Monday, January 4, 2010

Zone 1- Asia: Telescopic Analysis- ‘Growing Militarization of the Gulf and Horn of Africa’

Week # 98, Dated 12th - 18th Dec. 09’

Gulf leaders have recently agreed to set up a rapid intervention force that will help states deal with any aggression against their territories, such as the recent Yemeni rebel incursion into Saudi Arabia. The Saudi navy has set up a blockade off Yemen's northern Red Sea coastline, in an effort to keep fresh supplies from reaching the rebels, who have engaged in a five-year insurgency in the north of the country to win autonomy.


Growing militarization is quite evident in the region that is a critical hub for global oil supply. In addition to recent developments historically rooted issues continue to define a volatile gulf region as well as the Horn of Africa. Analysts recognize four danger areas in the region for oil transportation, a disruption of which would have potentially paralyzing effects on world economy: [1]


§ The Straits of Hormuz
§ The Bab El-Mandab passage
§ The Sumed Pipeline
§ The Suez Canal



Strait of Hormuz: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman - the only passage from the oil-rich gulf to the Indian Ocean for maritime traffic. The Strait is among the world's most important oil chokepoints. Approximately 88 percent of all oil leaving the Persian Gulf goes via the Strait of Hormuz.[2]
The Bab el-Mandab (or Mandab Strait) connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Roughly three million barrels of oil flow through this waterway each day. Closure of the waterway would prevent tanker traffic bound from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal, primarily impairing exports to Europe.
The Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline connect the Red Sea with the Mediterranean Sea. Some 4.2 million barrels of oil transit the area each day with the bulk of product moving northbound from Saudi Arabia via the pipeline.


Regional Flash Points-
Global Actors- US War on Terror: The Iraq War is an ongoing military campaign which began on March 20, 2003, with the invasion of Iraq by a multinational force led by troops from the United States and the United Kingdom. The strategic importance of the troops present in the region also caters for regional oil politics.


Recently France’s first military facilities in the Gulf were opened deepening the government’s alliance with the United Arab Emirates and highlighting its shifting foreign policy priorities, a move some analysts see as an encouraging shift away from the Gulf's dependence on the might of Washington for its security.[3]

Africa too, according to the US Energy Information Administration, supplies the US with more than 24% of its oil. Also France’s main military base serving the Gulf region is in Djibouti, a former colony, serves as a hub for its operations. [4]

In 2007, the United States established AFRICOM, a central command base to coordinate US military operations and monitor security interests in the continent, including oil deposits and growing African-Sino relations. Some criticize that Aid to Africa is being uniquely tied to militarization, an extremely dangerous trend.

Israeli–Palestinian conflict: Israel lies along a network of oil pipelines in the region and is a significant flash point for its ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Last year the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) engaged in a military operation, "Operation Cast Lead," in the Gaza Strip, with aerial and naval strikes in an offensive that lasted for three weeks. A year on the de facto ceasefire between Israel and Hamas still holds, though conflict in the volatile region continues.

Newly Emergent Threats:
Owing to Yemen’s strategic location on the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean oil exports by other countries are influenced by the political and military status of the country. Yemen has emerged on the radar as a significant ‘threat’ in the ongoing ‘War against Terror’. The recent terror incident in an alleged al-Qaida plot to blow up an American airliner has been traced to terror cells in Yemen.

To the east, just across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen lies Somalia, yet another strategically significant and volatile region. War torn Somalia is considered a critical flash point where al Qaeda's surrogates are believed to act with impunity.

Armed Forces in the Region:[5]
The GCC, led by Saudi and Kuwaiti arms purchases, has significantly bolstered its capabilities to provide sea and air defense around the Strait of Hormuz in recent years.

In addition to the GCC forces, Coalition forces help protect the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The Combined Task Force (CTF) 150 is a multinational force whose jurisdiction includes the Strait of Hormuz. The nations of Pakistan, Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States all contribute to the approximately 15 vessels in CTF 150.

The United States remains the major foreign military presence in the Gulf with strategic air bases, logistics operations and the headquarters of the 5th Fleet in Bahrain which bears responsibility for areas including the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Indian Ocean. US military presence, although widely regarded as a necessary evil, especially for the smaller Gulf countries, is deeply unpopular among local populations.
The Gulf is of geopolitical importance both because of its gas and oil resources and because of its proximity to Iran. Historically, Gulf States have relied on external powers to safeguard their regimes from restive sections of the population, and to protect against threats from larger regional powers such as Iran or Iraq[6]. Although the GCC enjoys a thriving business relationship with Iran, most Gulf rulers believe Tehran's nuclear programme will sooner or later lead to nuclear weapons.

Piracy in the region too is a menace that threatens regional stability. The Gulf of Aden is an area known for acts of piracy. The main cause of piracy in the gulf is the lack of any viable government in Somalia. One objective for the international presence in the region is also curbing this threat and safeguarding the trade routes.

This entire region with its unique trajectory is strategically volatile. Given the multiplicity of actors, both regional as well as global, and the rapidly evolving situation on ground, a trend of increased militarization in a highly sensitive zone is quite evident. §

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