue has become a symbol of religious grievances of minority groups.
The United Nations refugee chief has called on the Thai Government not to deport around 4,000 ethnic Hmong to neighboring Laos.
Economic Front: Indonesian policy makers have been trying hard to attract more foreign investment to speed up economic growth and make inroads into unemployment and poverty. Meanwhile Indonesia and Thailand seem quite hopeful regarding speedy economic recovery this year. Vietnam’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than a year in the fourth quarter with its Gross domestic product growing 6.9 percent from a year earlier as lending growth fueled construction and consumer sales. Meanwhile in Singapore despite its gross domestic product having climbed by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, growth for the full year remained negative at minus 2.1 per cent. Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand have announced to import and export almost all goods across their borders at zero tariffs.
CHINA
Political Front: China's top political advisor Jia Qinglin has called for efforts to push peaceful relations with Taiwan. Meanwhile at least 15 governor and ministerial-level officials have been brought down against charges of corruption. Senior Chinese leaders also met in Beijing to discuss China's anti-corruption drive in 2009, and to plan next year's battle against graft.
Geo-strategic Front: Senegal and China have recently signed a technical and economic cooperation agreement. Meanwhile Nepali Prime Minister termed his visit to the country as a milestone in the history of cordial and cooperative relations. Chinese strong ties with North Korea, Russia and EU also remained significant.
The Republic of Congo has received a donation of 3.5 billion FCFA (about 7.6 million U. S. dollars) from China to finance the central African country's health facilities. China has also opposed Israel's new settlement plan in East Jerusalem.
Social Front: The Chinese government has vowed to facilitate foreign journalists' work in the country while beseeching them to obey Chinese laws.
A total of 606,100 tourists from the Chinese mainland visited Taiwan in 2009, fulfilling expectations despite the impact of H1N1 flu and the global economic downturn.
There have been three rounds of talks between Google and Chinese writers whose works were copied by the Internet giant without authorization. The fourth round of talks is expected to begin soon.
While talking about environmental issues Chinese PM claimed that despite their adherence to various summits aimed to make environment better; China has got the right to develop its industries.
Economic Front: Chinese huge economic market has become an attractive destination for the US investors. A free-trade agreement between China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) took effect on 1st Jan. 2010. Chinese stock exchange has been performing well throughout the week. While the Chinese farmers saw their per capita annual net income rise to a historic high of 5,000 yuan (735 U.S. dollars) in 2009.
Hong Kong & Macau: The average wage rate for all major sectors fell 1.8 percent in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong economy has continued to rebound since pulling out of recession in the second quarter, with the latest statistics show a reversal to year-on-year growth in exports in November. The unemployment rate for the period of September to November 2009, reached 3.3 percent, slightly dropping by 0.2 percentage point over the previous period of August to October. Macao's trade deficit for the first eleven months of 2009 has widened by 5.6 percent over the same period of last year. §

________________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
Please Preview your comments before posting.

Zone 1- Microscopic Analysis: Iran’s Nuclear Controversy

Week # 98, Dated 12th - 18th Dec. 09’

In a latest development in Iran’s Nuclear Controversy it was reported last week that documents that appeared in the Times of London on Dec. 14, which perhaps contributed to the US. Intelligence reports were a forgery. The paper cited an “Asian intelligence source” that newspaper with “confidential intelligence documents” on how Iran was preparing to run tests on a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion.

Iran has pursued nuclear energy technology since the 1950s, spurred by the launch of U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower's Atoms for Peace program. The program however was abandoned after the 1979 revolution, which brought to power the current Islamic regime. Iran was known to be reviving its civilian nuclear programs during the 1990s, but revelations in 2002 and 2003 of secret research into fuel enrichment and conversion raised international debate that Iran's ambitions had metastasized beyond civilian use, an allegation Iran has consistently denied.

In August 2005 in Iran, Mohammad Khatami, seen as a moderate in the west, was succeeded as president by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is perceived as a hard-line conservative. In the following Jan. 2006 Iran announced that it would resume enrichment work. Under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium, but the atomic energy association called for the program to be halted until questions about the earlier secret program were resolved.

Iran says it is simply doing what it is allowed to do under the treaty and intends only to enrich to the level needed for nuclear power station fuel with a goal to generate electricity without dipping into its oil. The United Nations Security Council voted in December 2006 to impose sanctions on Iran for failing to heed calls for a suspension of the program.

The Security Council Resolution 1737 (December 2006) mandates all UN member states "to prevent the supply, sale or transfer... of all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology which could contribute to Iran's enrichment-related, reprocessing or heavy water-related activities or to the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems". In March 2007, the Council passed resolution 1747 seeks to tighten the squeeze on Iran's nuclear and missile programmes. Imports of arms from Iran are banned and member states were told to exercise restraint in selling major arms systems to Iran. Resolution 1803 of March 2008 extended the asset restrictions and travel bans on more Iranian individuals and companies said to be involved in nuclear work. It also called for inspection of cargo going into and out of the country, and monitoring the activities of two Iranian banks.

The extent of Iran's nuclear development remains unclear. In December 2007, a US intelligence assessment contradicted the earlier 2005 assessment, claiming that the weapons portion of the Iranian nuclear program remained on hold. The report stated that the Iranian government did not appear determined to obtain nuclear weapons, although it said Iran's intentions were unclear. Yet many in the international community, including the American leadership, remain skeptical. Nonproliferation experts note Iran's ability to produce enriched uranium continues to progress but disagree on how close Iran is to mastering capabilities to weaponize.

The September 2009 revelation of a second uranium enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom deepened international suspicions surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions. On Oct. 1, 2009, talks were held between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France - as well as Germany, and led by the European Union's then foreign policy chief, Javier Solana. In this a tentative agreement was reached in principle for Iran to export most of its enriched uranium for processing. The news however raised a tumult in Iran and eventually the deal was rejected on Oct. 29.

Stratfor an online publisher of 'geopolitical intelligence’ reports that an Inter Press Service (IPS) Report emerged last week providing discrediting intelligence that the widely circulated document describing Iran’s nuclear weapons plans was fabricated. According to Stratfor analysis this counter-leak plays into the interests of the Obama administration in seeking to buy time to deal with the issue. In Oct. 2009 in a radical revision of policy President Barack Obama announced aborting missile defenses in Eastern Europe, originally being developed under the pretext of protection against the alleged missile threat from Iran. However at present the diplomatic standoff continues. §

Discussion Questions:
· In your opinion is the Iranian nuclear threat real or imagined?

· Do you see possible engagement with Iran and an ultimate resolution of the nuclear controversy under the Obama Regime?

· To what extant could international Actors like Russia, Israel and Latin American nations influence possible engagement with Iran?

Bibliography/Related Sources
August 2009 IAEA report; http://www.cfr.org/publication/20107
http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20091229_deciphering_disinformation
http://www.cfr.org/publication/16811
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/iran_timeline6.shtml
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/index.shtml
http://www.nytimes.com/info/iran-nuclear-program/
http://www.nytimes.com/info/iran-nuclear-program/#irans-nuclear-history
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4031603.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8425704.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7367475.stm

_______________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
Please Preview your comments before posting.

Zone 1- Asia: Telescopic Analysis- ‘Growing Militarization of the Gulf and Horn of Africa’

Week # 98, Dated 12th - 18th Dec. 09’

Gulf leaders have recently agreed to set up a rapid intervention force that will help states deal with any aggression against their territories, such as the recent Yemeni rebel incursion into Saudi Arabia. The Saudi navy has set up a blockade off Yemen's northern Red Sea coastline, in an effort to keep fresh supplies from reaching the rebels, who have engaged in a five-year insurgency in the north of the country to win autonomy.

Growing militarization is quite evident in the region that is a critical hub for global oil supply. In addition to recent developments historically rooted issues continue to define a volatile gulf region as well as the Horn of Africa. Analysts recognize four danger areas in the region for oil transportation, a disruption of which would have potentially paralyzing effects on world economy: [1]

§ The Straits of Hormuz
§ The Bab El-Mandab passage
§ The Sumed Pipeline
§ The Suez Canal

Strait of Hormuz: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman - the only passage from the oil-rich gulf to the Indian Ocean for maritime traffic. The Strait is among the world's most important oil chokepoints. Approximately 88 percent of all oil leaving the Persian Gulf goes via the Strait of Hormuz.[2]
The Bab el-Mandab (or Mandab Strait) connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Roughly three million barrels of oil flow through this waterway each day. Closure of the waterway would prevent tanker traffic bound from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal, primarily impairing exports to Europe.
The Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline connect the Red Sea with the Mediterranean Sea. Some 4.2 million barrels of oil transit the area each day with the bulk of product moving northbound from Saudi Arabia via the pipeline.

Regional Flash Points-
Global Actors- US War on Terror: The Iraq War is an ongoing military campaign which began on March 20, 2003, with the invasion of Iraq by a multinational force led by troops from the United States and the United Kingdom. The strategic importance of the troops present in the region also caters for regional oil politics.

Recently France’s first military facilities in the Gulf were opened deepening the government’s alliance with the United Arab Emirates and highlighting its shifting foreign policy priorities, a move some analysts see as an encouraging shift away from the Gulf's dependence on the might of Washington for its security.[3]

Africa too, according to the US Energy Information Administration, supplies the US with more than 24% of its oil. Also France’s main military base serving the Gulf region is in Djibouti, a former colony, serves as a hub for its operations. [4]

In 2007, the United States established AFRICOM, a central command base to coordinate US military operations and monitor security interests in the continent, including oil deposits and growing African-Sino relations. Some criticize that Aid to Africa is being uniquely tied to militarization, an extremely dangerous trend.

Israeli–Palestinian conflict: Israel lies along a network of oil pipelines in the region and is a significant flash point for its ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Last year the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) engaged in a military operation, "Operation Cast Lead," in the Gaza Strip, with aerial and naval strikes in an offensive that lasted for three weeks. A year on the de facto ceasefire between Israel and Hamas still holds, though conflict in the volatile region continues.

Newly Emergent Threats:
Owing to Yemen’s strategic location on the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean oil exports by other countries are influenced by the political and military status of the country. Yemen has emerged on the radar as a significant ‘threat’ in the ongoing ‘War against Terror’. The recent terror incident in an alleged al-Qaida plot to blow up an American airliner has been traced to terror cells in Yemen.

To the east, just across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen lies Somalia, yet another strategically significant and volatile region. War torn Somalia is considered a critical flash point where al Qaeda's surrogates are believed to act with impunity.

Armed Forces in the Region:[5]
The GCC, led by Saudi and Kuwaiti arms purchases, has significantly bolstered its capabilities to provide sea and air defense around the Strait of Hormuz in recent years.

In addition to the GCC forces, Coalition forces help protect the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The Combined Task Force (CTF) 150 is a multinational force whose jurisdiction includes the Strait of Hormuz. The nations of Pakistan, Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States all contribute to the approximately 15 vessels in CTF 150.

The United States remains the major foreign military presence in the Gulf with strategic air bases, logistics operations and the headquarters of the 5th Fleet in Bahrain which bears responsibility for areas including the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Indian Ocean. US military presence, although widely regarded as a necessary evil, especially for the smaller Gulf countries, is deeply unpopular among local populations.
The Gulf is of geopolitical importance both because of its gas and oil resources and because of its proximity to Iran. Historically, Gulf States have relied on external powers to safeguard their regimes from restive sections of the population, and to protect against threats from larger regional powers such as Iran or Iraq[6]. Although the GCC enjoys a thriving business relationship with Iran, most Gulf rulers believe Tehran's nuclear programme will sooner or later lead to nuclear weapons.

Piracy in the region too is a menace that threatens regional stability. The Gulf of Aden is an area known for acts of piracy. The main cause of piracy in the gulf is the lack of any viable government in Somalia. One objective for the international presence in the region is also curbing this threat and safeguarding the trade routes.

This entire region with its unique trajectory is strategically volatile. Given the multiplicity of actors, both regional as well as global, and the rapidly evolving situation on ground, a trend of increased militarization in a highly sensitive zone is quite evident. §

Bibliography
[1] http://www.expletia.co.uk/worldoilreserves.html
[2] http://hormuz.robertstrausscenter.org/about_strait
[3] http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-in-the-press/june-2009/balancing-act
[4] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/27/world/europe/27france.html
[5] http://hormuz.robertstrausscenter.org/armed_forces
[6] http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-in-the-press/june-2009/balancing-act

________________________________________________________
Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and developed jointly by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
Please Preview your comments before posting.